The eyebrow-raising data on new Miami Dolphin Matt Breida and his league-leading feat
A six-pack of Matt Breida/Miami Dolphins notes on a Thursday:
▪ So what are the Dolphins getting in their newest running back?
For starters, an explosive player whose 5.0 career per-carry average would rank highest among all active backs if he had enough rushes to qualify. (Derrick Henry at 4.8 and Adrian Peterson at 4.7 are the qualifying leaders).
And consider this: Over the past three years, only Nick Chubb (5.08) and Aaron Jones (5.02) have a higher per carry average than Breida.
More good news: Breida had 18 runs of 10 yards or more last season, which is excellent considering he had only 123 carries. That means 14.6 percent of his carries last season went for 10 yards or more. That’s exceptional.
But here’s the flip slide: Of his 123 runs last season, 45.5 percent went for two yards or less, and 24.3 percent were for no gain or lost yardage.
The breakdown: He had 13 carries for two yards, 13 for one yard, 13 for no gain, nine that lost one yard, five that lost two yards, one that lost three yards and two that lost four yards.
So it’s often feast or famine with Breida, who has had enough long runs to maintain his sterling 5.0 per carry average and 5.1 mark last season. And even though he’s prone to runs of negligible gains or negative yards, give him credit for this:
On third or fourth down, with the offense needing one or two yards, he has converted six of seven career opportunities.
The 49ers have had a very good offensive line during his career, which assuredly helped him.
▪ His speed and big-play ability are his best traits. On an 83-yard touchdown run against Cleveland last season, ESPN clocked Breida’s top speed at 22.3 miles per hour. That was the fastest run by an NFL running back over the last three seasons, according to NFL’s NextGen Stats.
Breida (who’s on a one-year, $3.3 million deal) and Jordan Howard (beginning at two-year, $10 million contract) assuredly will be Miami’s top two backs in whatever order, and Howard’s physical running style complements Breida’s explosiveness.
And 49ers people also give Breida credit for his toughness in trying to play through an ankle injury last season.
▪ Among backs with at least 100 carries, Pro Football Focus rated Breida 36th in elusiveness last season, which factors in missed tackles forced and yards after contact.
Jordan, incidentally, was 27th. Former Dolphins running back Kenyan Drake was 34th.
As far as average yards after contact, Breida was middle of the pack - 70th of 146 among all NFL backs last season. His 2.67 yards after contact average was decent; by contrast, Kalen Ballage was 129th at 1.51. And Breida forced 19 missed tackles on his 123 runs.
▪ Breida — who went undrafted in 2017 despite running a 4.38 40-yard-dash at his Pro Day — started 18 games in three seasons with the 49ers, including five of the 49ers’ first seven games last season after Tevin Coleman missed time early with an ankle sprain.
But then Raheem Mostert began to emerge, Breida sat out three games with an ankle injury and didn’t start again after returning.
In the 49ers’ Week 15 loss to the Atlanta Falcons, Breida fumbled twice and lost one of them for a crucial second-half turnover. That was uncharacteristic; he has just four fumbles in 381 career carries.
In the 49ers’ following game, Breida did not see action on offense and played nine snaps on special teams. 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan was asked if Breida’s fumbles factored into the team’s decision to keep him on the sideline against the Rams. “No,” Shanahan said.
And it shouldn’t concern the Dolphins, because his ball security has been good throughout his career.
Breida was largely a non-factor in postseason, carrying eight times for 17 yards against Minnesota, 1 for 2 yards against Green Bay in the NFC Championship and not carrying the ball at all in the Super Bowl.
▪ Breida didn’t come out of Georgia Southern as a great pass-receiving back, but Shanahan said “he’s worked on it a lot. Breida’s worked on everything.”
Last season, he caught 19 of the 22 passes thrown to him, with one touchdown and two drops. He’s had 21, 27 and 19 receptions his three seasons, but his yards per reception has varied widely — dropping from 9.7 in 2018 to 6.3 last season.
▪ One personal note, more important than anything above: Just after his birth, Breida was put up for adoption by his mother, who was single, already had two children and felt she could not take care of another.
This 2015 piece by savannahnow.doc is excellent and tells the story of his adoptive parents - both of whom have disabilities - and Breida’s life growing up.
CAP SAVING
By cutting defensive end Taco Charlton on Thursday, the Dolphins won’t need to pay his $1.8 million non-guaranteed salary, and the move saves $1.4 million against the cap.
His release leaves Miami two players below its permitted 91-man limit.
Here’s our piece on everything Nick Saban told four South Florida writers (including myself and colleague Adam Beasley) about new Dolphins Tua Tagovailoa and Raekwon Davis.
This story was originally published April 30, 2020 at 4:45 PM.
