The political endorsement isn’t what it used to be — and that’s OK | Opinion

The Florida GOP gubernatorial primary election is heating up. But one thing has changed — endorsements from President Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis don’t carry the same weight they once did. And that’s a good thing.

Republican Congressman Byron Donalds is running and has been endorsed by President Donald Trump. Initially, there were questions about whether Trump’s endorsement would keep Republican challengers at bay. It didn’t.

Former Speaker of the Florida House Paul Renner launched his gubernatorial campaign last month. During his time as speaker, Renner was a key DeSantis ally. But when asked about Renner’s candidacy during a press conference Sept. 3, DeSantis said, “I’m not supporting Paul Renner, I think it was an ill-advised decision to enter the race.”

Renner told the Miami Herald, “I would say that eventually, the governor would back me because I was a key architect in the legacy that he talks about … I’ve been an architect in the Florida that many voters, certainly Republican voters, love about Florida.”

Renner’s willingness to buck the governor is a calculation. He’s betting that Republican primary voters care more about achievements than political anointments. Recent elections suggest he could be right.

In 2022, Trump endorsed 24 candidates in gubernatorial primaries across the country. Less than half of the candidates he endorsed won their elections, such as Kari Lake in Arizona, Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania and Tudor Dixon in Michigan, who all lost.

In 2024, DeSantis’ presidential campaign racked up various endorsements by state legislators across the country. They weren’t big names, and his campaign eventually floundered. He suspended it and endorsed Trump.

In previous elections, a Trump endorsement could’ve cleared the field. Today, though, it’s a different story. It’s like owning a Birkin bag — nice to have as an accessory, but not necessary.

That doesn’t mean endorsements are worthless. Trump’s endorsement of Donalds has given the congressman advantages, especially with fundraising — Donalds has raised $31.5 million since launching his campaign — and it’s helped boost Donalds’ name recognition. But that’s just a starting point. It doesn’t guarantee a win, especially with opposition during the primary.

Even in Republican primary elections, getting the nod from Trump doesn’t always equal a win. Just ask Nebraska gubernatorial hopeful Charles Herbster, who lost his 2022 primary race, despite a Trump endorsement, to Jim Pillen, who is now governor.

In Florida, Trump’s support of Donalds hasn’t dissuaded primary opposition.

A recent poll by Florida-based conservative think tank James Madison Institute gave Donalds the edge over Renner. But against Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis, rumored to be considering a run for governor, Donalds trailed by three points.

Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio — who is also Donalds’ pollster — pushed back on the poll because Trump’s endorsement wasn’t disclosed to respondents. He said prior polls had shown Trump’s endorsement had significant impact on voters’ support.

Maybe so, but if Trump’s endorsement carries so much weight, why are other candidates running or exploring a run for Florida governor?

While DeSantis hasn’t endorsed anyone running for governor yet, there are rumors that his lieutenant governor, Jay Collins, is preparing to run for governor. If that happens, the Republican primary will be a three-way race, with three qualified and conservative candidates.

The political endorsement isn’t dead, but it’s not what it once was. Trump’s support still matters, and it can still move the needle, but it’s not going to stop others from jumping in. The same can be said about DeSantis’s support: He can still throw grenades and make headlines but his backing isn’t keeping other candidates from running.

In 2026, the governor’s seat will be open. Republicans, the dominant political force in Florida, will get to choose their nominee based on who’s been anointed, sure, but also on the candidates’ backgrounds, records and vision for Florida’s future. That’s exactly how it should be.

Mary Anna Mancuso is a member of the Miami Herald Editorial Board. Her email: mmancuso@miamiherald.com