Buzz on where the Miami Dolphins stand on offense entering the draft
Sizing up the Miami Dolphins’ roster heading into the draft:
QUARTERBACK
WILL BE ON THE 53-MAN ROSTER
Tua Tagovailoa
Jacoby Brissett
LONG SHOT FOR 53
Reid Sinnett
▪ Comment: The great likelihood is that Tua Tagovailoa will be Miami’s 2021 starter, with Deshaun Watson having gone from real possibility to at best, a remote possibility in the wake of his legal issues. Dolphins coaches and the front office remain fully confident that Tagovailoa can become a high-quality NFL starter. There was never any strong consideration to looking elsewhere at the position, beyond Watson.
Here’s how two-time MVP Kurt Warner assessed Tagovailoa’s strengths and weaknesses.
Pro Football Focus assessed the Brissett signing this way: “As one of the top names on the backup quarterback market, Brissett brings two seasons of starting experience with him from his time in Indianapolis — in 2017 while Andrew Luck missed time with injury and in 2019. Miami will hope he isn’t needed as a long-term starter following just a 61.0 PFF grade across those two seasons, but he does provide some security should he be forced into duty for a game or two. The Dolphins may even opt to use Brissett as the designated quarterback sneak option after he went nine-for-nine on rushing conversions with two yards or fewer to go in 2020.
“The value is solid here, all things considered, as Brissett is the latest quarterback to sign an incentive-laden, one-year deal with a base value of around $5 million. Realistically, though, this is just the going rate for a quarterback who doesn’t guarantee you a loss as soon as he trots out to the huddle.”
The Dolphins generally like what they saw in Sinnett in practices last season, but Miami likely will add a quarterback in the draft process (third day or post-draft signing) to compete with him for a spot on the practice squad.
RUNNING BACK
WILL BE ON THE 53-MAN ROSTER
Myles Gaskin
Malcolm Brown
ON THE BUBBLE FOR 53
Salvon Ahmed
FACING LONGER ODDS FOR 53
Patrick Laird
Jordan Scarlett
▪ Comment: You can almost assuredly expect one rookie running back on the roster.
The question is whether that player will be one of the draft’s top three backs (Alabama’s Najee Harris, Clemson’s Travis Etienne or North Carolina’s Javonte Williams) or a mid-round prospect such as Oklahoma State’s Chubba Hubbard or UNC’s Michael Carter. If it’s Harris/Etienne/Williams, the expectation is that player eventually would start ahead of Gaskin.
Gaskin likely either will be the starter or No. 2 back (behind a top rookie) after a breakout 2020 season in which he finished 10th in the league in average yards from scrimmage at 97.2 per game.
Brown is virtually assured of sticking and offers a physical short-yardage runner that the roster lacked, plus value on special teams and as a receiver, an area where he has been underutilized. We broke down his game here.
Ahmed would seem like a cinch to make it after averaging 4.3 yards on 73 carries and displaying impressive burst. PFF ranked him 36th of 70 qualifying NFL running backs. And he’s cheap at $780,000 next season.
But here’s the key with Ahmed: He missed three games last season and must stay healthy. If he’s not, Laird — who has value on special teams — could beat him out for the No. 4 job.
The Dolphins want an extended look at Scarlett, a fifth-round pick of the Carolina Panthers out of UF in 2019.
It’s conceivable Miami could keep five backs: a rookie draft pick, Gaskin, Brown, Ahmed and the winner of the competition among Laird, Scarlett and an undrafted rookie.
WIDE RECEIVER
WILL BE ON THE 53-MAN ROSTER
Will Fuller
DeVante Parker (provided he’s not surprisingly traded; more on that in a minute)
LIKELY TO BE ON THE 53-MAN ROSTER
Preston Williams
Lynn Bowden Jr.
ON THE BUBBLE FOR 53-MAN ROSTER
Jakeem Grant
Albert Wilson
Allen Hurns
Robert Foster
Mack Hollins
Malcolm Perry
LONG SHOTS FOR 53
Kirk Merritt
Kai Locksley
▪ Comment: It’s difficult to envision everyone in the “on the bubble” category to make it to training camp, especially with the Dolphins needing to clear cap space to sign their draft class. (They have $9 million in space and need just more than $10 million to sign a draft class.)
There would be cap savings by cutting Wilson or Hurns, as explained here.
Grant has value on special teams; his 11.4 average on punt returns was third in the league last season, and there’s no one else on the roster who can provide that skill.
The Hollins re-signing was surprising because Miami signed a potential replacement “gunner” on special teams with the speedy Foster, who we wrote about here. From a special teams standpoint, it would be helpful if Hollins or Foster makes the team, but that likely means cutting Hurns and Wilson.
If the Dolphins select a receiver high in the draft — as many expect — that would be a 13th receiver and fifth positioned to make the team, with Parker, Fuller, Williams and Bowden.
