A complete breakdown of the Miami Dolphins’ playoff paths with key injury updates
The Miami Dolphins’ record got fat off the Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets in 2020.
Now, as the year comes to a close, they have two ways to get to the playoffs:
1. Win out, and guarantee themselves a ticket to the dance at 11-5.
Or 2. Finish 1-1 and get some unlikely help from those NFL dregs that helped them get in this position to begin with.
Put another way: Paths do exist for the Dolphins, who are 9-5 and currently the seventh seed in the AFC, to reach the playoffs at 10-6.
But no path exists without a win by the Bengals, Jaguars or Jets over the last two weeks — teams that have the three worst records in the NFL (they’re a combined 4-33-1), and are responsible for four of the Dolphins’ nine wins.
The most plausible scenario — and the word plausible is doing a lot of heavy lifting here — for the Dolphins to get in at 10-6 is to beat the Raiders on Saturday and have the Browns lose to the Jets (which Five Thirty Eight says has just an 18 percent chance of happening) and then the Steelers (which the forecasting model sees as a coin flip).
There is one other conceivable path: the Dolphins beat the Raiders and the Colts lose on the road against the Steelers and at home against the Jaguars, but the prediction model gives that series of events just a 4 percent chance of happening.
None of this is in the Dolphins’ control, of course, and they won’t talk about hypotheticals.
They will talk about things they can control: Winning at Las Vegas and Buffalo over the next two weeks.
“Our playoffs is this week against the Raiders,” Flores said Monday. “Let’s call it the playoffs, this week against the Raiders.”
The Raiders should be forewarned: The Dolphins will probably fly to Las Vegas on Christmas with a lot more firepower than they took into the Patriots game.
After beating the Patriots without six offensive starters, expect a good number of them back Saturday evening.
Myles Gaskin, the team’s leading rusher, is eligible to return to practice this week after missing the last two games due to the NFL’s COVID-19 policy — assuming he gets the proper medical clearance.
And there’s more: When Flores said the injured Dolphins “were very close” to playing Sunday, he wasn’t kidding. We hear at least one, and probably several, of the team’s scratches could have played against the Patriots if it was an elimination game. The Dolphins took the calculated risk that they could win without them.
That won’t be the case this week.
Along with Gaskin, there’s a decent chance that wide receiver DeVante Parker (hamstring), receiver/returner Jakeem Grant (hamstring) and guard Ereck Flowers (ankle) all will return for the Raiders game, and even interior lineman Solomon Kindley (knee) cannot be ruled out.
Kindley left the Patriots game with a knee injury but initial tests revealed no structural damage; more exams are to come, Flores said. And if tight end Mike Gesicki (shoulder) can go, the Dolphins would basically be at full strength — which is basically unheard of for this stage of the season.
“We wouldn’t put them out there or practice them if we didn’t feel like they could withstand a practice or a game,” Flores said. “[Gesicki is] fighting through it.”
Combined, those returning players might give the Dolphins enough offense to ride what has become a fantastic defense to the postseason.
Through Sunday’s games, the Dolphins had forced the most turnovers (26) and allowed the second-fewest points in the NFL (18.4 per game). A testament to how good the defense has been: The Dolphins are 1 in 3 to make the playoffs even though they will likely finish the season without a 2,000-yard passer, a 1,000-yard receiver or an 800-yard rusher.
The Dolphins open as 2.5-point favorite against the Raiders, who will likely start Marcus Mariota at quarterback with Derek Carr nursing a pretty serious groin injury.
Five Thirty Eight gives the Dolphins a 64 percent chance to beat the Raiders but just a 25 percent chance to beat the Bills. The latter projection, of course, assumes Buffalo plays to win — which is no sure bet.
Because the NFL expanded the playoffs to 14 teams, only the 1 seeds get first-round byes in 2020. Two games behind the Chiefs with two weeks to go, the Bills are not going to be that team from the AFC.
So Bills coach Sean McDermott might have to decide next week: Do we keep the momentum going and play our starters on the off chance we pass the Steelers (which would do little but move a potential Divisional Round game with no fans in the stands from Pittsburgh to Buffalo) or do we use Week 17 as our bye, get healthy and ready for the postseason?
The dropoff from Josh Allen, an MVP candidate, to backup Matt Barkley is huge, and the Dolphins would be as much as seven-point road favorites if the Bills rest their starters in the finale, according to Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports — a potential 14-points swing.
Factoring into any decision McDermott makes: Whether a season-ending loss would drop the Bills to the No. 4 seed, which would open the door for a second-round matchup against the Chiefs, a prospect Buffalo surely wants to avoid.
Regardless of the external, the Dolphins are in a playoff race with the second-youngest roster in football, and whatever experiences they bank this year will be beneficial in the years to come.
“Playing meaningful games, there’s a little bit of added anxiety or stress, but it’s good to kind of go through that and realize you’re still playing football,” Flores said. “It’s a one-game season for us.”
This story was originally published December 21, 2020 at 2:32 PM.
