Why each Sweet 16 team will (and won’t) win the NCAA Tournament basketball championship
The top three seeds in every region of the NCAA tournament are still left with hopes of cutting down the nets in Minneapolis.
It’s the second week of the tournament. The Sweet 16 takes place Thursday and Friday at four regional cities: Washington D.C., Anaheim, Louisville and Kansas City.
Here are some quick reasons for, and against, each team’s chances at winning this year’s national title, going from the East Region to the West Region, and South Region to Midwest Region:
Duke Blue Devils
Why they will win the title: They have two of the top three picks in most mock NBA Draft boards in Zion Williamson and R.J. Barrett, with Zion often considered a once-in-a-generation star.
Why they won’t: Their 3-point shooting is not good, averaging 30.7 percent — which ranks 330th out of 351 teams in Division I.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Why they will win the title: A healthy Justin Robinson does wonders for Va Tech, who was 7-5 without its star point guard. Robinson is back, helping the Hokies win their last two tournament games.
Why they won’t: The Hokies are ranked 129th in scoring offense.
LSU Tigers
Why they will win the title: Tremont Waters is a clutch-shooter and the team plays with some swagger, which is good to have in tight games.
Why they won’t: LSU struggles in rebounding on the defensive end, giving up too many second-chance points. The Tigers rank 156th in defensive rebounding and gave up 17 second-chance points to Maryland, which also used a zone defense to frustrate LSU’s offense in a second-half comeback bid in the second round.
Michigan State Spartans
Why they will win the title: Tom Izzo can flat-out coach and the Spartans are solid defensively, ranking No. 8 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency.
Why they won’t: The injuries that have occurred throughout the season suddenly happen to a key player, and Michigan State can’t recover.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Why they will win the title: The Zags have the best scoring offense in the country, averaging 88.8 points per game.
Why they won’t: Any sort of foul trouble to stars Brandon Clarke and Rui Hachimura and the Bulldogs are in trouble, because this year’s team doesn’t possess lots of depth.
Florida State Seminoles
Why they will win the title: They’re experienced, playing with a purpose (injured redshirt senior Phil Cofer’s father passed away last Thursday) and have tons of length to cause havoc on the defensive end in an attempt to further last year’s Elite Eight run.
Why they won’t: The Seminoles rank 210th in turnovers, averaging 13.3 per game.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Why they will win the title: The Red Raiders have a punishing defense that yields just 59.2 points per game.
Why they won’t: No team has ever lost its first conference tournament game and then captured the national title.
Michigan Wolverines
Why they will win the title: The Wolverines have a formidable defense, ranking second only to Virginia in scoring defense, at 58.2 points allowed per game.
Why they won’t: As good as their defense is, their offense can be anemic. Michigan ranks 238th in scoring offense this season.
Virginia Cavaliers
Why they will win the title: They extinguished the awful memories of becoming the first No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed from last year to win that 1-vs.-16 matchup this season. The chance of making new memories could carry this group to the program’s first Final Four since 1984.
Why they won’t: An early deficit hinders Michigan’s methodical playing style. UVA, under coach Tony Bennett, is know for controlling the tempo.
Oregon Ducks
Why they will win the title: It’s called the Block Party, and Kenny Wooten is your host. He blocked seven shots against UC Irvine, while the Ducks, who are peaking at the right time, have 13 blocks as a team in two tournament wins.
Why they won’t: No team seeded 12 or lower has ever made the Final Four, let alone won the national title.
Purdue Boilermakers
Why they will win the title: No team can stop star Carsen Edwards from scoring 30-plus points
Why they won’t: See Texas Tech’s reason above. They’re in trouble if Edwards suddenly goes cold, like he did against Minnesota in the Big Ten Conference tournament quarterfinals, and nobody picks up the slack.
Tennessee Volunteers
Why they will win the title: When they play like they did in the first half of the game against Iowa, they’re nearly unstoppable.
Why they won’t: They play like the second half of the game against Iowa. Oh, and their lack of shooting from 3-point range, where the Vols rank 277th in the country for 3-point field goal attempts, could bite them if they run into a team that’s shooting lights-out from deep.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Why they will win the title: The Tar Heels rank in the top three in both scoring offense (86.1 ppg) and rebounding margin (+9.7), with X-factor point guard Coby White and sharpshooting Cameron Johnson capable of lighting it up any given night. It’s an almost unbeatable combo.
Why they won’t: They’re running into a buzzsaw in Auburn. Beyond that, UNC ranks 208th in scoring defense, allowing 72.5 points per game.
Auburn Tigers
Why they will win the title: They are red-hot, with a current 10-game winning streak that includes beating Tennessee by 20 points in the SEC tournament title game.
Why they won’t: The magic run hits a wall and the mental mistakes at the end of the New Mexico State game occur again. It would also be problematic if their 3-point shooting — they rank second in the nation in 3-point attempts — goes cold.
Houston Cougars
Why they will win the title: They lead the country in field-goal percentage defense. Teams shoot a paltry 36.7 percent from the floor against the Cougars.
Why they won’t: They turn the ball over 12.21 times per game and have the second-worst free-throw percentage among teams still dancing.
Kentucky Wildcats
Why they will win the title: Their leading scorer and rebounder, sophomore PJ Washington, comes back from injury (a six-second clip posted to Twitter shows him out of the walking boot on his sprained left foot) to lead UK.
Why they won’t: Washington doesn’t come back, despite being out of the walking boot, at full strength, or at all, and UK’s lack of experience proves its undoing.
