As Miami Dolphins evaluate Herbert, some issues they must reconcile. And more NFL reaction.
It’s the season of subterfuge, when everything said about the NFL Draft should be approached with healthy skepticism.
With that as a caveat, I can add this: One NFL person with whom the Dolphins have traditionally been very honest (he’s not someone in competition with Miami) said his impression from the team is that they still prefer Tua Tagovailoa if his medicals check out over all other quarterbacks not named Joe Burrow.
But if the Dolphins don’t want to give up what’s needed to move up to assure getting Tagovailoa (and it cannot be assumed that they will), what should they do if Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert is available at five?
The Dolphins have studied Herbert as much as any team and appreciate the skill set.
But for all his physical gifts, there remain issues. Some things to consider:
▪ Fox’s Brock Huard, the former NFL quarterback who has announced and evaluated more of Herbert’s games than any other network analyst, told me that “if my livelihood was on the line, I would [slot him] as a late first-round guy. There are a lot of players I would put ahead of him. He’s in the 20s for me and third at quarterback behind” Burrow and Tagovailoa.
“His accuracy would be my biggest concern,” Huard said of Herbert. “Like Marcus Mariota or Jake Locker or some of those that preceded him in the Pacific Northwest, I don’t look at him and say that is a pure innate accurate passer. I have no question in that way with Burrow or Tua. That to me is still the highest priority [in quarterback evaluation].
“Sometimes he would be on the move and make a throw and you would say, ‘That’s it!’ and other times on the move you would say, ‘Why did he two-hop that?’ One time he would throw a frozen rope on a 15-yard in-cut and the next time, it’s a foot or two feet behind the receiver.”
On the positive side, “he is a much better athlete than maybe people expect,” Huard said. “He’s mature, steady and… changed a narrative that he couldn’t win when it matters. He’s poised and a smart dude… He can throw 70 yards and with plenty of velocity.”
So would it be smarter for the Dolphins to give up assets to trade up for Tagovailoa or stay at No. 5 and take Herbert?
“If I’m comfortable with Tua’s health — and I have to study that with intensity unlike anything before — I would move up and take Tua” because of superior “accuracy, a quick release and anticipation,” Huard said. “He’s got a charisma and a flair and artistry in today’s game that you need.”
▪ During the past two seasons, no NFL quarterback has performed worse in the face of a pass rush than Josh Rosen, according to Pro Football Focus. And that’s also a problem with Herbert, according to the website. And that should very much worry the Dolphins.
Per PFF, among 129 qualifying FBS quarterbacks last season, Herbert ranked 124th in negatively graded play rate under pressure.
“You can see his panic in a collapsing pocket, an area where a first-round quarterback really shouldn’t be losing his poise,” PFF’s Anthony Treash says. “He’ll try and create outside of the structure but will toss up some desperation heaves.”
On the flip side, from a clean pocket, Herbert has the highest accurate pass rate in the 2020 draft class among throws of at least 20 yards.
Herbert fans see Herbert at his best and believe that can be harnessed and the poor throws eliminated. But that’s a risky proposition as a projection.
▪ Against the six highest-rated defenses he faced last season, PFF said he made just seven big-time (impressive) throws and 10 turnover-worthy plays.
▪ More troubling metrics on his uneven accuracy: Last season, he ranked 64th in FBS in accurate-pass rate on throws that were made in 2.5 seconds or less and traveled less than 10 yards. That’s not good enough for what should be some of the simplest throws.
On passes that traveled 19 yards or fewer with a clean pocket, Herbert threw the fourth-most incompletions “that were faulted to him — whether it was an overthrow, underthrow, ball in front or behind, etc,” Treash notes.
That’s second-worst among the top seven QBs in this class and symptomatic of his inconsistency.
▪ In all, PFF said 15.3 percent of Herbert’s pass attempts resulted in an incompletion that was his fault — below Tagovailoa’s 12.0 and Burrow’s 6.3. Among top QB prospects in this draft, only Jordan Love (17.3) was worse.
