What Miami Marlins players’ early season history tells us as short season looms
A six-pack of Miami Marlins notes on a Wednesday:
▪ A season as short as this one (60 games) could be unforgiving to hitters who traditionally get off to slow starts.
And judging from the track record of several Marlins, that’s something worth monitoring.
Among Marlins position players who will very likely be on the team or have a decent chance to make it, 11 players have more than 450 career at-bats.
Of those 11, only three have a higher batting average in the first five weeks of the season than overall.
The only full-time starter among those 11 players who has historically gotten off to a fast start is outfielder Corey Dickerson, who’s a career .298 hitter in March/April and a .298 hitter in May, too. That bodes well for Dickerson, a career .286 hitter who historically has cooled off in August (.251 career average in that month).
The only other veteran Marlins position players (minimum 450 career at-bats) with better averages in March/April than overall are Matt Joyce (.247 compared with .243 overall) and Matt Kemp (.285 overall career average; .309 career average in March and April).
Manager Don Mattingly has spoken of playing Joyce several times a week in the outfield, and he also could get work as a designated hitter, with all National League games now having a DH this year. Kemp is trying to make the team and has a good chance to stick at least initially, with the rosters expanding to 30 players in the first two weeks of the season.
Quick note: When we say March/April, we mean only regular-season games, not March spring training games.
▪ As for the historic slow starters, second baseman/center fielder Jonathan Villar has hit .240 in 138 career games in March and April, compared with .261 overall in his career. But he did improve to .262 in March/April last season.
Third baseman Brian Anderson, a career .267 hitter, hit .243 last March and April and .219 in May.
First baseman Jesus Aguilar, a career .256 hitter, has hit .236 in 71 career games in March and April.
First baseman/outfielder Garrett Cooper, a career .280 hitter, has hit .233 in March and April.
Catcher Jorge Alfaro and shortstop Miguel Rojas have hit better overall than in March/April, but the disparity isn’t huge.
Perhaps early season history won’t be indicative of short-season performance. Perhaps players who perform better in August than April do so because of the weather or other factors, not because they necessarily need the first 50 plus games of the season to get in a groove.
But the Marlins players’ early season history is worth keeping in mind as this unprecedentedly short season unfolds.
▪ Among pitchers, aside from Jose Urena, the rotation (Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith, Pablo Lopez and either Jordan Yamamoto or Elieser Hernandez) is too young and the sample size too small to make any conclusions on who among those are fast or slow starters.
Urena, for what it’s worth, has pitched worse early in the season than any other time of the season. In March/April, he has a career 1-8 record, a 5.11 ERA and allowed batters to hit .299 off him. He improves somewhat in May (6-9, 4.14).
Urena’s career numbers: 32-43, 4.57 ERA.
Among the team’s most veteran relievers, the good news is that projected closer Brandon Kintzler and likely top setup man Yimi Garcia historically have been very good early in the season.
In March and April, Kintzler has a 3.10 ERA and batters have hit .211 off him. Garcia has a 3.12 ERA in those two months, with batters hitting just .174 off him.
▪ Among the Marlins’ recent 30 minor-league cuts: former Texas prep second base standout Justin Twine (.245 at Double A and Single A last year and a decent prospect at one point) and lefty McKenzie Mills, who was acquired in the July 2018 Justin Bour trade with Philadelphia but went just 1-8, 5.36 at Jacksonville last season. There were no household names among the cuts.
The Marlins opted not to release right-hander Tyler Kolek, the second overall pick in the 2014 draft who has been a bust and missed most of the past three seasons after Tommy John surgery.
He’s 5-16, with a 5.66 ERA in 64 minor-league games, never rising above low-level A ball. Last season, he pitched only 13 ⅔ innings in low-level A ball and had a 9.22 ERA.
Please scroll down my Twitter feed a bit for a list of all 30 cuts.
▪ More reaction on Oklahoma prep left-hander Dax Fulton, who the Marlins selected 40th overall in the recent amateur draft:
Former Colorado Rockies general manager Dan O’Dowd, now an MLB Network analyst: “This kid is absolutely filthy. The shame of it was he really started to come right before the injury [that required Tommy John surgery]. I believe he will pick right back up. He throws from a slot that makes hitters feel very uncomfortable. Great spin on his breaking ball, power fastball with life. Feel for a changeup. There is so much to like about this young man. If he wasn’t hurt, I believe this is a Day One draft [pick].”
MLB.com’s Jim Callis said Fulton is “the best high school lefty in this draft. One of best curves in the high school class. Throws 90-93 already. We see a lot of Tommy John guys get through the rehab and they are stronger, better, throw harder.”
▪ Quick stuff: Hearing lots of positive stuff on Ball State right-hander Kyle Nicolas, Miami’s third pick in the recent draft. Callis said his fastball “can sit in the mid-90s innings at a time. He did a good job this year of learning to dial it back a little bit and throw a lot more strikes. Slider he was able to throw for more strikes. Curveball more of a third option. Another power arm to add to Marlins’ collection.”
O’Dowd said the Ball State “program has done a really good job with this kid. They really cleaned up his delivery and simplified it.”...
Marlins announcers are expected to call home games from Marlins Park. MLB health protocols are allowing radio announcers to travel, but the Marlins’ radio announcers are expected to call road games from South Florida, possibly from Marlins Park...
Betonline.com has Miami’s over/under win total at 24 1/2; only Detroit and Baltimore are lower... The expanded roster (30 players the first two weeks of the season) could help outfielder Magneuris Sierra, who’s out of minor-league options.
This story was originally published June 24, 2020 at 3:14 PM.
