What would it take for Heat to trade for Kyle Lowry? The challenges, decisions and more
With Thursday’s NBA trade deadline looming, one Miami Heat target has become clear.
A league source confirmed a report by The Ringer that the Heat is among the teams with interest in trading for Toronto Raptors guard Kyle Lowry, and Miami is one of the trade destinations that interests Lowry.
The Heat remains an active participant in the trade market even after already completing a deal last week with the Oklahoma City Thunder to acquire veteran forward Trevor Ariza. After picking itself up from the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings to get above .500 for the first time this season less than two weeks ago, the Heat (22-21) has dropped three in a row and hosts the surging Phoenix Suns on Tuesday (8 p.m., Fox Sports Sun).
The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor reported Sunday that “the Heat are pursuing a deal for Lowry harder than anyone.” The Los Angeles Clippers and Philadelphia 76ers are among the other teams with interest in Lowry.
The Ringer also noted that Miami is Lowry’s “preferred destination” because of his friendship with Heat star Jimmy Butler. But several recent reports in the Toronto media have also suggested that the Raptors are unlikely to trade Lowry, and some teams have told ESPN that the Raptors have not yet been aggressive engaging on a deal involving Lowry.
Lowry, who turns 35 on trade deadline day, is averaging 17.7 points while shooting 43.7 percent from the field and 39.4 percent on 7.2 three-point shot attempts per game, to go with 5.6 rebounds and 7.4 assists this season for a Raptors team that looks like it could need a small roster reset. Toronto has dropped eight in a row and is in 11th place in the Eastern Conference with a 17-25 record.
The challenge in trading for Lowry is tied to his $30.5 million salary for this season as part of an expiring contract. The Heat would need to send out at least about $24 million in salary to acquire Lowry in a trade, according to NBA rules.
That’s complicated because it would require the Heat to part ways with multiple rotation players.
Not counting Bam Adebayo and Butler, because the Heat will not include those two in a trade, the three highest salaries on the roster are Goran Dragic ($18 million salary for this season), Andre Iguodala ($15 million) and Kelly Olynyk ($12.6 million). It’s very likely that at least one of those three players would need to be included as part of the Heat’s package to get up to the $24 million threshold needed to acquire Lowry.
“The Raptors would require at least Tyler Herro or Duncan Robinson from Miami in any potential deal,” according to The Ringer.
Herro ($3.8 million) or Robinson ($1.7 million) could be attached to those bigger Heat contracts to facilitate a trade for Lowry. Other salaries belonging to Avery Bradley ($5.6 million), Moe Harkless ($3.6 million), Precious Achiuwa ($2.6 million), Kendrick Nunn ($1.7 million) and KZ Okpala ($1.5 million) are among the other options to include in a deal to get to the required $24 million line to make the trade math work.
If Toronto wants draft compensation in return for Lowry, Miami would need to reach an agreement with Oklahoma City to unlock protections on the 2023 Heat first-rounder that is due to the Thunder. That 2023 pick is lottery protected, and those protections that run until 2026 tie the other years up.
But if the Heat and Thunder agree to eliminate the protection on that 2023 pick — allowing Oklahoma City to have Miami’s 2023 first-rounder wherever it falls in the draft — the Heat would then be allowed to trade its 2025 and/or 2027 first-rounders to Toronto. Teams cannot trade first-round picks more than seven drafts into the future.
Hypothetically, a trade package that includes Iguodala, Olynyk and Robinson would satisfy the salary-matching requirements to add Lowry. Iguodala, Olynyk and Herro would also work.
But the question then becomes is the Heat willing to part with a young asset and multiple rotation players for a soon-to-be 35-year-old Lowry? Lowry, a six-time All-Star, is still playing at a high level and can certainly help Miami’s struggling offense and strengthen a defense that can use another reliable perimeter defender.
But including Herro, 21, means dealing away a player who’s in the second year of his rookie deal, has upside as a talented three-level scorer, and is believed to be one of the Heat’s top trade assets to land the third star it’s looking for.
Meanwhile, Robinson is set to become a restricted free agent this upcoming offseason and is expected to receive a significant pay raise. Robinson, 26, is also an important part of the Heat’s offense because of his ability to create space for others with his three-point shooting.
Trading away Olynyk and Iguodala, who both could become unrestricted free agents this upcoming offseason, would bring a lot of change to the Heat’s rotation. Olynyk has become a full-time starter alongside Adebayo in Miami’s frontcourt, and Iguodala has been a consistent part of the Heat’s late-game lineups this season.
Any Heat trade for Lowry would probably be contingent on the belief that he would re-sign with the Heat as a free agent this upcoming offseason. Miami is likely not going to trade a young asset to add Lowry as a short-term rental for the next few months.
If the Heat does not complete a trade for Lowry, the Heat could have between $21 million and $27 million in cap space to sign him in free agency this upcoming offseason if it does not bring back Dragic.
It’s also important to remember the Heat stands about $5.4 million below the luxury-tax line this season. A deal that would bring in $5.4 million or more than Miami sends out would make it a tax team, which is a place the Heat did not want to be entering the season.
Then there’s also the possibility of getting more players and teams involved to facilitate a trade that brings Lowry to Miami. There are plenty of ways to get a deal done if the two sides want to make it happen.
But it really all comes down to one simple question: Is the core trio of Adebayo, Butler and Lowry enough for the Heat to contend for a championship this season?
The Heat will only make this deal if the organization’s decision-makers feel strongly that the answer to that question is yes.
▪ The Ringer also reported Sunday that the Heat is considered “one of the favorites to land LaMarcus Aldridge if the San Antonio Spurs buy out the veteran big.” The Miami Herald reported earlier this month that the Heat is among the teams that has spoken to the Spurs about Aldridge.
▪ The Heat holds a $7.5 million trade exception that expires at 11:59 p.m. on Monday. Many trade exceptions simply expire without being used because the number of rotation-caliber players who can be acquired thorough this mechanism is often very limited.
HEAT VACCINATIONS
The Heat confirmed that members of the organization, including some players, have received the COVID-19 vaccine in consultation with their physicians.
The NBA’s plan is to relax some of its health and safety protocols for those who are fully vaccinated, including fewer mandatory COVID-19 tests, no quarantine requirements following contact tracing issues and the freedom to eat at restaurants again.
INJURY UPDATE
The Heat listed Bradley (right calf strain) and Dragic (lower back spasms) as questionable for Tuesday’s game against the Suns. Bradley has missed 22 consecutive games because of his calf injury and Dragic missed his first game because of his back issue in Sunday’s loss to the Indiana Pacers.
Forward Udonis Haslem (health and safety protocols because of contact tracing) remains out Tuesday.
This story was originally published March 22, 2021 at 10:18 AM.
