The critical non-quarterback decision facing the Miami Dolphins on Day 1 of NFL Draft
What do you get a team that needs everything (except receivers)?
That’s the conundrum for the Dolphins in the first round of April’s NFL Draft.
Even with three first-round picks (5, 18, 26), there will be one or two glaring needs that cannot be addressed until Miami’s two picks in the second round or its single pick in the third round.
Here’s essentially what it comes down to: If Miami takes a quarterback with its first pick (Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa in a trade-up or Oregon’s Justin Herbert at No. 5), then Miami must choose two among a left tackle, edge defender (a defensive end or outside linebacker), cornerback and running back with the picks at 18 and 26 (presuming the 26th pick doesn’t need to be relinquished in a Tua trade-up, which is a real possibility).
▪ Cornerback: Of those four high-need positions outside of QB, a cornerback — which the Dolphins consider a glaring need — seems least likely at 18 or 26 because that’s not a sweet spot for the position.
All the prominent mockers have only or two cornerbacks going between 10 and 32 and it’s difficult for me to envision Miami drafting one of those two corners (UF’s CJ Henderson) because Brian Flores and defensive coordinator Josh Boyer always talk about the importance of having cornerbacks who can tackle, and Henderson had 18 total missed tackles on 86 attempts the past two seasons.
On the plus side, he allowed just 31 catches on 496 coverage snaps playing on the boundary since 2018, sixth-best in FBS. Also notable and a bit unsettling: He had four interceptions in 2017, two in 2018 and none last season.
The other cornerback considered a potential pick in the mid-20s — Auburn’s Noah Igbinoghene — is something of a project.
He has only one career interception in three seasons but returned two kickoffs for touchdowns.
“Igbinoghene is a track athlete who is still developing his technique, but he has the traits to be a star,” said ESPN’s Mel Kiper, who has Henderson going 20th and Igbinoghene 24th. “I think just his overall awareness in coverage improved to the point where he’s one of the faster corners in this draft, if not the fastest. I think he’s a first-round pick.”
▪ Offensive tackle: In part because of a weak free agent class, there’s a good chance an offensive tackle will be the pick at 18 or 26, even more so if Georgia’s Andrew Thomas slips to 18th, as ESPN’s Kiper and Todd McShay predict in mocking Thomas to Miami at that spot.
Why has Thomas slipped from a top-10 pick in the eyes of draftniks?
“Because this tackle class is so good at the top,” Kiper said. “A pure left tackle with great feet, Thomas doesn’t have the ceiling of Laremy Tunsil, but he’s a really solid player.”
At 26, Miami could turn to Houston’s Josh Jones (if available, which is highly questionable) or USC’s Austin Jackson, who NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah mocks to the Dolphins at 26, noting he is “very athletic, only 20 and has tremendous upside.”
Kiper has four offensive tackles off the board before 18: Alabama’s Jedrick Wills (sixth), Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs (eighth), Louisville’s Mekihi Becton (10th) and Jones (15th). And McShay has Jackson going 20th — another reason why tackle might need to be the priority at 18 if any of the top four is available at that spot.
▪ Edge guy (end or outside linebacker): There will be a handful in play at 18 and 26.
Clemson’s Isaiah Simmons (mocked ninth to Jacksonville by Kiper) will be gone by 18, but Iowa’s AJ Epenesa and LSU’s K’Lavon Chaisson could be in play at 18, and Wisconsin’s Zack Baun, Alabama’s Terrell Lewis, Penn State’s Yetur Gross-Matos and possibly Boise State’s Curtis Weaver and Auburn’s Marlon Davidson could be in the mix at 26, though Weaver and Davidson are considered more likely second-rounders.
At 18, Epenesa would be very tempting if there; Kiper, McShay and NFL Net’s Daniel Jeremiah all have him going 16th to Atlanta. He had 10.5 and 11.5 sacks the past two seasons, including eight in his final five games last season and “is great at getting his arms in passing lanes,” McShay said.
With Chaisson — who Kiper slots 14th - Miami must be comfortable with his medicals (missed most of 2018 with a torn ACL) and solid-but-not extraordinary college production (9.5 sacks in 24 games).
