Was the Dolphins’ dismantling decision a wise one? How it looks on offense two years later
When Miami Dolphins owner Stephen Ross threw his hands up in the air 18 months ago and decided he must try something new to stop the hamster-wheel cycle of six-, seven- and eight-win seasons, not everyone internally agreed with the start-from-scratch approach.
Though Adam Gase was ready to move on from quarterback Ryan Tannehill had he not been fired, at least one Dolphins front office-official believed keeping Tannehill and changing the supporting cast was a more prudent approach than taking a blowtorch to the roster.
Why are we bringing this up?
Because a year-and-a-half removed from the most important decision of Ross’ stewardship, there’s now more data — incomplete data, mind you — but more data to reflect on the wisdom of that franchise-altering move.
Ross’ decision to sacrifice a season — and opt for a total rebuild — looks like the right decision, but with this enormous caveat: if Tua Tagovailoa is a franchise quarterback, if the Dolphins selected the right offensive tackles (Austin Jackson, Robert Hunt) and if the 2020 free agent haul is as good as the Dolphins think it is.
Ross appears to have upgraded at coach, considering Brian Flores and his assistants extracted five wins from a team with two-win talent. But also keep in mind that Gase won 10 games in his first season before floundering in his next two.
During the next two days, we will take a look back, by position, at the players jettisoned, who replaced them, and whether the Dolphins are genuinely better off now.
One caveat: We know the 2018 Dolphins likely would have added and replaced players had Ross not opted for a total rebuild. But their cap situation wasn’t good, and there’s obviously no way of knowing what the Gase/Mike Tannenbaum leadership would have done the past two offseasons had they remained here, though Gase planned to explore Teddy Bridgewater and other options to replace Tannehill.
To borrow ESPN’s phrasing for LeBron James’ free agent choice in 2010, we will discuss whether the Dolphins are better off since The Decision (to rebuild), or before The Decision:
QUARTERBACK
We all know Tannehill went from seven season of uneven play in Miami (87 passer rating) to one brilliant 10-start stretch in Tennessee (117.5).
We also know he was buoyed by a Titans running game and offensive line of higher quality than he ever had in Miami.
And we know that had he stayed, he would have earned $21 million last season and $19 million this season. And we know the Titans agreed to pay him $24.5 million, $29 million and $27 million the next three seasons.
We don’t know what Tagovailoa will become. But this much is clear: He is an infinitely better prospect coming out of college than Tannehill was, with a ceiling considerably higher. And he will be infinitely cheaper the next three years, with base salaries of less than $3 million each season, compared with Tannehill’s combined $80.5 million.
We also know this: We would prefer Ryan Fitzpatrick as our top backup over 2018 backup Brock Osweiler, who’s out of the league.
Edge: The Dolphins appear much better off long-term at quarterback since The Decision, even though Tannehill was better than Fitzpatrick last season and even though Miami has netted nothing so far from overpaying for Josh Rosen (second- and fifth-round picks).
RUNNING BACK
Unable to persuade Kenyan Drake to stay long-term, the Dolphins dealt him to Arizona for what eventually became veteran running back Matt Breida in a trade from San Francisco. Miami also moved on from Frank Gore.
So from that 2018 team, the Dolphins have essentially replaced Drake (4.8 career average) and Gore (3.7, 4.6, 3.6 average the past three years) with Breida (5.0 career average) and Jordan Howard (4.3).
One longtime NFL evaluator said Miami is better at the position than it was in 2018, because this is the 37-year-old Gore, not the in-his-prime Hall of Famer. But Miami’s long-term bell cow at the position is likely still in college.
Edge: Better off slightly since The Decision, considering Drake didn’t want to be here and it would be difficult to find many tandems with better career rushing averages than Miami’s new duo.
TIGHT END
This is the one position not dramatically affected by the rebuild. Mike Gesicki and Durham Smythe were here in 2018, again in 2019 and remain in 2020, though Smythe will need to fend off former Bears second-rounder Adam Shaheen to keep the No. 2 job.
Nick O’Leary and A.J. Derby are gone from that 2018 season, which hardly moves the needle even though O’Leary had some good moments here.
But there’s one reason Miami is better since The Decision: The move from Shane Day to George Godsey as tight ends coach was a major reason for Gesicki’s improvement, according to multiple sources.
Godsey helped Gesicki morph from a No. 2 or No. 3 pass-catching specialist to a potential long-term starter if the Dolphins are OK with a pseudo-wide receiver playing most of its snaps at the position. (And that’s a viable path in today’s NFL.)
The new Dolphins staff smartly and dramatically reduced the number of snaps Gesicki was asked to block on running plays.
Edge: Better off since The Decision, thanks to better coaching and Gesicki’s diligence in working to improve.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Miami has gone from DeVante Parker, Danny Amendola, Kenny Stills, Albert Wilson, Jakeem Grant, Leonte Carroo and Isaiah Ford in 2018 to a better Parker, a better Ford, Preston Williams, Wilson, Grant, Allen Hurns and Gary Jennings.
