Floridians flattened the COVID curve. Then, amid upbeat talk, the numbers began to rise

In January, DOH data show a smattering of people were already getting sick, though the symptoms weren’t originally recognized as COVID-19 because of a lack of testing.

“The first few generations are really hard to see, particularly with a disease that presents like a flu,” said Eric Toner, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “I think it’s safe to assume, as we have all along, that the major travel hubs or travel destinations were probably seeded in January.”

As the calendar turned to February, the virus was spreading throughout Florida. Throughout the course of the month, nearly 200 people started showing symptoms that would eventually be identified through testing as COVID-19.

According to a Herald analysis of DOH public data, one out of four people getting sick had not traveled and had no known contact with another person who was ill — meaning the disease was spreading in the state uncontrolled.

While testing was so rare that confirmation wasn’t possible in February, the state was aware of hundreds of potential cases, according to internal memos obtained by the Herald. (1) That information was not shared with the public or even local governments and hospitals, which were begging for guidance. (2)

Floridians continued on with their lives, largely unaware of the risks. Many municipalities allowed spring break and other parties to go forward. (3)

On March 1, when Florida publicly confirmed its first cases, DOH data show more than 70 people fell ill. (Those are only the patients who eventually tested positive for COVID-19.)

With no vaccine or therapy for the new disease, epidemiologists knew the virus would spread widely. The question became how fast that would happen.

If everyone got COVID-19 at once, a graph of cases by day would show a steep upward trajectory. A steep curve would mean rapid spread, which could overwhelm hospitals, a disaster that struck Italy in March. Slowing the spread — through social distancing or emergency closures — to avoid a precipitous spike became the best-case scenario.

DeSantis declared a state of emergency on March 9, allowing him to call out the National Guard, purchase medical supplies more swiftly and establish field hospitals, but he did not shut down the state. (4)

By then, new cases were exploding across Florida. Still, DeSantis denied that COVID-19 had taken a foothold, saying there was no “community spread” of the virus in Florida.

The governor was contradicted the next day by Dr. Anthony Fauci, widely considered the federal government’s top expert on infectious disease. (5)

As the state continued to delay extreme action, some local governments implemented emergency measures. Miami-Dade County closed all nonessential businesses on March 19, then issued a safer-at-home order a week later, on March 26. (6,7)

Floridians seem to have acted even faster on their own, possibly reacting to federal guidelines that suggested social distancing and working from home. By mid-March, residents had already started staying home, the Tampa Bay Times found by analyzing cellphone mobility data. (8)

Experts say it takes up to two weeks to see the impact a policy has on “the curve.” That’s because it can take that long for a person to start feeling sick after exposure to the virus. People falling ill within the first week after a policy change likely contracted the virus before the change went into effect.

Under pressure for not acting sooner, DeSantis issued a statewide safer-at-home order on April 1. The effect of that policy would not be reflected in the data for up to two weeks, experts say. (9)

Around that same time, new cases peaked and began leveling off, data show.

Two to three weeks after Floridians started staying home and local governments started closing businesses, the rate of new infections in Florida had slowed. The curve of new cases began to level off, the data show. Social distancing and business closures were working.

By mid-April, new cases across the state were down significantly. Hospitals had not been overrun. The spike in flu-like illnesses evened out.

Although the disease claimed hundreds of Floridians per week, with the effects especially dire in nursing homes, the count was significantly less than in New York and some other northeastern states. The curve was flattening — but so was the economy.

Emboldened by President Donald Trump, a close ally, and encouraged by business leaders, DeSantis began to talk about reopening. (10)

“We need to be ready to get back to work,” he said.