How much storm surge will Tropical Storm Nicole bring to Florida? See the risk by area

Much of Florida’s east coast and part of its west coast are under a storm surge warning or watch Tuesday as Tropical Storm Nicole treks toward the state.

Nicole is forecast to be at or near Category 1 hurricane-level strength when it approaches Florida’s east coast Wednesday night, bringing heavy rain, strong winds and dangerous storm surge to the state.

Storm surge is rising water pushed onto land by a storm’s wind, and above or beyond the regular tide levels an area experiences, according to the National Hurricane Center. Flooding from storm surge depends on several factors including a storm’s track, strength, speed and size.

Which part of Florida will see the most storm surge?

Here’s what forecasters say:

Which part of Florida will see the most storm surge? What about in South Florida?

The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday morning said it expects the most storm surge, 3 to 5 feet, will occur north of Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound, Georgia, including Florida’s St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge in Jacksonville.

In South Florida, the hurricane center predicts 2 to 4 feet of storm surge will be possible from Broward’s Hallandale Beach to north of Palm Beach. Forecasters say 1 to 2 feet of storm surge could also be possible from coastal Miami-Dade County, including Biscayne Bay, to Hallandale Beach.

What about other parts of Florida?

Use the map below to see the hurricane center’s peak storm surge prediction:

Nicole storm surge watches/warnings in Florida

▪ Storm surge warning in effect from North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound, Georgia, including the mouth of Florida’s St. Johns River to Georgetown.

▪ Storm surge watch in effect from North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach in Broward. A watch also remains in effect from the Anclote River to Suwanee River.

READ NEXT: Are you under a watch or warning ahead of Nicole? Here are the alerts for Florida coast

This story was originally published November 8, 2022 at 8:45 AM.

Michelle Marchante

Miami Herald

305-376-2708

Michelle Marchante covers the pulse of healthcare in South Florida and also the City of Coral Gables. Before that, she covered the COVID-19 pandemic, hurricanes, crime, education, entertainment and other topics in South Florida for the Herald as a breaking news reporter. She recently won first place in the health reporting category in the 2025 Sunshine State Awards for her coverage of Steward Health’s bankruptcy. An investigative series about the abrupt closure of a Miami heart transplant program led Michelle and her colleagues to be recognized as finalists in two 2024 Florida Sunshine State Award categories. She also won second place in the 73rd annual Green Eyeshade Awards for her consumer-focused healthcare stories and was part of the team of reporters who won a 2022 Pulitzer Prize for the Miami Herald’s breaking news coverage of the Surfside building collapse. Michelle graduated with honors from Florida International University and was a 2025 National Press Foundation Covering Workplace Mental Health fellow and a 2020-2021 Poynter-Koch Media & Journalism fellow.  Support my work with a digital subscription