So the Dolphins essentially have replaced 34-year-old Amendola (62-678-1 TD for Lions last season) and 27-year-old Stills (40-561-4 TDs) with the promise of Williams, the undrafted gem who had 32-428-3 touchdowns in eight games before his season-ending knee injury.
For the future, I would rather have Williams (due $850,000 this season) instead of Amendola (will make $5 million for Lions this season) and Stills ($7 million this season).
And here’s the other factor: Karl Dorrell, in his one year as Dolphins wide receivers coach, extracted far more from Parker than predecessor Ben Johnson did. Now luck was also a factor here, because Parker was healthier for this new staff than he was for the old staff.
With Dorrell having left to become Colorado’s head coach, the Dolphins must hope that promoted assistant Josh Grizzard can keep Parker at the level that Dorrell helped him achieve.
In the 2018 Dolphins’ defense, Wilson was more productive for Gase than he was last season, though I would attribute that almost entirely to health.
Edge: Even. The case for being better off since The Decision is built on the upside of Williams, who one longtime NFL personnel executive said has the potential to be a No. 2 long-term or at worst, a No. 3 boundary receiver.
But Stills, Amendola and the version of Wilson who performed much better under Gase gave Miami an arguably better group in 2018 than it has now.
OFFENSIVE LINE
Besides quarterback, this is the area where there’s not enough data yet to know if Miami is better off.
The 2018 line: Laremy Tunsil and Ja’Wuan James at tackle, Daniel Kilgore at center and Jesse Davis and Ted Larsen (among others) at guard.
The potential 2020 line: Rookie Austin Jackson (or veteran Julién Davenport) and Jesse Davis at tackle, Ted Karras at center and Ereck Flowers and either Hunt or Michael Deiter or Danny Isidora or Solomon Kindley or Shaq Calhoun at guard. It’s possible Hunt could play right tackle this season, with Davis flipping over to right guard.
With the benefit of hindsight, the Dolphins were fortunate that Denver outbid them for James 17 months ago, because James played in only three games because of a knee injury.
And yes, we know, there’s no guarantee his knee would have been injured if he played in Miami, but durability had always been a question with James, who signed a four-year, $52 million deal that Miami would have regretted if it had matched.
As for Tunsil, he was pretty good for Houston, but not dominant, if you believe the Pro Football Focus rankings, which ranked him 21st among all tackles last season.
And re-signing him — a year before free agency — required a bundle: Per The Houston Chronicle’s Aaron Wilson, Tunsil’s new $76.35 million deal includes a $22 million average salary and cap figures of $14.1 million, $19.4 million, $21.1 million and $21.75 million.
As a reminder, the Dolphins dealt Tunsil, wide receiver Stills, a 2020 fourth-round pick and a 2021 sixth-round selection to Houston in exchange for tackle Davenport, cornerback Johnson Bademosi (cut last season), a 2020 first-round pick, and first- and second-round picks in 2021.
So far, the Dolphins used the first of those first-rounders to move down from 26 to 30, where they selected cornerback Noah Igbinoghene and after a subsequent trade, Georgia guard Kindley in the fourth round.
And the Dolphins still have Houston’s first- and second-rounder next year, meaning the possibility of three blue-chip players (Igbinoghene and two others).
So I do that trade again in a heartbeat.
As for the interior of the line: Two NFL personnel men said they would prefer Karras over Kilgore, who managed only four games in 2018 due to injury and was replaced by Travis Swanson. Flowers, based on his one season at guard for Washington, is a clear upgrade over Larsen.
The unknown is what Jackson and Hunt will become, and that’s a big unknown.
Edge: Tunsil is better than any lineman Miami has, but the Dolphins organizationally are better off since The Decision, while factoring in the big draft-pick haul for Tunsil.
ROSTER MOVES
The Dolphins released cornerback Ryan Lewis (who appeared in eight games last season and started three), took undrafted rookie defensive tackle Benito Jones off the COVID-19 list and claimed defensive tackle Ray Smith off waivers from San Francisco. Smith, a undrafted former standout at Boston College, was on the 49ers’ and Lions’ practice squads last season.
Miami has 81 players, which is the most permitted if it wants to be able to conduct its work the next two weeks without being required to separate quarterbacks and rookies from veteran players.
No Dolphins player today opted out of the 2020 season or went on the COVID-19 list.
Coming tomorrow: Comparing the pre- and post-decision Dolphins on defense.
Here’s my Wednesday piece with the latest on the Marlins’ soap opera, with 16 players having tested positive for COVID-19 and MLB hesitating to pay them.
Here’s my Wednesday Heat notes, including the team planning to play in front of sellouts next season but the union saying not so fast.
Here’s my Wednesday Heat story on Heat playoff permutations, and a warning issued.
This story was originally published July 29, 2020 at 6:00 PM.
