How Heat’s big summer of 2021 looks. And the trade’s potential impact on Jones’ future
The decision was inevitable, one that realistically needed to be made by July.
As it turns out, there was no need for the Heat to wait.
Given a choice of two young, defensively-skilled wing players, Miami — at least for now — chose the ambulatory, available and ascending one, opting for Derrick Jones Jr. over Justise Winslow, in what was eventually going to be an either/or scenario because of the Heat’s desire to maintain substantial summer-of-2021 cap space.
But in jettisoning Winslow to Memphis for Andre Iguodala and others, something else happened, too: If Jones (now a starter) plays well the rest of the season, he could emerge with the type of multiyear Heat contract that once seemed improbable to happen for him in Miami. Among all NBA forwards, Jones is holding the player he’s guarding to the second-lowest shooting percentage, behind only Giannis Antetokounmpo.
“I don’t think we have to evaluate him any more,” Heat president Pat Riley said Friday. “We know who Derrick is as a player. He’s still very young, one of the most explosive, exciting players in the game when he goes above the rim.
“I like the fact he’s improved his three-point shooting, like the fact he’s become a better, more consistent defender. When that time comes we have a decision to make” this summer when he becomes an unrestricted free agent.
If the Heat hadn’t traded Winslow to Memphis, and instead eventually exercised his $13 million team option for 2021-22, there would have been no way — without sacrificing critical 2021-22 cap space — to sign Jones past next season.
But because Iguodala also agreed to a $15 million team option in 2021-22 — one that would be easy to envision Miami declining at age 37 — the Heat is now positioned to give Jones a multiyear deal this summer, if it chooses, while maintaining space for Antetokounmpo or another max free agent in 2021.
And if Miami and Jones don’t agree on a multiyear deal this summer, Miami will have space to pursue a second player beyond a max star in 2021.
The NBA won’t inform owners of 2021-22 cap projections until April. But the cap for 2020-21 is expected to rise $6 million, to $115 million. So if there’s another $6 million jump, it would be $121 million for 2021-22.
Another variable: Though the Heat can exceed the cap to pay summer-of-2021 restricted free agents Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson essentially whatever is needed that summer, their cap hits — regardless of what they’re paid — would depend on whether they meet “starter criteria.”
A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency, or if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency.
If Robinson and Nunn meet starter criteria, their 2021-22 cap hits would be $4.7 million each. Otherwise, their hits would be $2.1 million. Regardless of which number applies, Miami could sign outside free agents first, then go over the cap to match any offer for either Nunn or Robinson.
So here’s how the summer-of-2021 math works:
If Robinson and Nunn meet starter criteria, the projected 2021-22 money on the Heat’s books (without Iguodala) would be about $78 million, $5 million less if they don’t meet starter criteria.
So if Miami parts with Iguodala after next season, it would have anywhere from $44 million to $49 million in cap space that summer of 2021 if the cap is $121 million. That would be enough for Antetokounmpo (whose max deal could start in the $36 million range) and potentially Jones or someone else. And if the 2021-22 cap is $125 million, as some speculate, the Heat’s cap room could be as high as $54 million.
If the Heat declines the Iguodala option for 2021-22, Miami’s cap commitments for 2021-22 include Jimmy Butler ($36 million), Tyler Herro ($4 million), Bam Adebayo (eligible for restricted free agency that summer, but his cap hit in 2021-22 will be $12.8 million, regardless of what he’s paid), Nunn and Robinson, the $4 million or so due Miami’s 2020 first-round pick, $1.4 million for both KZ Okpala and Chris Silva (non-guaranteed), Ryan Anderson’s $5.2 million hit and about $4 million in cap holds to fill out a roster.
Jones’ excellence defensively has reached the point that he has regularly asked Butler and Erik Spoelstra to allow him to defend the best perimeter scorer on the other team. Jones said they’ve both been agreeable to that.
“I have told them I want to guard the best player,” said Jones, who entered Wednesday’s game in Utah holding the player he’s guarding to 37.5 percent shooting. “Jimmy is one of the best defenders in the NBA. [But] I feel I’m better on the ball than Jimmy, and Jimmy is better off the ball. Me being on the ball, it gives him a break and it gets me going. I can get steals.”
And Jones’ offensive game also has improved, with Jones averaging a career-high 8.9 points on 49.4 percent shooting, though just 28.6 percent on threes.
It’s quite possible, of course, is that a team this summer could offer Jones a multiyear deal at a dollar amount that Miami is uncomfortable paying. That must still play out.
If the Heat cannot land Antetokounmpo in 2021 free agency, other potential unrestricted free agents that summer include Kawhi Leonard and Paul George (who both could decide to remain with the Clippers), Indiana’s Victor Oladipo (who has been linked to the Heat in speculation on ESPN’s The Jump), Utah’s Rudy Gobert, New Orleans’ Jrue Holiday (player option), Boston’s Gordon Hayward, San Antonio’s LaMarcus Aldridge, Phoenix’s Kelly Oubre Jr. and Philadelphia’s Josh Richardson (player option).
Here’s my Wednesday Heat 6-pack with news on Tyler Herro, Meyers Leonard, Andre Iguodala, Kendrick Nunn and Justise Winslow.
This story was originally published February 12, 2020 at 4:25 PM.
