The young Dolphins veteran who emerged this season. And lingering questions about d-line
Part 7 our 10-part series with news, nuggets and other things about each Dolphins position. Today, we focus on defensive ends and tackles:
▪ Among the positives of the 2021 season: Christian Wilkins evolved from a decent NFL starter to a good one. Not Pro Bowl good, but good enough for the Dolphins to comfortably project him as a longterm starter.
The Dolphins are now expected to try to sign him to a multiyear contract extension this offseason.
Even beyond the 89 tackles that tied with Cameron Heyward for most among defensive linemen, Wilkins was credited by Pro Football Focus with 35 stops, a metric that measures plays that are particularly hurtful for the opposing offense (such as stopping a 3rd and three run short of a first down).
That was third-most among interior linemen.
No wonder PFF rated Wilkins sixth overall among all interior defenders for 2021 performance.
And his pass rush also improved; he had 4.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss, combined with 3.5 sacks and 7 tackles for loss in his first two seasons combined.
Is he an elite defensive lineman? Not at this point. But he’s reliable, productive, durable and an asset overall. The Dolphins are clearly better with him than without him, and he’s a building block moving forward.
The Dolphins plan to exercise his $10.9 million fifth-year option this offseason if they don’t first strike a multi-year deal. He’s due to make $2.6 million in 2022.
▪ Though Zach Sieler played just 46 percent of Miami’s defensive snaps, PFF rated him third-best among all NFL interior defenders, behind only Aaron Donald and Heyward.
Sieler - the best veteran waiver wire player snagged by the Dolphins during the past three seasons - had 62 tackles, two sacks, six tackles for loss and two fumble recoveries. And yet his playing time decreased slightly, from 533 snaps in 2020 to 518 in 2021 despite the extra game. His special teams snaps rose dramatically.
▪ Emmanuel Ogbah was a menace, making a case for a lucrative new deal in free agency. Ogbah is expected to test free agency beginning next week, with a return to Miami still very much a possibility.
Beyond the nine sacks and nine other tackles for loss, he batted away 11 passes (most in the league - four more than runner-up T.J. Watt). And his 61 quarterback pressures ranked 15th among edge players.
Over the past two seasons, his 126 quarterback pressures are sixth most among edge players, just three behind Joey Bosa.
PFF rated him 20th among 113 edge players, but only 58th against the run.
▪ As for Raekwon Davis, he represents the biggest shock of PFF’s rankings. The analytics site rated him the second-worst of 121 interior defenders. The Dolphins defensive staff believe he was much better than that; the team’s run defense was much better with him than without him.
One reason for PFF’s low rating: The web site ranked him 176th of 235 interior defenders as a pass rusher, with just five pressures and a sack in 204 pass rush chances.
The other reason for the low ranking - which seems too low - is Davis wasn’t among the top 50 in the league in PFF’s defensive stop metric which we referenced earlier with Wilkins.
Here’s how PFF describes that metric:
“A player’s impact in the running game is sometimes erroneously based on the total volume of tackles made. However, firstly, does that number include tackles on passing plays and, more importantly, did those tackles really count? This [metric] shows the percentage of stops per snap played only in run defense.”
Per PFF, Davis rated 87th of 198 interior linemen by making a run stop on 7.1 percent of his chances (15 overall).
Wilkins was 21st at 10.6 percent, with the 35 total.
So PFF wants more big plays from Davis, both in the run game and as a pass rusher.
In Davis’ defense, he consistently took on double teams and the defense was better when he returned from an early-season injury.
On the flip side, he has only two tackles for loss and half a sack in two NFL seasons. He must do more to reach the Pro Bowl ceiling that the Dolphins believe he has.
▪ Then there’s the mystery of Adam Butler, whose sack numbers dropped from 6.0 and 4.0 the previous two years with New England to 2.0 in his first year as a Dolphin. His tackles for loss also dropped from 8 and 6 to 2.0.
And playing time wasn’t a factor in that; he actually played more defensive snaps (591) in 2021 with Miami than he did in his final two years in New England (473, 481).
He had only two “stops” - referencing the aforementioned PFF metric - which ranked among the worst in the league factoring in his snap counts.
In his defense, he often took on double teams, and defensive line coach Austin Clark said his stats weren’t reflective of his play.
PFF rated him 78th of 100 interior defenders. He was 56th as a run defender.
With none of his $3.4 million salary guaranteed next season, the Dolphins have a decision to make. His $4.1 million cap hit would be entirely erased - with no dead money - if he’s cut.
▪ Beyond Wilkins and Ogbah and Butler, here’s the other contract information on Dolphins veteran defensive linemen:
Seiler is due $2 million next season and remains a bargain for the production. Davis will make $1.1 million in year three of his four-year rookie deal.
▪ If the Dolphins lose Ogbah in free agency, a case could be made to draft a defensive end or edge player late in the first round, with FSU’s Jermaine Johnson, Purdue’s George Karlaftis, Georgia’s Travon Walker, San Diego State’s Cameron Thomas, Houston’s Logan Hall and Texas A&M’s DeMarvin Leal all possible options at 29, though at least a couple from that group probably will be off the board by then.
Here’s part 1 of the series on Tua Tagovailoa.
Here’s part 2 of the series on the Dolphins’ wide receivers.
Here’s part 3 of the series on Mike Gesicki.
Here’s part 4 of the series on tight end options.
Here’s part 5 of the series on running backs and options to improve the position.
Here’s part 6 of the series on Dolphins cornerbacks.