“Perhaps even more alarming is that Herbert had the most incompletions faulted to him when throwing to a receiver with open separation and on his first read,” PFF said. “He’s been known to lock in on his first read far too quickly and far too long.”
▪ A substantial chunk of Herbert’s 3,456 passing yards came from screen passes — a far greater percentage than Burrow and Tagovailoa. And he had the second-most yards (806) and the most touchdowns (8) from passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage. That shouldn’t be held against him, but it’s important to be aware of when you look at his 2019 stats.
▪ And there’s the personality issue, the importance of which varies depending on the team.
ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay is the sideline reporter on the network’s Steve Levy/Brian Griese announcing team and remembers visiting with Oregon players before games.
“He’s an introvert; the guard is the one sitting close to us talking to us and [Herbert] is in the back corner,” McShay said. “He’s working on it [becoming less of an introvert], but he’s not your typical quarterback. There are some teams that are OK with it and some teams that say that’s not what we want in our quarterback. [Regardless], he’s winning the predraft process.”
As ESPN’s Trey Wingo noted, Herbert has read the book “Leadership for Introverts.”
McShay, incidentally, has been led to believe that Miami doesn’t want Herbert.
“They want Joe Burrow. I can’t say that enough,” McShay said. “I know they want Joe Burrow…. It’s not about Justin Herbert…. They want other teams to think we’ll sit at five and take Justin Herbert. They don’t want Justin Herbert. They want Joe Burrow and if they can’t get Burrow, they want the medical to be great on Tua and then go get Tua.”
But it seems unlikely that the Bengals would trade the top pick to Miami.
Incidentally, NFL Net’s Daniel Jeremiah has Herbert falling all the way to 23rd to New England in his post-Combine mock draft, though he adds that he believes he will be selected higher than that.
▪ Now, here’s the good news on Herbert beyond the impressive physical attributes: a very good arm and good mobility... the production last season (32 touchdowns and just six picks) and engineering a game-winning drive in the Rose Bowl…
PFF notes “his ability to work through his progressions when free from pressure was among the best in the country.” ...His completion percentage jumped from 59.4 to 66.8 last season, despite having 32 catchable balls dropped last season.
▪ ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. said some of the criticism of Herbert has “been over the top,” noting the “way he performed since the season ended” — in the Senior Bowl and NFL Combine will help him after a “good but necessarily great year. [And] maybe the pro game will suit him better.”
▪ ESPN’s Louis Riddick said at the Senior Bowl, “when he got around a pro-style attack that was much more varied, he looked like, ‘Whoa, where has this been?’ Maybe Oregon did him an injustice” with its offensive system.
▪ Former UM quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Gino Torretta, who worked the Oregon-Washington game on radio last season, made a good point — via text message — about the fact Herbert hasn’t played under center.
“Great size and athleticism and arm,” Torretta said. “The question for most if not all currently is making the jump to being under center and not being in shotgun 100 percent of the time.
“Also, the higher the pick, the worse the team/offense is around you. I think he has all of the physical tools to develop. I think there are also questions regarding him not being vocal/forceful in a leadership role. Quiet, I guess.”
Incidentally, as NBC’s Peter King noted Monday, Herbert’s personal coach is former Dolphins quarterback John Beck.
Bottom line: To say Herbert is likely to be a bust would be taking it too far. He has enough coveted physical attributes and a strong enough resume to give him a chance to become a good NFL starter.
But there remain real and serious questions. And that why the Pacific 12 conference’s most prominent TV analyst said he should be ranked in the 20s in this draft and why he remains polarizing.
Here’s my Monday 6-pack of Canes nuggets from the first day of spring practice.
Here’s my Monday piece on exactly how the Marlins believe the next few years will unfold for them and what baseball people are saying.
This story was originally published March 2, 2020 at 6:50 PM.
