Inventory shrinking across South Florida just as the summer home-selling season begins
Two new studies quantify early signs of COVID-19’s impact on South Florida real estate — right at the start of the summer selling season.
A new study by online listings site Zillow shows a sharp drop in new residential listings. A separate study, by Douglas Elliman in conjunction with the appraisal firm Miller Samuel, shows a retraction in luxury inventory.
According to Zillow, the Miami metro area — which includes Broward, Dade and Palm Beach counties — experienced a drop of 30.7% in new residential listings. The study compared the number of new listings of condos and single-family homes from Mar. 1 to Apr. 5 for the nation’s 35 most populous metros.
Zillow ranked the 14 metro areas with the most significant drops; Miami ranked sixth.
“We’ve seen a big change for sure. Inventory drives our market. What influenced it is fear,” said Nicole Miller, a Coral Springs broker associate with Keller Williams Realty.
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Cities with the most significant drops were Detroit (61.8%), Pittsburgh (55.5%) and New York (49.1%), followed by Philadelphia (42.6%) and San Francisco (38%).
Those with the least decline were Las Vegas (12.2%), Portland (12.8%) and Baltimore (16.8%).
The drop is temporary, said Ron Shuffield, chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices EWM Realty. He said, “We have a higher drop than other cities because we have a higher percentage of multifamily units than some cities, like Indianapolis.”
As of mid-April, about 70% of inventory shown on the multiple listing service are condos, Shuffield said.
Timing of stay-at-home and social distancing directives influenced the number of listings, said Zillow economist Jeff Tucker.
Still, some South Florida homeowners are listing their residences, said Miller.
Homes and condos that are unoccupied are more likely to go on the market, she said. “If the home is vacant,” she said, “then they list it.
“It’s also people who have an imminent need, such as moving to the area for a job,” she said.
Shuffield predicts a rebound before summer’s end. After 60 to 90 days, Shuffield said, “there will be a surge in new listings when this passes.”
Regardless, said Zillow’s Tucker, he expects fewer sales than usual come late spring and summer.
LUXURY
Inventory is also down in some of Miami’s toniest neighborhoods, according to Douglas Elliman.
The number of condos and single-family homes priced over $1 million dropped in Aventura, Brickell, Coconut Grove, Coral Gables, downtown Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Miami Beach, Palmetto Bay, Pinecrest and South Miami, according to the Douglas Elliman first quarter Florida Sales Market report. The study compared the number of act
Some neighborhoods saw a decrease in listings for both condos and single-family homes, while others saw a decrease in only one housing type.
“We got a little further into the quarter and had the ability to show more homes compared to other cities, like New York, that enforced self-isolation sooner,” said Jay Phillip Parker, chief executive officer of Douglas Elliman Florida Brockerage. “But [during March], what you saw in most markets was the decrease in inventory.”
In some cases, social distancing rules made visiting homes impossible; in others, sellers became fearful of having visitors in their homes, Parker said.
“The biggest problem is how do you do business in this market? That’s being answered through technology” — such as virtual tours and FaceTime.
But because the study covered the entire first quarter, it may not fully reflect conditions. “The late second quarter will paint a more defined picture of the impact of these times,” Parker said.
Inventory in the luxury market fluctuated as follows by area:
▪ Miami Beach:
Condo inventory rose by 12.2%, to 1,129 units
Single-family residences decreased by 19.1% to 169 homes
▪ Miami Coastal Mainland, which includes Aventura, Brickell, Coconut Grove, downtown Miami, Pinecrest and South Miami:
Condo inventory fell by 19.8% to 2,212 units
Single-family residences dropped by 24.4% to 925 homes
▪ Fort Lauderdale:
Condo inventory dwindled by 2.6% to 339 units
Single-family residences declined by 25.3% to 296 homes
This story was originally published April 16, 2020 at 7:00 AM.
