How the Miami Dolphins compare to the rest of the AFC East at every position on offense
For the first time in two decades, there is genuine uncertainty about who’s the favorite in the AFC East, in the wake of Tom Brady’s departure to Tampa Bay.
A case could be made for the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills, and who knows what kind of damage the Miami Dolphins could cause if Tua Tagovailoa gets in the lineup by Week 4 and dazzles like he did at Alabama? And could the New York Jets be a factor, in the wake of quarterback Sam Darnold’s late-season improvement last year?
In the first of a two-part series, we compare the offensive units of the Dolphins, Patriots, Bills and Jets, listing the top players at every position:
QUARTERBACKS
▪ Dolphins: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tagovailoa, Josh Rosen
▪ Patriots: Jarrett Stidham, Brian Hoyer, J’Mar Smith and Brian Lewerke
▪ Bills: Josh Allen, Matt Barkley, Jake Fromm
▪ Jets: Sam Darnold, Joe Flacco, David Fales, FIU rookie James Morgan
▪ The view here: Until we see what Tagovailoa and Stidham can do, the edge goes (barely) to Buffalo and Allen, by a hair over Darnold. That, obviously, could change quickly if Tua or Stidham become something special.
Allen emerged in his second season, with 20 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions, an 85.3 passer rating (that still needs improvement) and 510 yards rushing (4.7 per carry) and nine touchdowns on the ground. But he fumbled 14 times and lost four of them.
Darnold played well late in the season, finishing with 19 touchdowns, 13 interceptions and a middling 84.3 rating.
Fitzpatrick is the heavy front-runner to begin the season as the Dolphins’ starter, but nobody should be surprised if Tagovailoa is playing by October.
Coach Bill Belichick will give Stidham — the 2019 fourth-round pick — every chance to be New England’s quarterback. If he squanders the chance, the Pats likely will go quarterback shopping next spring.
RUNNING BACKS
▪ Dolphins: Jordan Howard, Matt Breida
▪ Patriots: Sony Michel, James White, Rex Burkhead
▪ Bills: Devin Singletary, T.J. Yeldon, Zack Moss
▪ Jets: Le’Veon Bell, Frank Gore, La’Mical Perine
▪ The view here: The personnel among the four teams is very comparable, and I would give the slightest of edges to the Patriots, but that’s debatable because Michel and White both averaged less than 4.0 per carry last season.
Michel is coming off a somewhat disappointing second season (912 yards rushing on 3.7 per carry). White averaged 3.9 per carry but might be the best receiving back in the division (72 catches, 645 yards, nine touchdowns last season). At least Burkhead averaged 4.6 per carry (65 carries for 302 yards).
Bell remains the neon name among AFC East backs but was dreadful as a rusher last season (789 yards rushing) on 3.2 per carry, while catching 66 passes for 461 yards. If Bell again struggles, Adam Gase has another option in Gore, who had 599 yards rushing on 3.6 per carry for Buffalo last season.
Singletary, like Michel a former Plantation American Heritage standout, had a breakout first season (775 yards rushing, 5.1 per carry), but the Bills must hope Moss — the former Hallandale High and Utah star — becomes a dynamic No. 2 or eventual starter.
My suspicion is that the Dolphins’ Howard/Breida tandem will be better than perceived. They’re nothing close to star running backs, but to call them merely serviceable is a disservice, considering Howard has a career 4.3 rushing average (4.4 last year for the Eagles) and Breida has a career 5.0 average (including 5.1 last season behind a very good 49ers offensive line).
And consider this: Breida’s per-carry average is third best in the NFL since 2017. And Howard has the third-most rushing yards in the NFL since 2016.
