The Miami mayoral runoff is a test Republicans can’t afford to lose | Opinion
The Miami mayoral election is headed for a runoff. Out of thirteen mayoral candidates, it’s now down to two: Former Miami-Dade County Commissioner Eileen Higgins, a registered Democrat, and former City Manager Emilio González, a registered Republican.
When I was an adjunct professor at Palm Beach Atlantic University, I used to tell my students that voting is the most important thing you can do as a member of society. It’s your civic duty. And for Republicans, the duty is especially urgent.
Technically, the race is nonpartisan but the partisan lines have been drawn. Higgins has been endorsed by Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava and other Democrats, while Gonzalez has been endorsed by Gov. Ron DeSantis and Republican lawmakers.
If Republicans want to keep control of the Miami mayor’s seat — a reign they’ve enjoyed since 2009 — they’ll need to turn out and vote on Dec. 9. Otherwise, City Hall could turn blue for the first time since former President Barack Obama occupied the White House.
Miami is the largest city in South Florida, and one of the most recognizable cities in the world. Losing the mayor’s race next month would slow down the GOP’s progress in ending Miami-Dade’s reputation as a blue bastion. A Democratic mayor would also jeopardize the Magic City’s momentum on becoming a technology hub and its pro-business climate. Gonzalez would have access to decision makers in both Tallahassee and Washington, D.C., which could help generate more money back into the city.
While Miami-Dade County flipped red in 2024 with President Donald Trump’s victory, Miami is an outlier. The city narrowly voted for Kamala Harris and Democrats have a five-point voter-registration advantage — with over 61,000 voters compared to over 53,000 registered Republicans. However, nearly 56,000 voters are registered as non-party affiliated (NPA), exceeding Republican numbers — giving NPAs the chance to decide the election.
Republicans have long been viewed as super voters, showing up to vote for every election, including off-year elections. But this year, GOP voters lagged at the polls — about 11,000 registered Republicans voted while about 16,000 Democrats cast their ballot in Miami. Out of 174,462 eligible voters in the city, only 37,808 cast ballots — a meager 21.67% turnout. While turnout was low, 21.67% was higher than the last mayoral election in 2021, which saw 14.12% voter participation.
That should be a wake-up call for Republicans.
Matthew Isbell, a Democratic elections’ analyst, told the Miami Herald, “Higgins and González both have a path.” Isbell, who runs the X account Florida Data Geek, shared a Miami mayor election results map and posted, “I am treating this as a tossup with a month of campaigning and GOTV to decide it.”
The path to victory for the GOP is simple: show up and vote.
It remains to be seen if Trump will weigh in and endorse Gonzalez. As I’ve previously noted, endorsements are nice to have, but they don’t guarantee an electoral victory. But if Trump does back Gonzalez, he should do it soon to give the campaign as much runway to capitalize on it. Trump’s endorsement in the race could be a good thing for Gonzalez because it would send a message to the Republican base that he is the chosen one.
Under Mayor Frances Suarez, a Republican, the Magic City has become a global business hub and attracted investors as well as talent from around the world. Suarez isn’t without his controversies and, while there has been some serious dysfunction on the commission, Gonzalez has made clear he will be a no-nonsense mayor. The next mayor will decide if the city continues in that direction or if it changes course.
Five weeks is a sprint for any campaign and Dec. 9 is fast approaching.
This runoff is anyone’s election to lose, and could be determined by a few hundred votes. The City of Miami could see its own version of the 2000 presidential election, where the outcome was decided by 537 votes.
Democrats have already proven they can turn out their base. The question is: will Miami Republicans answer the call?
Mary Anna Mancuso is a member of the Miami Herald Editorial Board. Her email: mmancuso@miamiherald.com
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