McShay mocks Baun to Miami at 26 — he would join Vince Biegel and Andrew Van Ginkel as Wisconsin edge guys on the Miami roster if this happens — and said: “His game jumps off the tape, and his 12.5 sacks show what he can do when he’s turned loose on the quarterback. But Baun is no one-trick pony, displaying the ability to play in coverage, too.”
Gross-Matos has 17.5 sacks the past two seasons and would be a natural outside linebacker in Miami’s 3-4 defense; Kiper has him 29th, ahead of Baun.
Lewis, who had 11.5 tackles for loss and 6.0 sacks last season after missing 2018 with a torn ACL, “helped himself a lot with a good week at the Senior Bowl,” McShay said in mocking him 27th. “He might need some time to develop, but there’s no denying his pass-rush talent and burst coming around the corner when chasing the quarterback.”
▪ Running back: Yes, I know you can find skilled running backs after the first round. But the thinking is that there’s a clear drop-off after Georgia’s D’Andre Swift, Ohio State’s JK Dobbins and to an extent, Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor, and no assurance that any will last to the Dolphins’ two picks in the second round (though Taylor’s fumble problems are pause for thought).
I’ve been told that the Dolphins hold Swift in high regard. But I would expect the Dolphins to have at least some level of interest in Dobbins as well, among others.
Swift, 5-9, averaged 6.6 per carry with 20 rushing touchdowns in three years for Georgia and caught 73 passes - averaging 9.1 per reception - and five touchdowns.
Kiper has Miami taking Swift at 26 and says he’s overall one of the top dozen prospects in this draft: “He runs through and by defenders, showing off what has scouts so excited about his potential. It starts with speed, as Swift is one of the fastest running backs in the country. But he also has a physical side, and he makes tacklers miss.”
McShay projects Swift as the first running back off the board, in the early 20s. But The Athletic’s Dane Brugler, a longtime draft analyst, has him falling to 35th.
Dobbins averaged 6.2 yards per carry in three seasons, with 4459 yards and 38 rushing touchdowns. And he was especially good this season, averaging 6.7 per carry and ending the season with enormous performances in four big games: 36-157 against Penn State, 31-211 against Michigan, 33-172 against Wisconsin and 18-174 against Clemson.
What’s more, he caught 71 passes in three seasons, averaging 9.1 per catch, with another five touchdowns.
Brugler has Dobbins going 26th to the Dolphins, with Houston’s pick, though ESPN’s group (Kiper, McShay) don’t see him going in the first round.
Taylor’s 18 fumbles in 926 college carries would make me hesitant with him, even in the second round.
NOTES ON JORDAN LOVE AND NEW TIGHT END MICHAEL ROBERTS
▪ Colleague Armando Salguero deftly explained the Dolphins’ thinking with Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert in this piece. And it was reiterated to me that Utah State’s Jordan Love intrigues the Dolphins, though there is some skepticism in their eyes about whether he’s a first-round pick.
▪ New Dolphins tight end Michael Roberts has overcome a lot — ADD, a speech impediment, a prison sentence for his father (for robbery and assault) and unspeakable family tragedy.
In 2012, his 10-year-old brother Cameron Roberts was killed, according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, after his 13-year-old brother Chris Roberts was handling a gun inside the family’s home when it accidentally went off and struck Cameron in the stomach.
The family was adamant that Chris should not be prosecuted, saying it had suffered enough and the brothers loved each other.
“It was an accident,” Roberts told Lions reporters after Detroit drafted him in the fourth round out of Toledo in 2017. “I was 17 at the time and I had just lost my grandmother a couple months before and I would say that that time period was definitely the hardest that I had to deal with in my life to date.”
▪ The Dolphins, who consistently do exemplary work in the community, won the NFL’s Huddle for 100 competition after leading the league in promoting “volunteerism and meaningful contributions throughout the country.”
The Dolphins had 75,623,500 volunteer minutes with the help of 89,210 volunteers during 163 events last year, beating all other NFL teams. The NFL awarded the Dolphins $100,000 to be used on a community service project.
This story was originally published February 21, 2020 at 1:55 PM.
