Cote: Miami Heat needs Giannis to save it from a slide to irrelevance | Opinion
This deep into the NBA playoffs offers a measuring stick for teams willing to wonder why they’re on the couch watching. It’s when teams like Miami see Oklahoma City and San Antonio vie for who out West might be the league’s next dynasty while New York and Cleveland decide the top of the East as Detroit and Boston still reel from what in hell happened to them.
The Heat thinking it was close enough, a tweak away, is what has had Miami mired in play-in purgatory the past four seasons — a championship-pedigreed franchise listing toward irrelevance. That, along with failing to swing a major deal to make things better. Adding a Norman Powell is a nice sharp single into the gap. This club needs a home run, dare say a grand slam, if it is to once again contend for a fourth franchise championship and first since 2013.
Now, at least Pat Riley & Co. are openly admitting their desperation, their need to make a seismic move, in reportedly targeting a blockbuster trade for Milwaukee superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo — a desire still officially unofficial even though everybody knows it. Even though the Bucks admit they’re listening to offers, and even though Riley has stated every player on the roster except Bam Adebayo is trade bait for just the right whale.
The Heat openly disdains tanking to hunt for a quick fix in the draft, so it’s trades or free agency (and youth development) left as answers.
Getting Antetokounmpo would be Miami’s biggest score since it landed LeBron James in 2010. Easy to forget now, as LeBron is still active and weighing his future at age 41, that he was at the early apex of his prime when he joined the Heat at 25. Miami hoped he would play 10 years in the 3-0-5. He played four.
Antetokounmpo is different. He is not without risk or the perfect answer ... just the best one out there this coming offseason.
The “Greek Freak” is 6-11 with a massive 7-3 wingspan, a two-time MVP. As next-gen stars such as Victor Wembanyama and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vie on the West finals stage to be the new face of the league, Antetokounmpo is still in that mix.
Unlike LeBron in 2010, though, Antetokounmpo is 31. Injuries limited him to 36 games last season and various ailments have dogged him off and on the past few years. These factors make it fair to wonder if he might be entering the tail end of his prime. For certain, Miami would be in win-now mode if it pulls off this trade — still far from a given. It would be maybe a two- or three-year championship window.
The competition for Antetokounmpo will be fierce, driving up the price, and the next-team betting odds are various and ever-changing. DraftKings has him re-signing with Milwaukee the favorite at +125, a trade to Boston next at +400 and Miami third at +700. Oddsshark.com has Heat out front at +270, staying with Bucks at +300, and Celtics at +700. But a dozen other teams might be in the running.
Miami’s offer must include outgoing salaries to match Antetokounmpo’s $58.4 million, and enough quality players and draft capital to wow the Bucks, whose co-owner Jimmy Haslam says he hopes a trade, if one is made, will come prior to the June 23-24 NBA Draft.
The Heat has the financial wherewithal to likely re-sign its own top pending free agent, Powell, and still be in play for Antetokounmpo.
Miami’s offer would be expected to include Tyler Herro (a Milwaukee native), Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., multiple first-round picks and pick swaps. The first-round picks would include Miami’s 13th overall this summer as well as unprotected first-rounders in 2031 and ‘33. Andrew Wiggins and Nikola Jovic have been other players mentioned as possibly being included in a deal perhaps instead of Jaquez.
Herro, Ware and the three first-rounders would likely be the starting point must-haves for Milwaukee. Herro has been an all-star and still is only 26. Ware is a 7-footer with high upside. Miami would be giving up a lot, and it still might not be enough.
Giannis on the trading block and LeBron an unrestricted free agent are the two players atop the league’s offseason marquee, and the latest reasons why NBA offseasons are usually the most interesting in sports.
“I’m still in the moment of just taking my time,” James said this week on his Mind the Game podcast. “I haven’t even really thought about it too much. Obviously, I understand that I’m a free agent and I can control my own destiny — being here [with the Lakers] for a foreseeable future or if it’s going somewhere else.”
Wait. Haven’t really thought about it too much? You’re 41. Haven’t you been thinking about it for, like, five years!?
“But like, I haven’t even really even got to that point,” James went on. “I haven’t even taken my family vacation yet, which is going to happen after Memorial Day. That’s kind of the thing at the forefront of my mind. But I think at some point in June, late June, as July rolls around, free agency starts to get going and as July rolls around and maybe into August, we start to kind of get a feel of what my future may look like.”
What I’m hearing is, if he gets just the right offer to land someplace where he might get one last shot at a ring, he will take it. If he doesn’t, he will think harder about retiring.
The betting odds say LeBron is most likely to re-sign with the Lakers or retire, and next most likely to return for a homecoming/farewell in Cleveland.
Miami’s is nowhere near the top of the LeBron “next-team” odds. Although if the Heat swing and miss (again) on Antetokounmpo, who’s to say Pat Riley won’t be desperate enough to enact a quick fence-mend, swallow some pride and give LeBron a call. After all, James’ best days (or at least most championships) were in Miami.
LeBron 2.0 here seems a pipe dream. Wouldn’t bet on it. Finally nailing a trade for Antetokounmpo — which Miami thought it had before the trade deadline a few months ago -- is a better bet but still far from certain.
The alternative if it’s another miss on Antetokounmpo might lead Miami to a lesser deal; Ja Morant, anyone? Or it could simply mean the Heat sticks with its Adebayo/Herro core, counts on an improved Ware-led youth wave, and banks on the magic of Erik Spoelstra’s coaching and Heat culture ... the very stuff that has seen the Heat mired in play-in territory four straight years.
For Miami, It’s pretty much all-in and Giannis or bust — the possible risk not as great as the potential reward for a team desperate enough.