WIDE RECEIVERS
▪ Dolphins: DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, Albert Wilson, Jakeem Grant, Allen Hurns, Isaiah Ford
▪ Patriots: Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry, Mohamed Sanu, Damiere Byrd, Marqise Lee
▪ Bills: Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Andre Roberts, Duke Williams
▪ Jets: Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, Denzel Mims, Josh Bellamy, Josh Doctson, Braxton Berrios
▪ The view here: I give a distinct edge to the Bills after acquiring Diggs from Minnesota, where he had 63 catches for 1,130 yards (17.9 per reception) and six touchdowns last season. The Bills now have an excellent tandem in Diggs and Brown, who had 72 catches for 1,060 yards (14.7 average) and six touchdowns last season, and a solid No. 3 in Beasley (67-778-six TDs last season).
The Dolphins could be second in this group, if Parker matches his breakout season (72 catches, 1,202 yards), if Williams returns to form quickly after an ACL injury and builds on a very good rookie season, if Wilson and Grant stay healthy and return to 2018 forms. That’s a lot of ifs.
The Jets helped themselves with Mims, the dynamic Baylor receiver who was on Miami’s radar before the draft, and veteran Perriman (36-645-6 TDs for Tampa last season). But Crowder (78-883) is a bottom-third-of-the-league No. 1 receiver.
It’s surprising how the Patriots have allowed themselves to become so diminished at receiver the past two years. Edelman is still highly productive (100-1,117, 6 TDs last season), but will be 34 before the season. Sanu struggled after being acquired from Atlanta at the trade deadline (26 catches for 207 yards in eight games), and Harry — the 2019 first-rounder — missed half his rookie season due to an injury and had 12 catches for 105 yards in eight games.
TIGHT ENDS
▪ Dolphins: Mike Gesicki, Durham Smythe, Michael Roberts
▪ Patriots: Devin Asiasi, Dalton Keene, Matt LaCosse, Ryan Izzo
▪ Bills: Dawson Knox, Tyler Kroft, Jason Croom
▪ Jets: Chris Herndon, Ryan Griffin
▪ The view here: No clear-cut leader, but a case could be made for the Dolphins — seriously — because of Gesicki’s dramatic improvement last season (51-570-5 TDs).
The Jets’ Herndon has a chance to emerge as the division’s top tight end if he can repeat his 2018 season (when he had 505 yards in receptions and nine catches of 20 yards or longer). He played in only one game last season because of NFL suspension and injury.
Knox (28-388) has become a serviceable starter for the Bills, with room for growth. And Croom played well as a rookie in 2018 before missing last season with an injury.
As for the Patriots, LaCrosse and Izzo combined for 245 receiving yards last season, and the two rookies — UCLA’s Asiasi and Virginia Tech’s Keene — will be given every chance to claim the top two spots on the depth chart.
OFFENSIVE LINE
▪ Dolphins: Ted Karras at center; some combination of Austin Jackson, Julien Davenport, Robert Hunt and Jesse Davis at the two tackle spots; Ereck Flowers and either Hunt or Davis or perhaps Michael Deiter at guard. Davis assuredly will start somewhere on the line.
▪ Patriots: David Andrews at center; Joe Thuney and Shaq Mason at guard; Isaiah Wynn and Marcus Cannon at tackle.
▪ Bills: Dion Dawkins and Cody Ford at tackle; Mitch Morse at center; and Quinton Spain and either Daryl Williams or Jon Feliciano at guard.
▪ Jets: Mekhi Becton and George Fant at tackle; Connor McGovern at center; and Alex Lewis and Greg Van Wroten at guard.
▪ The view here: The Patriots are clearly at the head of the pack here, with a second-team All Pro in Thuney and five solid starters.
The Jets revamped their line, adding one of the draft’s top tackle prospects in Becton, a versatile multiposition player (Fant) who warranted the full-time starting job he never had in Seattle, a capable guard in Van Wroten and one of the top centers in free agency in McGovern.
The Dolphins should be improved after adding Flowers, Karras and then Jackson and Hunt in the first 39 picks of the draft, though there likely will be a learning curve for the two early round rookies.
Dawkins (a solid left tackle) and Spain (who earned a contract extension) anchor a Bills line that is competent but needs a big jump from Ford to become more than that.
We will compare the AFC East teams’ defenses later this week.
Here’s my Wednesday Marlins 6-pack.
This story was originally published June 24, 2020 at 5:42 PM.
