Miami-Dade is losing residents, and gaining a dangerous kind of ‘success’ | Opinion

Miami-Dade’s population shrank last year — the third-largest numeric population drop of all the counties in the nation in 2025, according to U.S. Census numbers released in late March.

The county lost an estimated 10,115 residents between July 2024 and July 2025, largely because of a decrease in international migration, according to the Census Bureau. President Trump’s immigration and mass deportation policies are probably to blame.

The population decline alone doesn’t tell you everything that’s happening in Miami-Dade. There’s another trend that’s concerning, and it’s got less to do with immigration and more to do with a topic most Miamians have experienced: the cost of living.

Housing prices, low wages and other factors are putting a squeeze on residents, pushing people to leave, as the Herald has reported. It’s happening despite all the hype about people relocating from other parts of the U.S. to the region during the pandemic.

That’s not to say no one is moving to Miami-Dade. They are, and they tend to have fairly high incomes, with an average annual salary of $178,000, according to IRS data compiled by the Jorge M. Pérez Metropolitan Center at Florida International University. Those leaving the county, meanwhile, have lower incomes, with an average salary of about $89,000. This data, which is from 2023, is based on address changes reported on income tax returns and has been tracked by Maria Ilcheva, a researcher and professor at the Metropolitan Center.

The picture that emerges from all of this information is one of concentration of wealth: Higher earners are moving here, lower-wage workers are leaving and the population as a whole has started to shrink. That’s not good for a community’s long-term economic health.

At 2.8 million people, Miami-Dade’s population is still larger than it was in 2020, but that growth can be attributed mostly to the migration of people from other countries and new births. Between 2020 and 2025, more people left Miami-Dade for other parts of Florida and the U.S. than moved here from those places. The county’s domestic net migration — meaning the number of arrivals from within the U.S. minus the number of departures — was negative 278,000 for that period, according to research by the Metropolitan Center.

The gap in average annual salaries between out-of-county arrivals and those who are leaving is about $90,000, the IRS data shows, and it confirms what many already know: South Florida is increasingly becoming a place only the wealthy can afford, whereas the middle-class struggles to get by. Will South Florida eventually become like San Francisco where even higher earners feel priced out?

Our local and state leaders should be paying attention.

Attracting wealth has many benefits for a community. Business creations in Miami-Dade have increased, Ilcheva told the Herald Editorial Board. Those new residents have more spending power, helping fuel the local economy and spurring the opening of restaurants, the construction of real estate and the growth of other industries. Despite losing people to other parts of the state and the country, like Georgia and North Carolina, Miami-Dade still became wealthier — the county gained $484 million in adjusted gross income, according to the 2023 IRS data.

But the point isn’t to just celebrate whenever another billionaire buys a home in South Florida. More wealth should translate into economic opportunities for those who are already here.

As Ilcheva said, there’s the risk that Miami-Dade could become a “victim of your own success.” The inflow of wealth puts pressure on the cost of housing and everything else. This is a problem for businesses and the region’s overall economic health.

Miami-Dade is losing mostly young workers, ages 20 to 29, without a college degree, Ned Murray, associate director of FIU’s Metropolitan Center, told the Editorial Board. For an economy that’s largely dependent on low-wage industries like hospitality and services, this is not sustainable.

Any local economy needs a workforce. It needs a middle-class. Even the wealthiest won’t like being here if their quality of life is hurt by an uneven economy. Our leaders have known this for quite some time. There are no simple fixes other than making affordability a long-term priority, not just lip service.

This story was originally published April 13, 2026 at 6:00 AM.