Dolphins have good options at running back. And what metrics reveal about Miami’s backs
Part 5 of our look at every Miami Dolphins position, with notes and nuggets, with today’s focus on running back:
▪ If the inability to fix the offensive line ranks first among this organization’s personnel missteps, its refusal to sufficiently address running back cannot be far behind.
Without an above-average starting back on the roster, the options are simple:
Either draft one of the top half dozen backs after declining to do so the past two years, or sign a free agent from a class headlined by these names: Arizona’s James Conner (700 rushing yards, 3.7 per carry, 14 TDs) Tampa Bay’s Leonard Fournette (812 yards, 4.5 per carry, 8 touchdowns), Arizona’s Chase Edmonds (592, 5.1, 2 TDs), Denver’s Melvin Gordon (808 yards, 4.2 per carry, 7 TDs), Atlanta’s multi-purpose Cordarrelle Patterson (607, 4.1, 6 TDs) and the Rams’ Sony Michel (802, 4.3, 4 TDs).
And it wouldn’t be surprising if the Dolphins pursue one of the 49ers free agent running backs coached by new coach Mike McDaniel. That group includes Raheem Mostert (coming off a serious knee injury but has a sterling 5.7 career average on 284 carries) and Jeff Wilson (4.2 career per-carry average but just 3.7 last season).
Adding Mostert would seem logical; he’s expected to be ready by the start of the season. The 49ers have spoken to him about a return.
And here’s another name to keep in mind: Cleveland’s D’Ernest Johnson, who replaced the injured Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in a game against Denver last October ran for 146 yards on 22 carries and was named FedEx Ground Player of the Week.
Johnson, a restricted free agent, averaged 5.3 yards on his 100 rushing attempts.
▪ Unless the Dolphins take Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker or Iowa State’s Breece Hall at 29 (the odds are against that), they will likely to need address the position with pick 50 or with their third-round pick (a compensatory 49ers pick likely to fall between 100 and 104).
It’s unclear if Walker or Hall would be there at 50. Hall ran for 1,472 yards (5.8 per carry) and 20 touchdowns. Walker led the nation in rushing with 1,646 yards, was 15th in yards per carry (6.22) and had 18 touchdowns.
Texas A&M’s Isaiah Spiller (1,011 yards last season, 5.6 per carry) also would be an option at No. 50.
If the Dolphins take a back with that 49ers third-round compensatory pick, at least one among this group should be available: Notre Dame’s Kyren Williams (995 yards, 4.9 per carry), FIU’s D’vonte Price (682 yards, 5.3 per carry), Arizona State’s Rachaad White (1,000, 5.5 per carry). Georgia teammates James Cook ( 728 rushing yards, 6.4 per carry, 7 TDs) and Zamir White (856 yards rushing, 5.6 per carry, 11 TDs) and Alabama’s Brian Robinson (1336 rushing yards, 4.4 per carry, 14 TDs).
“I love this running back group,” said NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah, who rates Spiller as his top back. “Again, I don’t think there’s going to be one that goes in the first round. I was talking with a personnel director the other day and he said, ‘Let’s just circle the fourth round.’ You’re going to get a great back in the fourth round, especially if you want a bigger back.”
▪ Only one experienced running back is under contract: Myles Gaskin, who’s due $2.5 million (none guaranteed) in the final year of his contract.
Salvon Ahmed is an exclusive rights free agent, giving the Dolphins a chance to keep him. But his per carry average dropped from 4.3 to 2.8 and his attempts from 75 to 54.
Malcolm Brown, Duke Johnson and Phillip Lindsay are unrestricted free agents. Johnson made a strong case to return, averaging 4.6 on 71 carries.
And Lindsay also is worthy of consideration; he averaged just 3.1 on 38 attempts, but he ran hard and has a Pro Bowl in his past, albeit four years ago as a rookie.
Gerrid Doaks, who spent his rookie season on the practice squad, was given a futures contract by the Dolphins after not playing an offensive snaps in 2021.
With Gaskin likely taking one spot on the 53-man roster (barring a trade), the Dolphins essentially have two or three spots to fill on the 53.
▪ We made this point previously, but it bears repeating: For those believing McDaniel’s hiring will result in the Dolphins selecting a running back high in the draft, that’s not necessarily the case.
None of the 49ers’ leading rushers during McDaniel’s tenure there were high draft picks. In fact, San Francisco drafted only two backs in the past five drafts, both in 2021: Trey Sermon in the third round and Elijah Mitchell in the sixth. And the 49ers got far more rushing yards from Mitchell (963) than Sermon (167).
“Mike’s had a lot of success finding good running backs in that mid-late round in terms of evaluation,” Dolphins general manager Chris Grier said. “We had [Kenyan] Drake in the third round a few years ago, so that balance is right. At the end of the day, you go with your gut and that information you find out on players. We work through it and you decide the value of the player if you end up taking him, whether it’s the first round or seventh round of a free agent.”
▪ Yards after contact remained a problem for Dolphins runners, with the exception of Johnson.
Gaskin was among the league’s worst in this category, averaging 2.18 yards after contact. That was worst in the league for any player who had more than 100 carries. So Gaskin returning as a starter seems unrealistic.
Johnson averaged a robust 2.8 yards after contact after averaging just 1.5 with Houston the previous season. The 2.8 was more in line with his career mark. Brown averaged 2.7 yards after contact before his injury.
Lindsay averaged 1.2 yards after contact, down from his 1.7 average in three years in Denver.
▪ Gaskin’s overall per carry average of 3.5 was lowest among 23 running backs who carried the ball at least 170 times.
So Gaskin was given a long leash. In fact, only one other running back who received more than 100 carries had an average as low or lower: Mark Ingram (3.5 on 160 carries) and Rex Burkhead (3.5 on 122).
Overall, PFF ranked Gaskin 48th among 62 backs.
▪ Next Gen Stats uses a complex formula to calculate ‘rush yards over expected per attempt,’ measuring what a back should realistically get on a play.
Gaskin was rated sixth worst in the league in this category, averaging minus-.053 per attempt.
Gaskin ran 16.1 percent of the time against defensive looks with 8 men in the box. But 39 NFL running backs ran against such fronts more than Gaskin did.
▪ The Dolphins never were able to maximize a play that worked repeatedly in training camp, when they matched up Ahmed with a safety or linebacker for sizable gains, particularly down the sidelines.
Ahmed was targeted only 19 times, caught 12 of them for 117 yards (9.8 per reception) and dropped two.
Gaskin caught 49 of 63 for 234 yards, a measly 4.8 average, down from 9.5 in 2020. He also dropped two passes.
The former seventh-round pick has exceeded all reasonable expectations as a professional. But it’s doubtful he’s the Dolphins’ 2022 starter.
▪ PFF rated Malcolm Brown as the NFL’s best pass blocking back last season before his injury. Gaskin, Ahmed and Lindsey were rated below average; Gaskin allowed seven quarterback pressures and Lindsay permitted a sack.
Here’s part 1 of the series on Tua Tagovailoa.
Here’s part 2 of the series on the Dolphins’ wide receivers.
Here’s part 3 of the series on Mike Gesicki.
Here’s part 4 of the series on tight end options.
This story was originally published March 4, 2022 at 11:00 AM.
