A closer look at the Miami Heat’s first 10 games, with trends and stats to know
The bad news for the Miami Heat is it has a 4-6 record after the first 10 games of the season. The good news for the Heat is there are still more than 60 scheduled regular-season games to play.
This is certainly not the start to the season the Heat was hoping for after representing the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals just a few months ago.
Miami entered Friday with a net rating of minus-2.9, which ranks 21st in the NBA and 10th among East teams.
The Heat is one of seven teams with both an offensive rating and defensive rating that ranks in the bottom half of the league at this point in the season. The other six teams on that list are the Houston Rockets, Golden State Warriors, Detroit Pistons, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks and Oklahoma City Thunder.
Some of these early-season struggles could be explained by injuries, COVID-19-related absences and the outlier of a 47-point loss to the Milwaukee Bucks that’s weighing numbers down.
“I don’t think we’ve caught stride, obviously, yet,” second-year guard Tyler Herro said, with the Heat beginning a quick two-game homestand Saturday against the Pistons (8 p.m., Fox Sports Sun). “We haven’t really had a full team at full strength. We’re still learning, we’re still adjusting to everybody. It’s a new team, it’s a new year. We definitely aren’t hitting the panic button. We know what we have in the locker room and we’re still putting everything together.
“But we’re not going to fall back or relax. It’s time to continue to just stay at it and continue to grind and get better. We’re just trying to get better to prepare ourselves for the playoffs.”
While the first 10 games are probably not an accurate representation of what this Heat team ultimately will be for various reasons, here are some early numbers that help explain what has gone on up to this point.
▪ More Bam and Jimmy, please: Of the 485 game minutes the Heat has played this season, it has only had its All-Star duo of Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler on the court together for 127 of those minutes, according to NBA tracking stats. That’s just 26.2 percent of the time, with Butler missing two of the first four games because of a sprained ankle and Adebayo and Butler each missing the past two games because of the NBA’s COVID-19 health and safety protocols.
As a comparison, the All-Star duo of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum have been on the court together for 55.1 percent of the Portland Trail Blazers’ game minutes through their first 12 games of the season.
Sometimes, the solution is as simple as just having your best players available more often. The Heat definitely needs more Adebayo-Butler minutes moving forward.
Surprisingly, the Heat has posted a plus/minus of minus-16 in the 127 minutes Adebayo and Butler have played together this season. But the expectation is that number will normalize and trend in a more positive direction as the minutes begin piling up. Miami was a plus-234 with Adebayo and Butler on the court last regular season, and they played together for 45.1 percent of the team’s game minutes.
Many of the Heat’s early-season issues come down to this: Just not enough Adebayo-Butler minutes.
▪ An offensive start: After finishing last season with the league’s seventh-best offensive rating (scoring 111.9 points per 100 possessions), the Heat entered Friday with the NBA’s 22nd-best offensive rating (106.9 points per 100 possessions) through the first 10 games this season.
Offense is was what drove Miami to so many wins last season, and it’s also a key part of this season’s formula with 13 players returning. To get to where the Heat expects to get to, it can’t have one of the least efficient offenses in the NBA. It can’t even just be a mediocre offensive team. The Heat has to find its way into the top 10 by the end of the season to have sustained success this season.
Some of the struggles come down to key players missing time. It’s also just early and the sample size is still small, and the hope and expectation is that the offensive efficiency will improve as the rotation stabilizes and the season goes on.
But even with Adebayo, Butler and veteran guard Goran Dragic on the court this season, Miami’s offense has been inefficient. The Heat has scored just 85 points per 100 possessions in the 28 minutes that trio has played together.
One big (early) difference from last season: The Heat’s three-point percentage of 35.8 ranks 18th in the league this season. Miami finished last season with the NBA’s second-best three-point percentage at 37.9.
▪ What about the defense?: The Heat’s defense, based on league ranking, has actually been better than its offense in the first 10 games. Miami entered Friday with the NBA’s 17th-best defensive rating (allowing 109.8 points per 100 possessions).
That’s not far off from where the Heat was last season, when it finishing with a defensive rating of 109.3 that ranked 12th-best in the league.
In the six games Butler has played in this season, the Heat allowed 104.3 points per 100 possessions in the minutes he was on the court. Without Butler on the court, Miami is allowing 111.7 points per 100 possessions in the first 10 games.
▪ Turnovers not helping: Another factor that’s hurting the Heat’s offense? Turnovers. Miami entered Friday averaging the second-most turnovers in the NBA at 17.8 per game, and it also owns the league’s highest turnover rate (percentage of plays that end with a team turnover) at 17.1 percent.
The turnovers aren’t just hurting the Heat’s offense though, it’s also affecting its defense. Miami has allowed a league-high 21.9 points off turnovers per game this season.
To improve on both ends of the court, finding a way to cut down on turnovers is very important. Even if it’s just eliminating two or three turnovers per game.
The Heat also struggled with early-season turnover issues last season, averaging 18.5 turnovers in the first 10 games before cleaning things up to finish the season averaging 14.9 turnovers. This is a reminder that just because Miami has started sloppy doesn’t mean it can’t solve its turnover issues in the coming weeks and months.
▪ No second chances: The Heat has the league’s second-worst offensive rebounding percentage (the percentage of available offensive rebounds a team grabs) at 22.2 percent to begin the season.
Opponents have outscored Miami 13.5-9.7 in second-chance points, a four-point margin that will be costly for the Heat in close games.
▪ In the clutch: The Heat is 1-3 in clutch games this season. A “clutch” situation is defined as a game that has a margin of five points or fewer inside the final five minutes of the fourth quarter.
Miami has shot just 4 of 18 on threes and is allowing opponents to shoot 52.5 percent in “clutch” situations to begin the season.
Winning close games was an important part of Miami’s run to the Finals last season, as it posted an impressive 11-3 record in “clutch” games last postseason.
▪ Bam’s game expanding: Adebayo has averaged 17.4 points on 64.2 percent shooting, nine rebounds and five assists in eight games to begin his fourth NBA season.
On the surface, those numbers are close to what Adebayo is expected to produce this season. But it’s how Adebayo has scored those points that’s noteworthy.
Adebayo is 10 of 24 (41.7 percent) on midrange shots, which is a big improvement from last regular season when he made just 22.3 percent of his midrange shots. This positive trend began during the playoffs, when he was 17 of 37 (45.9 percent) on midrange shots.
Adebayo has not yet attempted a three-point shot this season. But that’s expected to eventually be incorporated into his game, too.
▪ In the paint: Despite shooting an underwhelming 30.2 percent on threes in the first 10 games, Herro is off to a strong start on the offensive end this season.
How could that be? Herro is shooting 22 of 29 (75.9 percent) from inside the restricted area and 60.7 percent from inside the paint.
For perspective, Herro shot 50.9 percent from inside the restricted area and 47.1 percent from inside the paint during his impressive playoff run last season.
This is further proof that Herro, 20, is much more than just an outside shooter. He has already proven to be an effective and creative scorer around the basket.
▪ Let’s start (and end) here: With the Heat battling injuries and COVID-19 issues and coach Erik Spoelstra still working through rotation combinations early in the season, seven different starting lineups have already been used in the first 10 games.
But before half of the Heat’s roster went out because of health and safety protocols, it looked like Spoelstra had found a starting group he felt comfortable sticking with. The lineup of Herro, Duncan Robinson, Butler, Kelly Olynyk and Adebayo was used to start three consecutive games before COVID-19 issues forced eight players to miss time.
The Herro-Robinson-Butler-Olynyk-Adebayo combination is a plus-nine in 51 minutes together this season.
