A look at how the Heat can improve its roster in coming months. Key questions and answers
Part 3 of a 4-part series on the state of the Miami Heat franchise and its future.
Well, here’s a curveball: For a team that has spent years planning on carving out substantial cap space in 2021, the Heat’s most probable path to improving this summer appears to be staying above the cap instead.
Some questions and answers:
▪ How can the Heat address its glaring need for a power forward before the March 25 trade deadline?
We addressed that in this comprehensive piece last this week, with Houston’s P.J. Tucker, San Antonio’s Rudy Gay and Sacramento’s Nemanja Bjelica among realistic options. Fortunately for Miami, Kelly Olynyk has begun to play better in recent games after an extended slump.
▪ So who are the top 2021 free agents?
Among unrestricted free agents, Kawhi Leonard, Jrue Holiday, Victor Oladipo, Kyle Lowry, Spencer Dinwiddie (likely to decline a $12.3 million player option with Brooklyn), Andre Drummond, Dennis Schroder, Mike Conley and Demar DeRozan (who’s having a fabulous year for the Spurs).
Among other unrestricted free agents: Will Barton (if he opts out of $14.7 million from Denver), Kelly Oubre Jr., Josh Richardson, Tim Hardaway Jr., Evan Fournier, Daniel Theis, Paul Millsap, Derrick Rose, Tucker, Gay, JJ Redick, Danny Green, Richaun Holmes, Enes Kanter, DeMarcus Cousins, Lou Williams, Reggie Jackson, Hassan Whiteside, LaMarcus Aldridge and Markieff Morris.
And don’t forget the Lakers’ Montrezl Harrell and Clippers’ Serge Ibaka, who have player options.
Among restricted free agents, Atlanta’s John Collins, Chicago’s Lauri Markkanen and New Orleans’ Lonzo Ball would all warrant consideration if any want to force a trade elsewhere.
▪ How much cap space will the Heat have this summer?
If — over the coming months — the Heat doesn’t trade away or acquire a player whose contract runs past this season and doesn’t exercise 2021-22 teams options on Goran Dragic, Meyers Leonard, Andre Iguodala and Avery Bradley, then Miami could enter the 2021 offseason with $29 million in cap space if it doesn’t keep restricted free agents Duncan Robinson and Kendrick Nunn, or $22 million or $25 million if it keeps Robinson and Nunn, who both have modest cap hits regardless of what Miami pays them.
Either way, that cap space is less than the $33.7 million needed for a max contract slot under current projections of a $112.4 million cap.
The NBA has said the cap could be as high as $120 million, but The Athletic reported that $112.4 million is the expectation.
Keep in mind that Bam Adebayo’s $28.1 million salary for 2021-22 would rise by nearly $3 million next season if he’s Defensive Player of the Year and by nearly $4 million if he’s first team All NBA.
▪ Would the Heat have the ability to carve out enough cap space to sign a max free agent in that scenario without a sign-and-trade (presuming Adebayo isn’t All NBA first team because of Nikola Jokic’s and Joel Embiid’s greatness this season)?
In that scenario, while it would be possible to give a max contract to a free agent, it would not be totally practical.
Clearing out max space (with a $112 million cap) would require Miami to trade Tyler Herro and Precious Achiuwa for only future draft picks, with the picks coming to Miami no sooner than 2022.
The Heat would be unable to keep any players with team options (Goran Dragic, Meyers Leonard, Avery Bradley, Andre Iguodala) in this scenario.
Hypothetically, if the Heat purged all six of those players in order to sign Olapido to a max deal with cap space (and no sign and trade), such a scenario would leave the Heat with Jimmy Butler, Adebayo, Oladipo, Robinson, eight players at the minimum and another player with Miami’s $5.3 million room exception. Nunn might be able to be retained in that scenario, but it’s close.
(This factors in Ryan Anderson’s $5.2 million stretch cap hit and required minimum cap holds for empty roster spots.)
Here’s the reason Robinson could be kept in that scenario: As ESPN’s Bobby Marks recently noted, Robinson’s 2021-22 Heat cap hit — regardless of what he’s paid by Miami — will drop from $4.7 million to $1.7 million if Miami allows him to become an unrestricted free agent instead of a restricted free agent. So the Heat hypothetically could pay him $18 million a year and his cap hit would only be $4.7 million or $1.7 million.
