Breaking down the Florida Panthers’ lottery scenarios entering final two games
The Florida Panthers’ draft lottery situation has become clearer with two games left in the regular season, with Florida retaining its first-round pick for the 2026 draft looking more like a certainty regardless of what happens in the lottery.
To quickly refresh the situation: The Panthers traded their 2026 first-round pick to the Chicago Blackhawks along with goaltender Spencer Knight for defenseman Seth Jones. However, the pick has a top-10 protection clause, meaning that the Panthers have the ability to retain the pick should they land in the top 10 of the draft order and give Chicago their 2027 first-round pick instead. If the pick ends up 11th or later, Chicago indeed gets Florida’s first-round pick for the 2026 draft.
In order to guarantee a top-10 selection this year, Florida has to finish among the bottom eight teams in the standings because up to two teams behind them in the draft order can jump them via the draft lottery.
So, here’s where things stand:
The Panthers enter their final two games with a 38-38-4 record for 80 points and a .500 points percentage. The points percentage is tied with the Seattle Kraken for the sixth-lowest in the NHL.
With two games left — home contests against the New York Rangers on Monday (7 p.m., Scripps Sports) and Wednesday against the Detroit Red Wings (7 p.m., Scripps Sports) — Florida can max out at 84 points. At worst, that puts them at No. 10 in the draft lottery standings since the New Jersey Devils, who are currently in 11th, already have 85 points.
For Florida to finish at least the eighth-worst, and thus guarantee a top-10 selection, the Panthers need one of the following scenarios to occur:
- Florida loses both games, with no more than one going beyond regulation (overtime or shootout). At 81 points, Florida would be no worse than eighth since the Winnipeg Jets and San Jose Sharks, tied for ninth, already have 82 points.
- Florida gets two points (either via two OT or shootout losses or one win and one regulation loss), and both Winnipeg and San Jose get at least one point over their final three games. The Jets and Sharks play each other in their regular-season finale on Thursday, so the winner will get two points. Should that game go to overtime, it would complete the process on its own. Winnipeg’s other games are against the Vegas Golden Knights on Monday and Utah Mammoth on Tuesday. San Jose’s other games are against the Nashville Predators on Monday and Chicago Blackhawks on Wednesday.
- Florida gets three points, and both Winnipeg and San Jose get at least two points over their final three games
- Florida gets all four points, and both Winnipeg and San Jose get at least three points over their final three games.
The Panthers can theoretically finish as high as fifth in the draft lottery rankings — which would give them an 8.5% chance of getting the No. 1 overall pick. Florida needs to jump three teams — the Toronto Maple Leafs, Seattle Kraken and St. Louis Blues, to do that. Here’s what Florida needs to move past each team:
- Toronto, with two games left (the Dallas Stars on Monday and Ottawa Senators on Wednesday), picks up at least three more points than Florida down the stretch. That means either two Toronto wins and Florida getting one point or fewer, or three Toronto points and Florida losing both of its remaining games in regulation.
- Seattle, with three games left (the Los Angeles Kings on Monday, Vegas on Wednesday and Colorado Avalanche on Thursday), picks up at least two more points than Florida. The Kraken have six points available to gain, the Panthers four.
- St. Louis, with three games left (the Minnesota Wild on Monday, Pittsburgh Penguins on Tuesday and Utah Mammoth on Thursday), picks up more points than Florida down the stretch. The Blues have six points available to gain, the Panthers four.
For each of these achieved, Florida would move up a spot in the lottery standings.
The Vancouver Canucks (54 points with three games left) are guaranteed the top spot in the draft lottery. The Chicago Blackhawks (70 points with two games left) are guaranteed a top-three spot. The Calgary Flames (73 points with three games left) and New York Rangers (75 points with two games left) are guaranteed a top-six spot.
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