The one key area where Miami Heat is now worst among Eastern Conference playoff teams
Of all the disconcerting numbers about the Heat’s defense, here’s the one that stands out to me, and one that could never before be said for a playoff-bound Heat team since Pat Riley’s arrival 25 years ago:
This Heat team, at its current pace, would be the worst defensively among the likely eight Eastern Conference playoff teams.
Miami’s defensive rating — which is now the most commonly used gauge to measure defensive efficiency — stands 14th, which is worse than the seven other projected Eastern playoff teams.
For those new to the “defensive rating” jargon, Miami is allowing 108.8 points per 100 possessions, which is 14th in the league and ahead of only Houston, Memphis and Dallas among all current playoff teams.
That 108.8 is identical to the points per 100 possessions permitted by the 2007-08 Heat team that finished 15-67.
In the past 12 seasons, only the 2014-15 Heat finished lower than 11th in defensive rating, with Miami 21st at 106.1 in that category that year.
And do you know the top three teams in the league in defensive rating?
Not coincidentally, it’s the three teams ahead of Miami in the Eastern Conference standings: Milwaukee at 101.7, Toronto at 105.1 and Boston at 105.7.
And Philadelphia, which is just one-half game behind the Heat for fourth in the East, is fourth in the league in defensive rating at 106.0 points relinquished per 100 possessions.
Most would agree this is a personnel issue, and not a coaching issue, because Erik Spoelstra’s teams historically have been among the league’s best defensively.
“Their defense has struggled; when they put out their best defensive players, their shooting goes down,” ESPN’s Brian Windhorst noted on The Jump on Friday. “When they put out their best shooters, their defense goes down. That a big challenge for Spoelstra coming down the stretch of the season.”
So who on the Heat is ranking particularly poorly defensively?
There are several ways to gauge this, including defensive rating (points the team allowed per 100 possessions when that player is on the court) and field goal percentage by the opposing player being guarded by that player (which admittedly doesn’t take into account helping on defense), plus steals, blocks and blow-bys (one category that is important but not readily available).
Here’s where the Heat’s rotation players measure up in the first two of those areas:
THE HEAT’S POWER ROTATION PLAYERS
▪ Bam Adebayo: NBA.com lists him as a center and power forward, though he has primarily played power forward this season. Among power forwards who have defended at least 400 shots, Adebayo is ninth-best in field goal percentage allowed, at 44.0 - better, from a defensive perspective, than the 47 percent those players shoot overall.
Coincidentally, he’s also ninth in that category if measured against centers (minimum 400 shots defended).
As perspective, Portland and ex-Heat center Hassan Whiteside is allowing players to shoot 45.9 against him.
Adebayo’s defensive rating is tied for 12th among centers, with Miami allowing 107 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the court, a number dragged down by a couple of his teammates in Miami’s starting five.
But his defensive rating during this ongoing 1-5 stretch is 116, better than only Kelly Olynyk among Heat rotation players, and his field goal percentage against is way up (47.8) during this six-game Heat swoon.
Adebayo has expressed concern with the Heat’s defense over the past two weeks.
▪ Meyers Leonard: He’s 10th in the NBA in defensive rating for centers, at 106, meaning the Heat has allowed three points less per 100 possessions with Leonard on the floor than it does on average overall.
On the flip side, players he defends are shooting 50.5 percent, better than only Nikola Jokic, Cody Zeller and Thomas Bryant among starting centers. Leonard will miss his seventh game in a row with an ankle injury on Saturday, when Miami plays host to Cleveland.
Despite that and despite the lack of rim protection (15 blocks in 49 games), Miami played better defensively when he was in the lineup, though the tough recent road schedule might skew those numbers.
▪ Kelly Olynyk: The player he’s guarding is shooting 49.2 percent, compared with the 45.8 those players shoot overall. That’s below average. Among centers who have defended at least 300 shots, 14 are worse (including Cleveland’s Andre Drummond).
