Hurricane

Will Tropical Storm Elsa affect Fourth of July weather in Miami? Here’s what the forecast says

Planning to spend the Fourth of July holiday weekend sunbathing at the beach, with a margarita next to you? Barbecuing? Taking your family out on the boat?

Whatever your plans are, the National Weather Service in South Florida recommends doing it in the morning to lower your chances of getting soaked by rain. And take sunscreen. The weekend is expected to be hot, with highs in the low 90s.

The forecast for Saturday and Sunday carries a 30% to 40% chance of rain, likely in the afternoon.

“Scattered showers and thunderstorms will focus over the interior and east coast areas on Saturday. The strongest thunderstorms could contain gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall,” according to the hazardous weather outlook.

Forecasters also expect an increase of rip currents on Sunday, particularly along the state’s Gulf Coast.

The weekend weather looks slightly better in the Keys, with a 10% to 20% chance of rain until Sunday night, when the chances go up to 30%.

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Will Tropical Storm Elsa affect Florida’s Fourth of July weather?

Saturday night is forecast to be clear with little or no chance of rain in South Florida, making it prime time for early firework viewing or to enjoy the Miami Beach or Fort Lauderdale nightlife. However, expect a 30% to 40% chance of rain Sunday night.

Forecasters are also monitoring Tropical Storm Elsa as it moves through the Caribbean Sea.

The system is forecast to weaken into a tropical storm by the time it nears or approaches South Florida Monday or Tuesday. But the region could begin to feel tropical storm force winds as early as Sunday night, National Weather Service Meteorologist Robert Molleda said in a Friday morning news briefing discussing Elsa’s potential impacts on the search and rescue mission at the partially collapsed building in Surfside.

Elsa is expected to bring a risk of storm surge, wind, and rain to the Florida Keys and portions of the state early next week. However, forecasters are warning that there’s still a lot of uncertainty in the storm’s track and potential impact.

Monroe County officials are expected to make a decision Saturday on what type of “protective measures” they’ll take as the island chain braces for record crowds on the road and water this holiday weekend.

South Florida officials are recommending people begin storm preparations, just in case, such as buying food and water and fueling your car with gas.

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This story was originally published July 2, 2021 at 2:36 PM.

Michelle Marchante
Miami Herald
Michelle Marchante covers the pulse of healthcare in South Florida and also the City of Coral Gables. Before that, she covered the COVID-19 pandemic, hurricanes, crime, education, entertainment and other topics in South Florida for the Herald as a breaking news reporter. She recently won first place in the health reporting category in the 2025 Sunshine State Awards for her coverage of Steward Health’s bankruptcy. An investigative series about the abrupt closure of a Miami heart transplant program led Michelle and her colleagues to be recognized as finalists in two 2024 Florida Sunshine State Award categories. She also won second place in the 73rd annual Green Eyeshade Awards for her consumer-focused healthcare stories and was part of the team of reporters who won a 2022 Pulitzer Prize for the Miami Herald’s breaking news coverage of the Surfside building collapse. Michelle graduated with honors from Florida International University and was a 2025 National Press Foundation Covering Workplace Mental Health fellow and a 2020-2021 Poynter-Koch Media & Journalism fellow.  Support my work with a digital subscription
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