Would Miami Heat be better off getting Pacers than 76ers in playoffs? A warning issued
A potential conundrum looms for the Heat in two weeks, one hardly unprecedented but fascinating nevertheless:
If Miami has the opportunity to help determine its first-round opponent, should the Heat do so? (Perhaps.)
And would it do so? (Probably not.)
The Heat enters the NBA restart fourth in the East, likely to play either No. 5 Indiana or No. 6 Philadelphia in the first round, with both of those teams owning the same record, two games behind the Heat.
By losing to the Pacers in both their sixth seeding game and the final of Miami’s eight seeding games, the Heat could conceivably increase the chance of playing Indiana in the first round.
And the Pacers would appear the better matchup for Miami than the 76ers would be, because Indiana All-Star forward Domantas Sabonis is out indefinitely (and no longer in the Disney bubble) with plantar fasciitis in his left foot, and All-Star guard Victor Oladipo is still deciding if he will play at all after looking rusty in his 14-game return from a January 2019 torn quadriceps.
But the Heat — under Erik Spoelstra — hasn’t shown a penchant for late-season manipulation of the standings.
And for the second time this week, a Van Gundy brother advised the Heat not to root for Indiana in the first round, even though the Pacers would appear a more favorable matchup than a healthy Philadelphia team.
First, it was Jeff Van Gundy expressing that sentiment on an ABC/ESPN conference call on Monday. On Tuesday, it was Stan Van Gundy conveying the same message during a TNT conference call with Reggie Miller.
And Stan Van Gundy made that point even while acknowledging he would favor the 76ers in a potential first-round series with Miami.
“That whole idea of wanting to play anybody, 95 percent of the time it backfires and kicks you in the [butt],” Stan Van Gundy said. “Don’t be hoping to get a certain opponent.
“We end up underestimating Indiana every damn year. No team coached by Nate McMillan is going to be an easy out. Whether Sabonis plays or doesn’t play, those guys are going to compete and find ways to stay in games. No one is breezing through a series with Indiana.
“Do I think they’re as good as Miami or Philly? No. I think they are more on the level — especially without Sabonis — as Orlando or Brooklyn. If you’ve got Indiana and think you are going to win four games by 15 points a night, it’s not happening. They will defend, they will not beat themselves and they will compete their [butts] off every night. Downplaying Indiana is a mistake.”
Miller cautioned that even though “all teams are licking their chops to see Indiana, especially if Sabonis doesn’t come back,” that would be unwise. “Keep rooting to play Indiana and see what happens,” Miller warned.
The Heat went 3-1 against Philadelphia this season and 2-0 against Indiana. The 76ers don’t have any serious injuries, though All-Star center Joel Embiid was held out of the team’s third scrimmage for cautionary reasons because of right calf tightness. 76ers coach Brett Brown said the injury is not a concern.
The 76ers have made a personnel change, moving point guard Ben Simmons to a point forward role, inserting point guard Shake Milton in the starting lineup and shifting Al Horford to the bench.
The Heat was in a similar situation before its most recent playoff appearance, with an opportunity to manipulate the standings to finish seventh in the East and play a second-seeded Boston team that began that 2018 playoffs without three of its best players — Gordon Hayward, Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart.
Instead, Miami played its regulars (except Goran Dragic, who was given the night off to rest a troublesome knee) in a 116-109 overtime win against Toronto in their regular-season finale, which assured Miami of the sixth seed and a matchup with Philadelphia that ultimately proved too daunting. The 76ers won the series 4 to 1.
Losing two games to Indiana could help keep the Pacers ahead of Philadelphia but wouldn’t necessarily mean a Heat-Pacers first-round series, of course.
Miami could fall as low as sixth, meaning a first-round series with Boston, which would probably create the most difficult first-round matchup among the Heat’s three possible first-round opponents.
And there’s a small chance Miami could rise to third, with the No. 3 Celtics holding a 2.5-game lead on the Heat entering the Heat’s Saturday seeding game opener against Denver (1 p.m., ESPN and Fox Sports Sun).
With regard to a potential Heat-76ers series, Stan Van Gundy said:
“I would favor them [the 76ers] in a series but Miami plays so fearlessly. If they can shoot the ball well, I don’t know what could happen.
“I love watching Miami. They play with incredible energy. They play with great confidence, which is something that Erik has always been able to instill in his players, even young guys. They play fearlessly. They’re a threat against anybody. Them and Philadelphia would be a hell of a series. Obviously, they beat Philly three out of four during the year. I would put [Philadelphia] at the level of Toronto and Boston, in the same group as threats to Milwaukee. Their lineup is just so good.”
Miller, who will call two TNT Heat games next week (against Boston and Milwaukee) with Kevin Harlan, said a potential Heat-76ers series would be a tossup.
“The only surprise would be if the Lakers or Milwaukee lost in the first round,” Miller said.
“Everything else is up in the air. Miami and Philly play in the first round, you could make a case for both teams. Miami with Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler and the shooters they have with Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson and Kendrick Nunn.
“And then Philadelphia arguably may have the best starting lineup; they are just loaded. There is no home-court advantage. Philadelphia was terrible on the road this year, but there is no road now. Are we going to get the best version of Philly now?”
This story was originally published July 29, 2020 at 4:07 PM.
