Cote: Miami Dolphins will be better than you think in ‘26. Here’s why | Opinion
In case you thought this whole ”rebuilding” thing was part of a bad dream or perhaps a concoction of the negative media, the Miami Dolphins apparently will go 1-16 this coming season, the worst record in the franchise’s 61 years.
This is according to initial game-by-game betting odds with the NFL schedule now out. The Fins as of today are favored in exactly one game: Week 12 at home vs. the New York Jets. And even that one shows Miami only a negligible 1 1/2-point favorite, half of the typical three points given for home-field advantage.
For perspective, elsewhere in the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills are favored in 15 games, the New England Patriots in nine and the lowly Jets in four.
Miami’s existing franchise-worst season was 1-15 in 2007 (before the league expanded by one game). Two names are all you need to recall that season, although with the help of therapy you’ve probably tried to forget them: Cam Cameron and Cleo Lemon, the one-year blunder of a head coach and the quarterback with the unfortunately fitting nickname.
Should the Dolphins meet their subterranean expectations this year and actually succeed in failing to that degree, the grand consolation prize could be the overall No. 1 draft pick and a 2027 jackpot like expected top pick Arch Manning, the Texas quarterback.
Such is the coming season’s narrative as the reboot unfurls under new coach Jeff Hafley and general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan. Fans seem torn as indicated by my recent online poll. I asked, “What do you hope the Miami Dolphins do in 2026?” Gave you two choices. You said: 56% for “Be as bad as expected & vie for No. 1 pick,” and 44% for “Shock the world, exceed expectations and challenge for playoffs.”
Probably ought to rule out the playoffs right now. (Sorry 44 percenters.) The Bills and Pats being clearly better, the NFL’s second-toughest schedule and the aforementioned team starting over makes Miami in the postseason about as likely you winning the Powerball lottery and then being struck by lightning en route to picking up your check.
The No. 1 overall draft pick is hugely more likely. Presently, only Arizona at +240 beats Miami’s +400 as the betting favorite for fewest wins, with the Jets and Raiders (Miami’s season-opening foe) close behind.
But here’s the problem with assuming the Dolphins will be as bad as expected:
Does Miami have both boots in the reboot? Or is this more of a half-in, half-out rebuild?
I look at the Dolphins’ postdraft roster and a few things seem clear to me:
First, it is a crazy the Fins are underdogs in 16 of 17 games. Even the betting over/under of 4 1/2 wins (tied with Arizona for fewest in the NFL) seem low to me — a tempting go on the ‘over.’
Odd as it may seem as relates to getting that No. 1 pick or close to it, I am concerned the Dolphins will be too good to be real bad. Not good enough for the playoffs, but too good to get their franchise QB. Stuck on no-man’s land.
Why?
Because there are a few mixed signals on this wholesale rebuild.
Just on offense, they went after and signed the offseason’s prized free agent QB in Malik Willis. They gave rising-star running back De’Von Achane a lucrative contract extension. And, with recent top pick Kadyn Proctor added, three of five offensive line starters figure to be quite good. Yes, the wide receivers room is weak with the trade of Jaylen Waddle for picks — now that was a full-in rebuild move — but the offense should be at least OK.
Defensively, the secondary is a potential glaring problem, a big deal. They will need somebody — maybe late first-round cornerback Chris Johnson — to step up fast. Still, there is talent on D, including 2026 NFL tackles leader Jordyn Brooks, Chop Robinson, Zach Sieler and Jordan Phillips.
More reasons to think Miami might be better than expected? A recent draft that led the NFL in total picks (13) and succeeded in hitting all the problem areas. And a first-time head coach and GM from a winning Green Bay program who are out to prove themselves and want zero to do with tanking for a ‘27 top pick.
If you’ve been disappointed by all the gloomy talk about Miami’s 2026 outlook and needed some good news ... you’re welcome.
If you’ve been counting on enough losses to add up to No. 1 in ‘27 ... I’m sorry.