And the Heat allows 109 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor, worst among Miami’s rotation bigs. Over the past six games (all on the road, with Miami 1-5 in those games), teams are scoring 121 per 100 possessions with Olynyk on the floor, worst by far among rotation players. And he’s second on the Heat in most fouls committed per game, at 2.37.
▪ Jae Crowder: A swing forward, he started at power forward for Miami on Thursday at Atlanta and figures to remain in that position at least until Leonard returns and potentially longer if Miami plays well with Crowder starting.
Players guarded by Crowder are shooting 46.1 this season (mostly with Memphis), compared with 45.8 percent overall, which places him about average among forwards.
But the metrics suggest his defense with the Heat has not been an issue, even with the Heat permitting 115, 101, 116 and 129 points in the four games since Crowder and Iguodala joined the rotation following the Memphis trade.
In his four games with the Heat, players guarded by Crowder are shooting 37.5 percent (9 for 24). And Miami is allowing 108 points per 100 possessions with Crowder on the floor in those four games, which is second best among Heat rotation players behind (surprise, surprise) Duncan Robinson.
THE HEAT’S WING PLAYERS
▪ Jimmy Butler: The player he’s guarding is shooting only 41.2 percent (compared to the 45.4 those players shoot overall), which is eighth best from a defensive standpoint among all small forwards or small forwards/shooting guards who have defended at least 300 shots.
But that field-goal percentage against Butler is 50 percent in the last four games.
In defensive rating, he’s only slightly above average (primarily because of defensive deficiencies with his non-Bam supporting cast) at 107 points allowed per 100 possessions. But Butler is obviously still a high-level defender.
▪ Derrick Jones Jr.: Among all NBA forwards, only Giannis Antetokounmpo allows players he’s guarding to shoot worse than Jones, who is limiting those players to 37.7 percent shooting.
But curiously, his defensive rating (110 points allowed per 100 possessions) is tied for Goran Dragic for worst among all Heat rotation players, except for Iguodala. Teammates obviously bear a good deal of the blame for that; Jones has been one of Miami’s best defenders.
▪ Duncan Robinson: Though his defense has been a vulnerability, two metrics suggest it’s better than the perception. He is allowing the player he’s guarding to shoot 45.2, compared with 44.5 overall, not great but not awful.
His 107 defensive rating is tied with Butler and Adebayo, largely a function of playing a lot with those two. One major issue is he tends to get in foul trouble; his 2.87 fouls per game leads the Heat and is 37th in the league. And allowing penetration obviously has been an issue.
▪ Iguodala: He has two steals and three blocks in his first four games this season, but players are shooting 46.7 percent against him (14 for 30) and his 113 defensive rating is worst on the team among rotation players.
▪ Kendrick Nunn: Players are shooting 47.9 against him this season (those players shoot 44.3 overall) and a bloated 59.6 percent (28 for 47) over this 1-5 stretch. Eight starting shooting guards are worse in that category. His 108 defensive rating is worst (barely) among Heat starters.
▪ Dragic: His 110 defensive rating is worst among rotation players who have been with the Heat all season. But on the flip side, and this is impressive: He’s fifth in the league among all guards in shooting percentage allowed against the player he’s guarding, at 40.5.
▪ Tyler Herro: Has repeatedly been attacked defensively before his ongoing absence with a foot injury, but his 44.6 shooting percentage allowed (compared with the 43.4 those players shoot overall) is actually in the top half of the league for guards. His 109 defensive rating is fourth-worst among Heat rotation players.
To reiterate, these stats don’t indicate how many times Miami’s wing players have been beaten off the dribble, which has been problematic and another important gauge of defensive efficiency.
Overall, the Heat is allowing teams to shoot 44.6 percent (tied with the Lakers for sixth-best) and 33.9 percent on threes, which is best in the league.
But Miami has given up far too many threes (105 of them) in this 1-5 stretch, and many of those threes have been particularly damaging.
Here’s my Friday piece with Dolphins draft chatter and lots more.
This story was originally published February 21, 2020 at 4:44 PM.
