Florida may experience coronavirus resurgence if reopened before mid-June, data shows
Floridians, get comfy — you might not be going anywhere until mid-June.
State officials could jeopardize their constituents’ safety if they relaxed social distancing before June 14, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington reported Wednesday. Even then, the target date is only viable with certain “containment strategies that include testing, contact tracing, isolation, and limiting gathering size” in place.
Analyzing the government-mandated social distancing measures’ impact on COVID-19 deaths led researchers to their mid-June projection. Their timeline is based on a complex estimate that is known as R0, pronounced R-naught, which is the estimated number of new infections projected to stem from a single case, also known as the basic reproductive number.
If the R0 falls below 1, then it’s estimated the number of new cases is shrinking, allowing governments to open up their societies.
If the R0 goes above 1, then it’s estimated the number of new cases is growing, which could lead to government lockdowns being re-instituted.
This projection, arrived at from complex models, comes just days after Gov. Ron DeSantis assembled a team, which included the mayors of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties — the three counties hit hardest in the state — that will focus on how to safely reopen Florida.
The task force also includes executives of Disney, Publix, Universal and other large Florida companies and includes only one medical professional, Tampa General Hospital CEO John Couris, according to ClickOrlando.com.
Also absent from the task force: Department of Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, the only Democrat in DeSantis’ cabinet. The state’s other two cabinet members — CFO Jimmy Patronis and Attorney General Ashley Moody, both Republican — are on the task force.
Speaking to CNN Thursday, IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray warned states against rushing to ease restrictions.
“If people start to go back to normal social interaction or even progressively go back, the risk of transmission will go up ... and then you go back to the sort of exponential rise that was happening before we put in social distancing,” Murray told the cable network. “The risk is very great for resurgence from these early openings.”
As of Thursday evening, Florida has 29,648 reported coronavirus cases and nearly 1,000 deaths. Miami-Dade County had 10,588 cases, the most of any of the state’s 67 counties.
This story was originally published April 24, 2020 at 6:00 AM.
