What to expect in Miami 2025 politics: Carollo bros, ex-city manager could run for office
.jpg "Former Miami City Commissioner Frank Carollo (left) and his older brother, current Miami City Commissioner Joe Carollo, could both run for office again next year. Frank Carollo is considering a run for the District 3 seat that will be vacated by his brother, who must leave because of term limits. Joe Carollo hasn’t ruled out the possibility of making another run for mayor.")
The city of Miami could either see a political shakeup in 2025 — or a revival of the old guard.
For the first time in eight years, Miami residents will elect a new mayor. They will also vote on at least two — but possibly three — City Commission seats. That could mean a major shift in the political dynamics of a city where just three votes on the five-member commission constitute a majority. Voters appeared ready for a change last year, when Miamians voted in two candidates who ran on reform platforms, Miguel Angel Gabela and Damian Pardo.
But in a town where members of political dynasties tend to cycle through elected office like a revolving door, multiple open seats aren’t necessarily a harbinger for change.
“I think one of the open questions now is, are voters going to continue down that path of reform and try and make the city work more for their interests, or are they going to throw their hands up and just continue rubber-stamping these dynastic politicians and the progeny of dynastic politicians and, you know, continue making the city of Miami a punchline?” said Miami pollster Fernand Amandi.
Here’s what we know so far about the year ahead in Miami politics.
Mayoral race
After serving eight years, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez will be termed out at the end of 2025. That means for the first time in nearly a decade, the city will have a new representative in the ceremonial part-time position.
Some familiar faces are considering succeeding him.
Current Miami City Commissioner Manolo Reyes has already announced that he plans to run for mayor next year. He has not officially filed for the race yet.
Former City Manager Emilio González — who resigned from his role as the city’s top administrator in January 2020 — left the door open to the possibility of running, saying he’s “honored by the overwhelming encouragement and support I’ve received regarding a potential mayoral candidacy.”
“People are tired of the same names, same politics, same outcomes. I deeply care about Miami’s future: Miami isn’t just where I’ve served — it’s where our family has built our life and our future,” Gonzalez said in a statement. “... For now, I’m focused on my family and my job. When there’s news to share about 2025... our Miami community will be the first to hear!”
For months, political insiders have chattered about the possibility of two candidates who previously faced off in 1997 returning to the ballot: City Commissioner Joe Carollo and Xavier Suarez, who is the father of the current mayor and himself was the first Cuban-born mayor in Miami, serving from 1985 to 1993 and again from to 1997 to 1998. Carollo also served as mayor between 1996 and 1997 and again from 1998 to 2001.
Despite those rumors, neither political powerhouse has indicated on the record that they intend to run.
“As you may have read, I am under a permanent injunction not to run for anything and it can only be waived by my wife,” the elder Suarez joked in a text message Friday.
And Carollo, whose District 3 commission term ends next year, has continued to leave the door open for the past few months about his intention to run for mayor again.
“My intentions are to go to Shangri-La,” Carollo said Friday when asked about his plans for next year. Then he added: “If God has other plans for me, I’ll see if, you know, he reveals them to me.”
Another familiar face has also weighed a return to office: Alex Díaz de la Portilla, who was cleared of money laundering and bribery charges last month when the Broward State Attorney’s Office dropped them.
Díaz de la Portilla previously told the Herald in September that he was weighing a run for mayor, as well as one of the open City Commission seats. But in a statement Friday, the former District 1 commissioner appeared to have narrowed his focus.
“I will be the next Mayor of my city,” Díaz de la Portilla said.
So far, only three candidates have officially filed to run for the mayoral race: Maxwell Martinez, Michael Hepburn and June Savage.
Open City Commission seats
At least two, but possibly three, City Commission seats will be open in next year’s election.
The District 3 seat currently held by Carollo will be vacated due to term limits. While no candidates have formally filed to run in that race, a few are considering throwing their hats in the ring.
Former District 3 City Commissioner Frank Carollo, the younger brother of Joe Carollo, is among that group.
He said in a statement to the Herald that, “although I am presently not a candidate, I have been observing.”
Frank Carollo added that the possibility of returning to office in District 3 and focusing on life-safety issues, like completing the construction of two additional Fire-Rescue stations, “is very enticing to me.”
“However, as recent past election results have demonstrated that the first few candidates to announce and file are not necessarily the winners, and with the qualification period being September 2025,” he said, “I should make an announcement next year, around the time my daughter finishes the school year.”
Frank Carollo could face opposition from Alfie Leon, an attorney who lost to Joe Carollo by about 250 votes in 2017.
“It’s been humbling to receive so much encouragement to run for office to serve the community I love. So many are tired and done with the culture of chaos and I’m ready to bring purposeful leadership to city hall,” Leon said in a statement. “Over the next few weeks I’ll be with family, friends and neighbors reflecting on the path forward and prepare a final announcement in the new year.”
The District 5 seat will also be open, with Commissioner Christine King finishing out her first term next year.
Asked whether she intends to run for reelection next year or if she’s considering a run for mayor, King’s spokesperson said that, “at this this time there’s no comment.”
One candidate has filed to run for the race: Marion Brown, who owns a construction business that specializes in work at landfills.
In addition, the District 4 seat — currently occupied by Reyes — will be open if the commissioner officially files to run for mayor. Under Florida’s resign-to-run law, Reyes would need to forfeit his current seat despite being just halfway through his term.
This story was originally published December 23, 2024 at 5:00 AM.
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