What should the Miami Dolphins do now? Glad you asked. And what Joe Burrow is looking for
Our resident Fake GM Mando (my colleague Armando Salguero) doesn’t need any help crafting a plan for the Miami Dolphins, in the highly, highly unlikely event the real general manager — Chris Grier — is of the mind-set to listen to either of us.
But with that caveat, here’s my unsolicited two cents on what the Dolphins should do now:
Don’t just call the Bengals offering a king’s ransom to move up for quarterback Joe Burrow. Get Burrow in on the plan.
As I raised in this piece, the Dolphins’ ability to snag Burrow would seem infinitely better if Miami can first sell Burrow on the merits of playing here, and then convince Burrow to tell the Bengals that he prefers they trade the first overall pick.
Of course, all this must be done discreetly. So during your legal video conference sessions with Burrow, have Dan Marino and Brian Flores try to sell Burrow on coming to Miami.
Do whatever it takes, within the rules. Tell Burrow you can learn from Marino, and he will throw in some Isotoner gloves! Pay no state income tax! Enjoy succulent prime rib at Prime 112! Work for an owner who some day could make you CEO of a real estate development project in Manhattan, or buy you a beachside community! Send Burrow tape of the Dolphins-Patriots season finale and ask him if the Bengals could have gone into New England and won.
Do whatever it takes during your session with Burrow not to interview him, but to sell him on the merits of playing for the Dolphins and gauge if Burrow is willing to politely ask the Bengals to trade him. It’s a difficult sell job, because of Burrow’s Ohio roots, but Burrow has publicly praised how the Dolphins have gone about their business during the past year.
Then, if he’s on board, go to the Bengals with your offer.
And if Burrow is not on board, go to the Bengals anyway, and offer all three of your first-round picks and even a second-rounder next year or a third-rounder this year if you need.
Too much to give up for a quarterback, you say? Baloney, I say.
Even if the Dolphins can land a decent left tackle at 18 and running back or defensive lineman or safety at 26, ask yourself this: Won’t a left tackle and a running back be a small price to pay if Burrow is anywhere near as good an NFL quarterback as he was at LSU last year — and if Tua Tagovailoa again gets injured (he has been injured at least seven times in the past 24 months) and if Justin Herbert’s uneven accuracy haunts him in the pros?
Answer: Yes, with a hundred exclamation points.
Here’s a story: According to a Dolphins source, Grier knew last year how badly Houston coach Bill O’Brien wanted Laremy Tunsil, so he kept asking for more and more, knowing O’Brien might — and in fact, eventually did — succumb to a ridiculous price: two first-rounders and a second-rounder (with veterans including Kenny Stills and Julien Davenport also involved, and Miami sending future fourth- and sixth-rounders to Houston).
The talk in the Dolphins office was that everyone in the NFL would be talking about Grier for how much draft capital he would be able to snag for an offensive tackle.
As much as the Bengals appear to want Burrow, Grier could take the opposite approach with Burrow and the Bengals. Of course, there’s a point at which this becomes ridiculous (like trading your entire collection of 14 picks, which no reasonable person would advocate.)
But three first-rounders isn’t an excessive price if Burrow is the durable, elite prospect most evaluators believe he is.
And when Burrow appeared on Shaquille O’Neal’s podcast, I found this comment interesting from him: “I just want to get drafted to a good team, good organization that is going to maximize my talents,” Burrow said. “I’ve won everywhere that I’ve been. I’ve never had a losing season in sports from the moment I was 5 years old. I’m not a loser. I just want to go somewhere where I can win. Teams are picking at the top for a reason. And I feel like, like I said before, I’ve won everywhere that I’ve ever been. I feel like if anybody can do it, I can do it.”
It’s the Dolphins’ job to make the case to Burrow that he has a better chance of team success here than in Cincinnati.
Step 2: If the Bengals balk on Burrow, then do this: Take Tua if he falls to five, because the view here is the talent outweighs the health risk. But because of the lack of durability, I would not move up and relinquish assets for him. So call the Detroit Lions’ bluff at No. 3.
Then I would use the 18th pick on one of two potentially available left tackles (Georgia’s Andrew Thomas or Houston’s Josh Jones) and use the 26th pick on Ohio State’s exceptional running back J.K. Dobbins or Georgia’s D’Andre Swift, though I could understand the case for a defensive front seven player at 26 and taking the chance that Dobbins or Swift would be available at 39 (and grabbing LSU’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire or FSU’s Cam Akers if both are gone).
And then use your two second-rounders and your third-rounder on some combination of one or two of the best offensive linemen (Georgia’s Isaiah Wilson holds appeal because he can play tackle or guard), a behemoth defensive tackle who can play some nose (perhaps Utah’s Leki Fotu is the run-stuffing nose that’s needed) and a top-five safety in this draft class (Alabama’s Xavier McKinney, Cal’s Ashtyn Davis, LSU’s Grant Delpit or Minnesota’s Antoine Winfield, depending on who’s still available).
I wouldn’t use a first-rounder on a safety because you can get by with Eric Rowe and Bobby McCain, but I would take one in the second or third rounds.
Step 3: If you can convince Burrow to get on board — and convince the Bengals to trade the pick, which seems doubtful — use your second-rounders on a tackle (perhaps Georgia’s Wilson or TCU’s Lucas Niang) and the best available running back (among Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor, LSU’s Edwards-Halaire and FSU’s Akers), and call the Redskins and Trent Williams’ agent Vincent Taylor and see if you can land him for a third-rounder in 2021 or a fourth-rounder in 2022 and if he would take a reasonable two-year deal, allowing the Dolphins time to develop your second-round offensive tackle in the meantime.
If not, try to survive a year at left tackle with 38-year-old free agent Jason Peters, a nine-time Pro Bowler, while developing a second- or third-round pick at the position.
If you need to create cap space, ask Albert Wilson to restructure or release him as a last resort, though that’s not the preference because he did play well late in the season and has an explosiveness — if healthy — that benefits this offense.
And what if you cannot get Burrow and get jumped in the draft for Tagovailoa? That’s why Grier gets the big bucks, because any scenario there would involve lots of hoping — that Herbert can become less prone to streakiness in his play, especially with intermediate throws (his deep ball accuracy is very good), that Jordan Love’s 17 interceptions last season were an anomaly or that any other quarterback in this draft will be an above average starter, which seems dubious.
And that’s a somewhat uncomfortable situation to be in.
Here’s my Thursday night piece on some of the players the Dolphins have quietly been reaching out to.
Here’s my Dolphins-flavored piece on the top defensive tackles in the draft.
Here’s my Dolphins-flavored piece on the top offensive tackles in the draft.
Here’s my Dolphins-flavored piece on the top safeties available in the draft.
Here’s my Dolphins flavored piece on some of the second-tier quarterbacks in the draft.
Here’s my Friday piece - with Adam Beasley - with the Friday Tua Tagovailoa news, including more on his latest workout and some remaining skepticism.
This story was originally published April 10, 2020 at 3:16 PM.
