Miami Dolphins like Utah State QB Jordan Love, but here are the issues they must reconcile
So how do you reconcile an NFL prospect with immense physical skills, impressive zip on the ball and excellent work in 2018 but thoroughly unimpressive stats in 2019, including an FBS-leading 17 interceptions last season?
An NFL official who has spoken to the Dolphins say there’s support internally for Utah State’s Jordan Love as a quarterback option in the NFL Draft, but likely not at No. 5 overall barring a shift in assessment (and everything in the draft is fluid should Love wow Miami during a predraft workout).
In fact, there are differing views inside the Dolphins about how high he should go, with some viewing him as a mid-to-late first-rounder and others as a second-rounder, according to a person in touch with the team.
It seems doubtful he would be available at 18.
“People are talking about [Love] incessantally,” ESPN’s Louis Riddick said. “He’s going to go much sooner than you expect.”
But Riddick also cautioned, on Twitter: “If you looked at Jordan Love’s INT’s as a cut-up real/video edit, you would see: poor decision making, poor accuracy, poor play calling, poor route finish by WR’s. ALL were a factor. Question is, if you draft him, do you have the ability to eliminate/reduce severity of those issues?”
A few things to keep in mind on Love:
▪ Pro Football Focus, which analyzes every play, believes Love is being overvalued.
“Still more unfilled potential than starting NFL quarterback,” PFF said, noting he’s “top five in big time throws and turnover worthy throws.”
A lot is made of the fact that Love had to adjust to a new coordinator and an almost entirely new offensive cast last season, a year in which he threw 20 touchdowns, 17 picks and completed 61.9 percent of his passes.
But PFF’s Anthony Treash made some great points, including noting the fact he didn’t play better “against a weaker schedule is alarming. There were only two games when Love faced a Power 5 school in 2019, and he failed to impress in either.”
Against Wake Forest in Week 1, Love’s PFF grade was at 54.8 (he went 33 for 48 for 416 yards, three TDs and three picks). Against LSU in Week 6, it was just 44.0 (he went 15 for 30 for 130 yards, no touchdowns and three picks). All in all, Love produced a PFF grade of just 67.5 against teams with a winning record in 2019.
“He has a lot of potential and, as a result, is mostly noted for the positives of his play with little to no mention of all the negatives.”
▪ One issue last season, Treash noted, is “there were an insane number of throws made by Love to his first read that were just head-scratchers.”
NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein said: “His delayed reaction from ‘see it’ to ‘throw it’ when making reads is troubling.”
He was particularly poor on passes such as crosses and slants in which he’s leading the receiver across the field, throwing seven picks on those attempts.
Love has produced a turnover-worthy play on 4.7 percent of his plays, which ranked 109th of 136 FBS quarterbacks, per PFF.
▪ On the positive side, Love threw 32 touchdowns and six interceptions in 2018, with a 64 completion percentage before his numbers dropped dramatically last season.
ESPN’s Todd McShay, who has bet colleague Mel Kiper Jr.that Love will be drafted ahead of Justin Herbert, said the fact he played with a practically new team last season cannot simply be brushed aside.
Utah State “lost nine starters [from 2018], the head coach, offensive coordinator,” McShay said. “He was on an island. I can excuse some of [the 17 interceptions because of that]. From a tool standpoint, his ability to extend plays, is what you’re looking for in today’s NFL quarterback.”
And, McShay said, “If you study two years ago, you see what he can do. He gets the ball out, has good progression reads. If you compare him to Justin Herbert, Love is a better player.”
Former Giants executive Marc Ross, now an analyst for NFL Network, went as far as to say Love’s “potential far exceeds Tua’ Tagovailoa’s.”
▪ There are the two “44 percent” issues with Love that give pause for thought:
No. 1: Love grades out very well when he has targeted a receiver with a step or more of separation. The problem is a high uncatchable rate on passes into tight windows —- a 44 percent rate that’s higher than the other top QB prospects in the past three drafts, per PFF.
No. 2: An alarmingly high 44 percent of Love’s throws when facing heavy pressure have been uncatchable, which PFF says is the worst (highest) amount of any QB taken in the first three rounds during the past four years. Too often, he forces throws in those situations, and he’s fortunate that more than 17 weren’t intercepted.
At least Love shows self-awareness about that shortcoming.
“I was trying to do a little too much down there and force the ball downfield, thinking I could make throws into tight windows,” Love said last week at the NFL Combine. “Obviously just being in some situations where I could’ve just checked the ball, but I was trying to make that play.”
▪ NFL Net’s Daniel Jeremiah said Love’s “decision making was very concerning this [past] season. He forces too many balls into crowds and he doesn’t ever give up on a play — to a fault. His supporting cast isn’t very good, but he still fell into too many bad habits.
“He uses his athletic ability to escape and extend plays, but there are occasions when he fails to climb and reset his feet. Overall, Love is a raw prospect who will need some time to develop.”
▪ The Dolphins are aware of all this, which is why he’s not viewed as a top-five pick. But they also appreciate the physical gifts and like the potential.
Jeremiah said he has “ideal size [6-4], arm strength and athletic ability. He operates in the gun and he’s very fluid and smooth in his setup. He throws from a variety of platforms and arm angles. The ball jumps out of his hand. He is at his best on skinny post drive throws and over the top deep balls. “
▪ Whether he belongs in the top 10 is another story. Jeremiah has him 18th, McShay 26th. “There is risk with him, but the payoff could be huge,” Jeremiah said.
▪ The last word to Love: “You watch my film: I make an incredible play then next thing you know, I miss a swing route or checkdown or something like that. Definitely the most important thing to me is being more consistent.”
