Exploring differences in Heat players from a year ago. And Bradley sidelined for weeks
In comparing the Heat’s rousing success in the Disney bubble to its struggles early this season, the disparity in several team statistics stand out, particularly Miami’s points per 100 possessions (way down), turnovers (way up) and three-point percentage permitted (much worse from a defensive standpoint than in Disney).
The fact Miami has been without Jimmy Butler for 12 games, Avery Bradley for 10 games, Tyler Herro for seven, Goran Dragic for five and Bam Adebayo for two also has been a significant factor. And now Bradley is out for three weeks to a month with a calf injury, according to a source.
But differences in individual player performance also tell a part of the story in Miami’s regression from 14-7 in the playoffs to 7-14 so far this season.
Exploring areas where Heat rotation players have experienced diminished statistical returns this year, compared with their play last season or in the playoffs:
▪ Though Herro is scoring well in his first year as a starter (17.2 points per game), his three-point shooting mysteriously has declined, from 38.9 last season to 32.5 percent.
Herro was an assassin on threes in the clutch as a rookie, shooting 9 for 19 in the regular season and 6 for 13 in the playoffs. So on all three-pointers during the final five minutes of games with a margin of five points or fewer (the NBA’s definition of ‘clutch’), Herro was 15 for 32 last season, remarkable under-pressure efficiency for a rookie.
This season, he’s 2 for 10 on clutch threes and 4 for 17 overall in the clutch, entering Friday’s home rematch with Washington.
On the flip side, Herro has continued to expand his offensive game, raising his overall shooting percentage from 42.8 to 45.3. He’s one of the NBA’s better rebounding guards (6.1 per game).
▪ Kelly Olynyk has gone from one of the NBA’s better distance-shooting power rotation players to below average, statistically, this season.
After shooting 40.6 percent on threes last season (and 37 percent in his career), he stands at 33 percent on threes (42 for 126). His overall shooting percentage (41.2) would be by far the worst of his career if it doesn’t improve.
And here’s the other big difference: Olynyk, who came off the bench in postseason, allowed the player he was guarding to shoot just 43.4 percent in the 2020 playoffs.
This season? He’s permitting players to shoot 51.4 percent, fourth-worst among all NBA forwards who have defended at least 200 shots.
▪ Duncan Robinson’s three-point accuracy is still very good (41.4). But last year it was otherworldly at 44.6, the highest ever for a player who hit as many threes (270) and isn’t named Steph Curry. Coincidentally, Robinson and Curry are tied for 44th in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage this season.
▪ The sample size is still awfully small for Butler, who has played in nine games and played well (18.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, 6.0 assists). His defense has been exemplary: The player he’s guarding is shooting 35 percent (28 for 80).
Though it’s too soon to make any conclusion, his remarkable clutch playoff shooting (12 for 21 from the field) hasn’t carried over yet to this season (3 for 10 from the field in the clutch). His clutch free throw shooting remains elite: 22 for 24 in the playoffs, 6 for 6 this season.
Here’s one glaring difference: After shooting 15 for 43 on threes in the playoffs (34.9 percent), he’s 0 for 13 on threes this season.
▪ Adebayo’s offensive growth — particularly his mid-range game and free throw shooting — has been impressive, and he has raised his scoring average from 8.9 to 15.9 to 19.9 points over three seasons. He has looked like a top-12 NBA player at times.
But if you’re looking for areas where there hasn’t been statistical improvement, his turnovers are up (3.1, from 2.8 last season and 2.5 in the playoffs) and his rebounding is slightly down (9.4, from 10.2 last season and 10.3 in playoffs).
The player he’s defending is shooting 44.6 percent, compared with 43.2 percent last season.
▪ Dragic’s three-point shooting is down only slightly from a year ago and though he’s had a tough week shooting from the field (5 for 20 in the Charlotte and Washington losses), his overall numbers are solid and comparable to last season, with his scoring down slightly from 16.2 to 14.7.
One issue is he’s averaging a career high 3.1 turnovers. Players he’s guarding are shooting 44 percent, compared with 40 percent last season, though there’s some randomness to that metric for wing players.
▪ Andre Iguodala, still strong defensively, is shooting a staggering 10 percentage points worse than his career mark - 36.5 compared with 46.5. He’s 31 for 85 from the field this season. He shot 43.2 in his 19 games with Miami during the 2019-20 regular season.
▪ Kendrick Nunn’s three-point accuracy has dropped, from 35 percent in his rookie season to 31 now, though his overall numbers aren’t dramatically different from last season, when he was second in Rookie of the Year voting.
BRADLEY OUT
Bradley’s injury, which could sideline him a month, continues a string of misfortune for the veteran guard.
He recently returned after missing eight games due to COVID-19 injury, then missed two games with a right knee contusion and is now out with the calf injury sustained in Wednesday’s loss to Washington. He has appeared in 10 of the Heat’s 21 games, starting once.
One of the Heat’s top perimeter defenders, Bradley is averaging 8.5 points, 1.8 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game while shooting 47 percent from the field and 42.1 percent on 3-point attempts. He signed a two-year, $12 million contract in November, with a second-year team option for 2021-22.
His absence potentially opens a rotation spot for Nunn, who hasn’t been used in the past three games. Max Strus and/or Gabe Vincent also could be in line for more playing time.
This is part 2 of a 4-part series on the state of the Miami Heat amid this 7-14 start. Here’s part 1 on key team areas where Miami has regressed and Heat player reaction.
This story was originally published February 5, 2021 at 12:30 AM.
