When will Miami and the rest of Florida feel Tropical Storm Nicole’s rain and wind?
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Tropical Storm Nicole
The latest on a storm that is forecast to affect Florida’s eastern coast.
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Tropical Storm Nicole is forecast to make landfall along Florida’s east coast this week, bringing heavy rain, dangerous storm surge and strong winds to the state.
Florida is under several watches and warnings for the system, which is forecast to be at or near Category 1 hurricane-level strength when it nears Florida’s east coast Wednesday night. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 34 counties.
Where will Nicole make landfall in Florida? How strong will it be? And when will Florida start feeling it?
Here’s what the forecast shows:
Where could Nicole make landfall? How strong will it be?
Nicole could possibly be at or near Category 1 hurricane strength by the time it approaches Florida’s east coast Wednesday night, according to the National Hurricane Center’s Tuesday morning advisory.
The National Hurricane Center nudged Nicole’s predicted track north toward Melbourne, moving Miami-Dade and Broward out of the cone of uncertainty, but Nicole’s wind field is already nearly the size of the entire state, so its effects will be felt throughout Florida starting as early as Wednesday.
“Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast U.S.,” the hurricane center said.
Once Nicole makes landfall, the system is forecast to move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday night, according to the hurricane center.
READ MORE: Should you put up hurricane shutters for Nicole? Depends where you live in South Florida
When will South Florida feel Nicole?
The hurricane center expects portions of Florida’s east coast will begin to feel tropical storm conditions by Tuesday night, with hurricane conditions likely by Wednesday night. Most of Florida’s east coast, and parts of the state’s west coast, is also under a storm surge warning or watch.
READ MORE: How much storm surge will Tropical Storm Nicole bring to Florida? See the risk by area
How much of an impact Nicole will have on Miami-Dade, Broward and Monroe will depend on where the center of the system comes ashore. Based on Nicole’s current track, here’s what South Florida should expect:
▪ South Florida could see heavy rain, strong winds, isolated tornadoes, dangerous marine and surf conditions and life-threatening storm surge flooding, according to the National Weather Service in Miami. Most of the rain is forecast to be felt Wednesday into Thursday morning. For flash flooding, forecasters say the biggest concern is where coastal flooding is occurring and also in poor drainage areas.
“Based on the current forecast for Nicole, the reasonable worst case scenario is for tropical storm force winds particularly across the Palm Beach region and Broward county. Should the threat materialize, tropical storm force winds could begin as early as Wednesday morning but most likely during the afternoon,” the National Weather Service in Miami said in its Tuesday morning hurricane statement. “Along the immediate coast, hurricane force winds are a reasonable worse case scenario mainly across portions of coastal Palm Beach county.”
▪ The National Weather Service in Key West expect the island chain will continue to see hazardous marine winds and seas through Thursday night and has a small craft advisory in effect. Forecasters say there will be coastal flooding, with the “greatest potential times” forecast to be Wednesday and Thursday night, with overnight squally showers and some thunderstorms also possible.
▪ There’s a high risk of rip currents at all Atlantic beaches, as well as a high surf risk primarily for Palm Beach County beaches, according to the weather service’s hazardous weather outlook.
“Swimmers should exercise caution today and make sure they only swim in view of an on-duty lifeguard,” the weather service said.
READ NEXT: Miami bridges locking down ahead of Nicole. What to know about timing and who’s affected
What will the weather be like on Election Day in South Florida?
There’s good news for voters:
Nicole shouldn’t affect your trip to the polls on Election Day. The National Weather Service’s forecast is calling for Tuesday to be mostly sunny in Miami-Dade, Broward, Monroe and Palm Beach counties with a high in the 80s. There’s a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Rain chances are expected to pick up Tuesday night. The polls close at 7 p.m.
Are there any Nicole watches, warnings in effect for Florida?
▪ A hurricane warning is in effect for Florida’s east coast from Boca Raton in Palm Beach County to the Flagler/Volusia County Line. This means hurricane conditions are expected in the area.
▪ A hurricane watch is in effect from Broward’s Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton in Palm Beach County. A watch also remains for Lake Okeechobee and from the Flagler/Volusia County line to Ponte Vedra Beach in St. Johns County.
▪ A tropical storm warning is in effect for Florida’s east coast from Broward’s Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton in Palm Beach County. A warning also remains for Lake Okeechobee and from Florida’s Flagler/Volusia County line to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.
▪ A tropical storm watch is in effect from Miami-Dade County to Hallandale Beach in Broward County. A watch also remains in effect from Bonita Beach north to the Ochlockonee River.
▪ A storm surge warning is in effect from North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound, Georgia, including the mouth of Florida’s St. Johns River to Georgetown. This means that life-threatening flooding is possible somewhere in the area, generally within 48 hours.
▪ A storm surge watch is in effect from North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach in Broward. A watch also remains in effect from the Anclote River to Suwanee River.
READ MORE: Florida is under a hurricane and storm surge watch. What should you be doing right now?
Miami Herald staff writers Alex Harris and Omar Rodríguez Ortiz contributed to this report.
This story was originally published November 7, 2022 at 10:54 AM.