The upshot, in that scenario, is there would be room on the 53-man roster for likely only one among Grant, Wilson, Hurns, Foster, Hollins, Perry, Merritt and Locksley.
Unless...
The Dolphins deal Parker for a second-day draft pick. While there’s no indication they’re exploring that, NBC’s Peter King noted this week: “Knowing how smart a personnel guy Chris Grier is, it would not surprise me now, knowing he was in position to get a great receiver, if he tried to move one of his wideouts— maybe even DeVante Parker (just 12.6 yards per catch last year, and now 28)—if the compensation was right.”
At least two among Ja’Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle are expected to be on the board when Miami picks sixth, and so might tight end/pseudo wide receiver Kyle Pitts. SI.com’s Albert Breer reported that the Eagles expect Cincinnati to select Chase at No. 5.
If Atlanta takes Pitts at No. 4 and Cincinnati opts for Chase at No. 5, that leaves the Dolphins likely with Smith or Waddle at No. 6, with a chance either of those could be secured in a slight trade-down.
TIGHT END
WILL BE ON THE 53-MAN ROSTER
Mike Gesicki (unless traded)
Durham Smythe
LIKELY TO MAKE 53
Adam Shaheen
Cethan Carter
UNLIKELY TO MAKE 53
Chris Myarick
▪ Comment: A Gesicki trade becomes a good possibility if the Dolphins draft Kyle Pitts sixth overall, because there would be duplication in skills between the players and Gesicki will be seeking a big contract before potential free agency in 11 months.
Dolphins coaches have repeatedly raved about Smythe’s value, and he’s in line for a potential contract extension, with his deal set to expire after 2021.
Shaheen played well enough last season to earn a two-year extension worth up to $7.85 million. He will make $1.7 million next season, and $1.5 million of that is guaranteed.
The decision to sign Carter, who has special teams value, pretty much committed Miami to keeping four tight ends, though Carter also can be used as an H-back.
Carter’s three-year deal can be worth as much $8.7 million with incentives and includes $2.7 million guaranteed.
It’s difficult to imagine Miami keeping a fifth tight end, meaning a Gesicki trade is logical if Pitts is Miami’s pick at No. 6.
Myarick, who has spent two seasons on the practice squad, likely will get competition from a player added during or after the draft.
OFFENSIVE LINE
WILL BE ON THE 53-MAN ROSTER
Austin Jackson
Robert Hunt
Ereck Flowers
Solomon Kindley
Matt Skura
Jesse Davis
ON THE BUBBLE FOR 53
Michael Deiter
Adam Pankey
Cameron Tom
UNLIKELY TO MAKE THE 53-MAN ROSTER
Jonathan Hubbard
Tyler Gauthier
Durval Queroz-Neto
Comment: The most intriguing battle will be Davis, Hunt and Kindley competing for two spots on the right side of the line, with Hunt probably a front-runner after ranking fifth-best of 37 qualifying right tackles over the final six weeks of the season (per Pro Football Focus).
Most interesting roster battle, using the word interesting loosely? Deiter and former Saints backup Tom competing for the backup center job.
It’s also possible the Dolphins could add one of the draft’s top centers to battle Skura, a good player who lost his starting job in Baltimore briefly last season because of poor snaps. Here’s what the Dolphins are getting with Skura.
Most of the draft’s centers have guard experience, and that player also could compete with Kindley, Davis and Hunt at right guard.
Davis also likely will back up Jackson at left tackle, replacing Julien Davenport, who signed with the Colts.
While the Dolphins drafting another tackle in the first couple of days of the draft cannot be ruled out (see below item on Brian Flores), that would be a depressing concession that Jackson isn’t what they hoped he would be after using the Minkah Fitzpatrick pick to select him (Pittsburgh’s selection at No. 18).
The view here: It’s too soon to make that decision on Jackson. Another year is needed to develop him and evaluate him.
Jackson wasn’t great as a rookie, but he wasn’t abysmal either.
FLORES CHECKS OUT SEWELL
Dolphins coach Brian Flores watched left tackle Penei Sewell and Oregon’s other prospects in person at the Ducks’ Pro Day on Friday, per NFL Network.
Flores attended UF’s Pro Day earlier this week, where he watched and spoke with tight end Kyle Pitts, another potential option at No. 6.
Flores previously spent time with Alabama receiver DeVonta Smith at the Senior Bowl. And Dolphins general manager Chris Grier watched LSU receiver Ja’Marr Chase at LSU’s Pro Day this week.
Two or three among Pitts, Smith, Chase and Sewell are expected to be available when the Dolphins select sixth overall.
We’ll do this exercise on defense this weekend.
Here’s my Friday Heat piece on Victor Oladipo’s debut and reaction and feedback from Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo to the Heat’s revamped roster.
Here’s my Friday media column on what ESPN is doing in the wake of eyebrow-raising comments from Dan Orlovsky and Kirk Herbstreit, who criticized Orlovsky.
This story was originally published April 2, 2021 at 3:45 PM.
