Everything you need to know about the Florida Panthers’ draft lottery chances
The Florida Panthers spent their first three seasons under coach Paul Maurice chasing the Stanley Cup. They reached the Cup Final all three seasons, including winning it all in both 2024 and 2025 for the franchise’s first two championships.
Those hopes are gone this season, as the Panthers on Saturday were officially eliminated from making the postseason for the first time since 2019.
Now, the focus shifts elsewhere for Panthers fans.
Specifically, it shifts to the path toward the NHL draft lottery and a top-10 pick.
Here’s everything you need to know.
Didn’t the Florida Panthers trade their 2026 first-round pick?
Yes, technically the Panthers have traded their first-round draft pick for each of next two drafts — their 2026 first-round pick to the Chicago Blackhawks along with goaltender Spencer Knight for defenseman Seth Jones, their 2027 first-round pick to the Boston Bruins in the deal for Brad Marchand.
However, both picks have a top-10 protection clause, meaning that the Panthers have the ability to retain one of the picks should it land in the top 10 of the draft order.
So, if Florida’s pick for 2026 lands in the top 10, the Panthers will retain the pick. That would slide the 2027 draft pick to Chicago and the 2028 draft pick to Boston. If Florida’s pick for 2026 lands outside the top 10, Chicago retains the pick for 2026. The process could potentially repeat itself in 2027 between Florida and Boston. If neither pick during the next two years is in the top 10, then Florida’s next available first-round pick for its own use is in the 2028 draft.
How does the NHL draft lottery work?
A set of 14 ping-pong balls are placed in a lottery machine, which allows for 1,001 combinations (although one combination is deleted to make it an even 1,000 possibilities). The 16 teams that do not make the Stanley Cup playoffs are assigned a set of random four-number combinations. Teams with worse records get assigned a greater number of combinations. The team with the worst record gets 185 total combinations for an 18.5% chance of winning the first lottery draw.
There are two total drawings in the lottery to determine the Nos. 1 and 2 overall picks. However, teams can move up no more than 10 spots via the lottery. So if a team ranked Nos. 12-16 wins the first draw, then that team will move up respectively and the team with the worst record will stay at No. 1. The same applies for teams ranked Nos. 13-16 with the second draw. Teams are also not allowed to win the lottery more than twice in a five-year span.
For the Panthers, all of this means the Panthers need to finish the regular season with one of the eight worst records in the league in order to have a top-10 pick (and thus retain their first-round draft pick this year) because theoretically two teams at most can jump them in the draft order.
Picks in Rounds 2-7 will be in reverse order of final standings following the Stanley Cup playoffs, regardless of what happens with the lottery.
When do the lottery and the NHL draft take place?
The 2026 NHL Draft lottery is scheduled for May 5.
The two-day draft is set for June 26-27, with Round 1 starting at 7 p.m. June 26 and Rounds 2-7 taking place on June 27 starting at 10 a.m.
What are the odds for each team in the NHL draft lottery by place in the standings?
The breakdown is as follows:
No. 1: 18.5%
No. 2: 13.5%
No. 3: 11.5%
No. 4: 9.5%
No. 5: 8.5%
No. 6: 7.5%
No. 7: 6.5%
No. 8: 6%
No. 9: 5%
No. 10: 3.5%
No. 11: 3%
No. 12: 2.5%
No. 13: 2%
No. 14: 1.5%
No. 15: 0.5%
No. 16: 0.5%
Where are the Florida Panthers currently in the standings?
Based on points percentage, the Panthers (37-37-3, 77 points, .500) have the sixth-worst record in the NHL entering play Tuesday. If that were to hold at the end of the season, Florida at worst would be picking eighth and could pick as high as No. 1 if it wins the lottery.
How high could the Florida Panthers place in the draft lottery standings by the end of the season?
Should Florida lose its final five games of the regular season — road games at the Montreal Canadiens on Tuesday, Ottawa Senators on Thursday and Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday plus home games against the New York Rangers on Monday and Detroit Red Wings on April 15 — in regulation, the Panthers would stay at 77 points.
In a best-case scenario, that would put Florida with the second-best odds for the lottery.
The Vancouver Canucks, who will max out at 64 points, have already secured the top spot in the lottery draw. The Blackhawks, with 70 points entering Tuesday, will only surpass the Panthers if they go a perfect 4-0-0 and Florida fails to pick up a point the rest of the way. Meanwhile, the Calgary Flames (72 points with six games left), Rangers (75 points with four games left) and Seattle Kraken (75 points with six games left) could all pass the Panthers’ point total depending on how the rest of the season shakes out.
This story was originally published April 7, 2026 at 11:06 AM.
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