NBA evaluator weighs in on what Miami Heat free agents could command in coming days
When NBA free agency begins on Friday, the Miami Heat is expected to offer a generous one-year deal (with the possibility of a second-year team option) to Goran Dragic while also approaching Jae Crowder about a new one-year contract, also with a potential second-year team option.
Miami also has shown interest in keeping free agents Meyers Leonard and Derrick Jones Jr.
So what could the Heat’s free agents generate on the open market?
Here’s what a front office official with another Eastern Conference team said:
▪ He said he could see Miami giving Dragic $20 million for one year or two years and $40 million (with a team option on 2020-21).
But “in the open market, I don’t think he would get more than $12 million to $15 million because of his age (34) and the marketplace.”
I would expect the Heat and Dragic to quickly come to a deal that would pay him in that $20 million range, with a potential team option for a second year. He earned $19.2 million last season. Both sides want to strike a deal quickly.
One benefit of a second year team option: It could be used in a sign-and-trade for a free agent next summer.
▪ The official said Crowder’s “value is up. I could see him getting as much as $8 million per in the open market. The question is can he duplicate what he did early in the playoffs.”
The other issue is whether Crowder could get a multi-year deal elsewhere, which the official said is realistic.
If he gets a second guaranteed year from another team in the range of $8 million to $12 million, Miami likely would lose him, even though Crowder has said he would ideally like to return to the Heat.
In order to maintain 2021 flexibility, the Heat likely would be reluctant to give a guaranteed second season to Crowder or any of its free agents.
The Heat wants him back and Crowder would welcome returning, but there was no decision as of Thursday, according to a source.
▪ On Jones Jr., the evaluator said: “Forget the[$9.3 million] mid-level after he was phased out in the playoff. If he got even $7 million a year, I would be shocked. If he gets $15 million over two years, his agent should get a bonus. Maybe somebody gives him $4 million or $5 million.”
A Heat source said the team would like Jones back at the right price. It’s unclear what that price is or whether another team will offer more. Charlotte is among expected suitors.
Among forwards, Jones was top five in league in the field goal percentage allowed, and the athleticism will be appealing to some teams. Perhaps someone will offer a large part of the full mid-level.
▪ On Leonard, the official said: “Maybe $3 million or $4 million in a one-year deal because he can shoot. He would be a steal at the minimum, but he’s more than a minimum guy.”
I could see a team giving him more than that because stretch bigs have value. Leonard has said playing time is important to him and he will have a candid discussion with Erik Spoelstra about that.
Based on how last season ended, with Leonard out of the rotation, he seemingly would have better options elsewhere, especially with Kelly Olynyk opting into his contract for 2020-21 and Miami drafting a potential backup center in Precious Achiuwa, whose game is much different than Leonard’s.
THIS AND THAT
As AP reported, Achiuwa will wear No. 15 for the Heat. Others who have worn that jersey number for the team include Mario Chalmers, Chris Gatling, Okaro White, Wang Zhi-Zhi, Daryl Macon, Mark Blount and Terence Rencher....
Among players who were set free or opted out on Thursday that could join a long list of options with a part of the Heat’s mid-level exception: Avery Bradley, Garrett Temple and Bobby Portis (less likely after Achiuwa pickup). Gordon Hayward will get far more than exception money after opting out of $34 million with Boston, with the Knicks reportedly interested...
An official in touch with the Heat said Miami’s preference is to have several players compete for its pair of two-way contracts in training camp and preseason as opposed to quickly signing players to two-way deals, as some teams have done with undrafted rookies immediately after the draft.
Here’s our scoop from earlier Thursday on Kelly Olynyk opting into his contract and the fallout.
Here’s my Thursday piece on Brian Flores’ press conference and the Dolphins’ grand safety experiment.
Here’s my Thursday piece on the Dolphins’ network exposure due to increase around Christmas, and other notes.
Here’s my Thursday obituary on Dolphins All Pro safety Jake Scott, who died on Thursday at 75.
This story was originally published November 19, 2020 at 9:41 PM.
