Where Dolphins can find help at wide receiver. And where each Miami receiver stands
Second of a 10-part series serving up Dolphins nuggets at each position, with wide receiver the focus today:
▪ Where have we heard this before? The Dolphins enter an offseason needing help at wide receiver.
At least they have one key piece they didn’t have a year ago with Jaylen Waddle. But there’s not a single other receiver on the roster who can assume he will be on next season’s 53-man roster.
Will Fuller, Albert Wilson, Isaiah Ford and Mack Hollins will be unrestricted free agents, and none are certain to return, though Hollins certainly has a decent chance.
Preston Williams will be a restricted free agent, but it’s more likely that the Dolphins make him an unrestricted free agent than tender him at $2.6 million.
DeVante Parker is under contract at a reasonable $5.6 million next season, but none of that money is guaranteed. His cap hit drops from $8.7 million to $5.4 million if he’s cut or traded before June 1 — which is hardly worth the savings.
His dead money cap hit drops to $2.7 million if he’s cut after June 1.
Durability was an issue with Parker last season — after not being an issue the previous two seasons — but general manager Chris Grier has always liked him, and he’s good value at that dollar amount. And even though he missed seven games in 2021 and two in 2020, keep in mind that nobody in the NFL has made more contested catches the past two seasons than Parker, per Pro Football Focus.
None of Allen Hurns’ $2.5 million salary next season is guaranteed, and he’s a toss-up at best to make the 53. His cap hit drops from $3 million to $433,000 if he’s cut, plus Miami saves the full salary.
The only other returning experienced receiver under contract: Lynn Bowden Jr., who missed the season with a hamstring injury and will battle in camp for what could be the final roster spot at the position.
He’s due to make $1 million (none of it guaranteed) in 2022, with no cap hit if he’s cut. His tweets have indicated he’s excited about Mike McDaniel’s hiring, and his skill set fits this offense.
▪ So where will help be added? Figure in free agency and the draft.
Two options loom potentially late in the first round: Alabama’s Jameson Williams and Penn State’s Jahan Dotson. Either could be available when Miami picks 29th overall, but there’s no guarantee.
Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave and Arkansas’ Treylon Burks figure to be gone by Miami’s pick.
There are at least 20 starting-caliber wide receivers in free agency, headlined by Tampa Bay’s Chris Godwin (coming off an ACL injury) and Green Bay’s Davante Adams (whose future could be impacted by Aaron Rodgers’ decision).
The best of the rest: Chicago’s Allen Robinson (36 catches for 388 yards and one touchdown — missed five games), the Chargers’ Mike Williams (67 catches for 1,027 yards and eight touchdowns), New England’s Jakobi Meyers (79 catches, 796 yards), the Jets’ Jamison Crowder (50-431), New Orleans’ Deonte Harris (33-546), Buffalo’s Emmanuel Sanders (42-626), Arizona’s A.J. Green (50-825) and Christian Kirk (75-929), the Rams’ Odell Beckham Jr. (42-519).
▪ Considering McDaniel and new wide receivers coach Wes Welker are coming from the 49ers, it’s natural to look at San Francisco’s impending free agents. But the two 49ers free agent receivers were not significant contributors there: Mohamed Sanu (15 catches, 177 yards; eight games on injured reserve) and Trent Sherfield (9-87).
One former 49ers receiver — River Cracraft — was added Thursday, but he’s primarily a special teams player.
▪ Yards after catch — a deficiency for Dolphins wide receivers in 2020 — remained a deficiency in 2021.
The Dolphins were 25th in YAC last season. The 49ers, conversely, were eighth, and YAC will be important in McDaniel’s Dolphins offense. In other words, look for the Dolphins to add receivers who are skilled at creating yards after the catch.
Per Next Gen Stats, not a single Dolphins player ranked in the top 50 in the league in YAC.
Waddle was tied for 60th at 4.6.
Tight end Mike Gesicki was 102nd at 3.9.
The next Dolphins receiver after Waddle? Parker, who finished 111th in average YAC at 3.2.
▪ Separation — a deficiency for Dolphins wide receivers in 2020 — also remained a deficiency in 2021.
Per Next Gen Stats, Parker and the Giants’ Kenny Golladay were the league’s worst qualifying receiver in average yards of separation created, at 1.7 yards per target. But Parker’s 35 contested catches since 2020 helped compensate for that.
Waddle was above average at 3.3 average yards of separation. Gesicki, a glorified receiver, finished at 2.8.
▪ PFF ranked Waddle the 18th best and most impactful receiver in football this past season, with this comment:
“Waddle took off after a subpar first month, as the 2021 sixth overall pick was one of the 10 highest-graded wide receivers in the NFL from Week 6 on. His grade on targets thrown less than nine yards downfield ranked fifth-best in the 2021 regular season.
“And there’s still a lot of untapped potential with the speedster, specifically on deep balls, as he caught only four passes targeted 20 or more yards downfield this season.”
▪ The only blemish in Waddle’s splendid rookie season? He tied for sixth in the league with six drops.
And the Dolphins’ 24 drops tied for seventh most in the league.
▪ Reception percentage (targets of passes thrown to a player that are caught) can be misleading because it doesn’t measure depth of throws.
For the record, Ford led Miami at 80 percent (12 catches in 15 targets).
Waddle caught 75.4 percent (104 for 138).
And ranking toward the bottom of the league in that category:
Parker at 54.8 (40 for 73) and Hollins at 50 percent (14 for 28). But in their defense, Hollins caught four touchdowns and Parker dropped only four of the 33 incomplete passes that were thrown to him.
▪ Here were the passer ratings of Dolphins receivers when targeted: Ford 151.0; Hollins 101.6; Waddle 91.9; Parker 74.9; Wilson 71.1; Fuller 57.3 (he played only 62 snaps); and Preston Williams 51.8.
Here’s part 1 of the series on Tua Tagovailoa and our analysis of 20-plus quarterbacks and how they fared in season three, compared to season two.
This story was originally published February 18, 2022 at 3:47 PM.
