How Heat went from one of the NBA’s best three-point shooting teams to among the worst
The most confounding development of this Heat season?
How one of the NBA’s best three-point shooting teams suddenly became one of the worst.
Miami finished second in the league in three-point accuracy at 37.9 percent last season, capitalizing on an historic shooting season from Duncan Robinson, a very good one from Tyler Herro, the best three-point season of Kelly Olynyk’s career, one of the most sizzling three-point stretches in Jae Crowder’s life, and consistent deep shooting from Goran Dragic.
This season, each of those players (excluding Crowder, who joined the Phoenix Suns) has seen a dip in their three-point accuracy, and the upshot is that Miami enters Sunday’s 1 p.m. game against Indiana shooting just 34.5 percent on threes, ahead of only Washington, Cleveland and Houston. Miami has made only a quarter of its three-point attempts in consecutive losses to the Grizzlies and Pacers.
“They’re too good of shooters for that not to change,” Erik Spoelstra said Saturday.
Heat players are puzzled by the drop.
“I think we’re getting good looks,” Robinson said. “There’s definitely areas for improvement, just in terms of ball movement, player movement, everything. It’s not anyone being selfish or anything like that. It’s just about finding that connectivity and that rhythm. Sometimes it takes seeing a couple go through to really build that.
“So I think we all agree that we’re right there. We’ve got plenty of guys that can take and make shots. So it’s only a matter of time. But you don’t just want to sit back and be just kind of passive with that stuff. You have to try to work for solutions.”
Herro has a theory for the team’s collective three-point plunge:
“Teams know who we are now,” he said. “Last year, we might have caught some people by surprise. This year, there’s no surprise about you.”
But the Heat missed 11 of 12 wide open threes on Friday and has gone from shooting 40.3 percent on wide open threes last season (fifth best in the league) to 38 percent (ninth worst).
Robinson, who shot an unworldly 44.6 percent on threes last season, stands at 38.5 percent, which places him 73rd in the league. He’s the only Heat player in the NBA’s top 100 in three-point accuracy.
Robinson remains an above-average three-point shooter, and teams have defended him more aggressively this season, which is one factor for the drop in accuracy.
More disconcerting is the plunging percentages for Herro and Olynyk.
Herro has gone from shooting 38.9 percent on threes as a rookie to 32.9 and is in the midst of a 7 for 31 slump. Only five NBA shooting guards have shot a worse percentage on threes: Victor Oladipo, Josh Richardson, Ben McLemore, Kelly Oubre and Josh Jackson.
Herro said he “can’t get discouraged” by his three-point dip. “I’ve got to continue to shoot.”
Olynyk has gone from shooting a career-high 40.6 percent on threes to a career-low 32.8 and is 2 for his past 13. Among centers with enough three pointers to qualify, only Indiana’s Myles Turner has shot threes at a lower percentage.
Among power forwards with enough three-point attempts to qualify, only Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetkounmpo and OKC’s Darius Bazley have shot worse than Olynyk on three-pointers.
Olynyk has been raised in Heat trade talks, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported.
Dragic’s percentage also has dropped, from 36.7 to 34.9. Jimmy Butler, who doesn’t shoot many threes, has dipped from 24.4 to 22.0 (11 for 50).
Robinson said shooting coach Rob Fodor hasn’t made major changes with any of the Heat’s shooters this season. Fodor, a highly-regarded shooting coach, apparently hasn’t felt the need to do that because most of these players have established themselves as above-average shooters in the past.
“No one is breaking all the way down and restructuring anything from a mechanical standpoint,” Robinson said. “Maybe little tweaks here and there, but we were doing the same stuff last year.
“I’m not shooting the ball personally as well as I did at times last year. But it’s just about continuing to stay the course, handle the work, handle the reps, stack good days on top of each other and the makes will come. You try not to get too down in moments like this where shots aren’t falling and too high in moments where everything is going in. Just stay even keeled and keep pushing.”
Two Heat wings who returned from last season’s team have seen their percentage rise from a season ago: Andre Iguodala from 29.8 to 34.4 and Kendrick Nunn from 35 to 35.1. Avery Bradley also has boosted his shooting, to 42.1 percent (16 for 38), but has played in only 10 games and remains out indefinitely.
What’s clear is that three-point shooting has correlated to wins and losses. Miami is 1-7 when it makes fewer than 10 threes in a game.
The Heat hopes Trevor Ariza - who shot 40 percent on threes in 21 games with Portland last season - can provide a boost in that area. He missed both his shots in his 14-minute Heat debut on Friday.
The three-point struggles of Oladipo this season could impact whether Miami pursues him before Thursday’s trade deadline. He’s shooting just 31 percent on threes (45 for 145) since his trade from Indiana to Houston.
Because Butler and Adebayo aren’t big three-point threats (they’re a combined 13 for 56 on threes), a case could be made that anybody acquired by Miami in the coming days should be an above-average distance shooter.
THIS AND THAT
▪ When the Heat and Pacers play again on Sunday, Bradley will miss a 22nd consecutive game with a strained left calf, and Spoelstra said he has no timetable for Bradley’s return.
Iguodala, who has missed two games with a sore left hip, is questionable. Dragic (back spasms) also is questionable for Sunday.
▪ The Heat studied film a day after Friday’s mortifying 137-110 loss to the Pacers, who shot 58.4 overall and 55.6 on threes. “They outplayed us in so many different categories,” Spoelstra said Saturday. “It felt like we were on our heels the entire night.”
▪ Spoelstra said there are a “lot of different factors” he’s weighing in whether to play Chris Silva or Precious Achiuwa when Adebayo goes to the bench. “Some [are] matchups and what fits best for that game,” he said.
Silva has played 31 minutes over the past six games, and was a DNP-CD (did not play/coach’s decision) once. Achuiwa has played 34 minutes over the past six games, with one DNP-CD.
This story was originally published March 20, 2021 at 1:05 PM.