The Heat - in this scenario — also could keep Herro and Achiuwa and try to convince Oladipo to sign with Miami for a contract starting at $7 million below max money. But would Oladipo take more than $30 million less (over four seasons) than a potential max deal elsewhere simply to sign with the Heat? Seems doubtful unless he doesn’t play great for Houston in the coming months.
What about Miami doing this precise thing to try to sign Kawhi Leonard, the best free agent in the 2021 class? Impossible, because Leonard’s first-year max ($40.5 million if the cap is $112 million) is higher than Oladipo’s max ($33.7 million) because of years of service. Bucks impending free agent guard Jrue Holiday also has the $40.5 million first-year max.
▪ OK, so using cap space to sign an All Star would be challenging, to say the least. What if Miami instead operates as an over-the-cap team and uses a sign-and-trade to acquire a free agent?
In that scenario, Miami could exercise Dragic’s $19.4 million team option and Bradley’s $5.9 million team option with the intent of keeping them.
The Heat could keep restricted free agents Robinson and Nunn ($4.7 million or $2.1 million cap hold) on their books — instead of renouncing them — with the intent of keeping either one of them or using them in a sign-and-trade.
They could exercise Iguodala’s $15 million team option or Leonard’s $10.2 million team option for the purpose of using one or both to facilitate a sign-and-trade.
If Miami traded Robinson and Nunn (this is permitted even though Robinson and Nunn are restricted free agents), plus Leonard and a draft pick to Houston in a sign-and-trade for Oladipo this summer, such a scenario would allow Miami to move forward with Butler, Adebayo, Oladipo, Dragic, Bradley, Herro, Achuiwa and KZ Okpala.
Those eight players (plus Anderson’s $5.2 million) would combine to make $136.9 million in 2021-22 and that’s significant because teams that make sign-and-trades must operate under a hard cap the following season.
So if the cap is $112 million and the tax line is $138.9 million as projected, that would mean Miami could not exceed $144.6 million salary in 2021-22. That would be do-able in this Oladipo scenario, as long as the final four players signed by the Heat are on minimum deals.
But for those wondering whether the Heat could execute a sign-and-trade for, say, Oladipo or John Collins at close to max money - and keep Robinson at big money - it would be impossible from a hard cap standpoint unless the Heat dumps Dragic.
Perhaps the Rockets would settle for a future No. 1 pick, Nunn, Okpala and significant cap filler for Oladipo if he tells them in July that he wants to go to Miami. That would be the best case scenario for Miami. But Miami might need to give up Robinson in that scenario.
Keep in mind that in a sign-and-trade, Miami cannot afford both Oladipo, plus Robinson and Dragic and stay under the hard cap. It would mean Miami would need to settle for Oladipo and either Robinson or Dragic.
Here’s the other challenge with this: Miami would need to enter free agency knowing it can get a free agent in a sign and trade before exercising team options on Leonard and Iguodala for the purpose of using them in that sign-and-trade.
The Heat likely could get this information but it’s not certain because the top free agents might enter free agency without knowing where they will sign.
▪ So how could the Heat avoid the hard cap that is triggered by a sign-and-trade?
By trading for an impending free agent — such as Oladipo, Lowry, Collins, Markannan, DeRozan or Ball — before the March 25 trade deadline. (For those wondering about Chicago’s blossoming Zach LaVine, the Bulls are unlikely to trade him, according to the Chicago Tribune. Beal, at this point, remains unavailable.)
In that scenario, the Heat would operate next summer as an over-the-cap team, could exercise the team options on Dragic and Bradley, and would not operate as a hard capped team. (Miami would be hard-capped only if it used the $3.6 million bi-annual exception in this scenario. But Miami simply wouldn’t use the bi-annual to avoid that.)
Though the Heat wouldn’t be hard-capped in that scenario, paying Oladipo and both Dragic and Robinson - as opposed to Oladipo and Dragic or Robinson - would leave Miami with a tax bill.
Dragic and Leonard can nix trades this season but that right to refuse a trade expires on the day their team options for 2021-22 are exercised.
Here’s part 1 of my Heat series examining areas where the Heat’s performance has changed since its NBA Finals run, and what players say about all of this.
Here’s part 2 of my Heat series examining changes in individual Heat players’ games.
Please check back Tuesday for part 4, exploring another interesting potential Heat avenue to improve, and more.
Here’s my Monday Miami Hurricanes 6-pack with lots of news.
Here’s my Monday Miami Dolphins 6-pack with lots of news.
This story was originally published February 8, 2021 at 5:10 PM.
