When will the worst weather get to South Florida? How much rain and how much wind?
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Tropical weather in South Florida
How Florida will be affected by a tropical system heading to the state from the Gulf of Mexico.
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South Florida is starting to prepare for a system that will bring heavy rains and flooding to the region.
Miami-Dade, Broward and the Keys, all under a tropical storm warning, could start to feel tropical storm conditions Friday night through Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The lopsided system, which is no longer expected to turn into the season’s first named storm, is forecast to make landfall Saturday afternoon on Florida’s west coast, near Fort Myers. South Florida is on the wetter side of the storm, which means we’ll get the worst of the weather.
What will be the disturbance’s main threat to South Florida? And when will the bad weather start?
Here’s what to know:
What’s the main threat to South Florida?
The biggest threat to South Florida will be flash flooding from heavy rain, according to the National Weather Service. Miami-Dade and Broward are under a flood watch through Sunday. In the Keys, the flood watch is through Saturday evening.
Florida’s west coast could see up to three feet of storm surge, according to the National Hurricane Center. The Florida Keys, Dry Tortugas and Card Sound Bridge to North Miami Beach, including Biscayne Bay, could see up to two feet of storm surge.
South Florida has a moderate risk (about a 40% chance) of flash flooding Friday through Saturday morning, according to the hurricane center.
READ MORE: South Florida is under a flood watch, with advisories in effect ahead of the storm
When will the rain start?
South Florida has seen a steady stream of showers throughout the day Friday. The worst of the weather is expected Friday evening through Saturday.
How much rain are we talking about?
South Florida could see about four to eight inches of rain on Friday and Saturday, with some small areas seeing up to a foot, according to the hurricane center.
Here’s a look at some of Friday’s rain chances, based on the National Weather Service’s hourly forecast:
In Miami-Dade:
▪ 9 p.m.: 94%
▪ 10 p.m.: 91%
▪ 11 p.m.: 89%
In Broward:
▪ 9 p.m.: 93%
▪ 10 p.m.: 90%
▪ 11 p.m.: 87%
In the Keys:
▪ Key West has a 96% chance of rain from 9 p.m. to 11 p.m.
▪ Marathon has a 95% chance of rain all day.
▪ Key Largo has a 92% chance of rain from 9 p.m. to 11 p.m.
What about gusty winds?
The storm is forecast to have maximum sustained winds of 45 mph by the time it nears Florida’s west coast late Friday or early Saturday. Isolated tornadoes may also be possible.
Miami Herald reporter Devoun Cetoute contributed to this report. This article will be updated.
This story was originally published June 3, 2022 at 8:23 AM.
