Rotation set, lineup improved, excuses gone. Time for Miami Marlins’ rebuild to show results | Opinion
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Road to Reconstruction
The Miami marlins entered the offseason with the goal of improving their offense. They made additions, but will they be enough to push them into playoff contention?
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Charlie Hough should never have made it all the way from Hialeah High to the pitcher’s mound for that very first Marlins Opening Day in 1993.
He was 45 by then and near the end of a long career in MLB, but it had nearly ended decades earlier as he floundered in the Dodgers farm system, fastball gone, arm shot. That’s when a minor-league assistant coach named Goldie Holt asked a question.
“It was fluke,” Hough, now 74, once recalled. “My whole career was based on one guy going, ‘Have you ever tried to throw a knuckleball?’ ”
He learned how in 10 minutes.
On April 5, 1993, that knuckler would christen a franchise, his historic first pitch stitching the air for a generously called strike in a 6-3 win over the Dodgers, and Marlins baseball was born.
The club has enjoyed a notable tradition of pitching as the Florida-turned-Miami Marlins mark their 30th Opening Day this Friday in San Francisco.
From Hough’s knuckleball to the tragic 2016 end for budding superstar Jose Fernandez and beyond, the Marlins have had 10 different starting pitchers make 14 All-Star Game appearances, Kevin Brown, Dontrelle Willis and Josh Johnson to name but a few.
But this is different, and beyond.
The Marlins’ four-year, ground-up rebuild has strongly emphasized starting pitching, and it is payday.
It better be.
It is time for owner Bruce Sherman’s faith in the plan and for Marlins fans’ patience to be rewarded.
“I think we can win,” says manager Don Mattingly. “I think that’s the key. I think we believe we can win. Now we’ve got to go prove it.”
The arms will lead the way. This looks like the best, deepest starting rotation in club history.
But, yes, there are doubters. MLB.com just listed its top 10 rotations for 2022. The National League East-rival Mets (No. 1), Braves (No. 8) and Phillies (No. 10) all made it from what should be a rugged division. The Marlins did not, but were one of five honorable mentions.
“The Marlins of Sandy Alcantara, 2021 Rookie of the Year runner-up Trevor Rogers, Pablo Lopez and other rising young guns are knocking on the door of the top 10,” wrote the website.
The ace Alcantara already has been an All-Star. Rogers was last year. Lopez averaged more than a strikeout per inning. The typically light-spending Fish lavished a five-year, $56 million deal late last year to lock up Alcantara long term. Fourth and fifth starters Elieser Hernandez and Jesus Luzardo brim with potential after getting a brief taste last year.
And behind the starting five, waiting, are four more starters all ranked among MLB’s top 100 prospects: Edward Cabrera, Max Meyer, Eury Perez and Sixto Sanchez. All but Perez are in Triple A and might be close.
Miami now has the sixth-rated farm system overall, best in the division with shortstop prospect Khalil Watson and outfielder JJ Bleday joining the four starters in the top 100.
Still, Fangraphs.com’s computerized projections peg Miami fourth in the NL East with 81.7 wins (just over .500) and a 29.1 percent playoff likelihood. That’s on the heels of a disappointing 67-95 record last year to follow a playoff spot in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.
Can the Marlins exceed the expected improvement and make a run at the postseason? Yes. Having one or two teams among the Braves, Mets and Phillies underperform would help. Even with no such luck, it’s a fresh start, Derek Jeter is in the rearview mirror, and here are our top five factors that can make a playoff team of the Marlins:
▪ 1. Starting pitching. Well, no duh: Miami was 31-18 last year when it got a quality start, with Alcantara accounting for most of those off an MLB-high 33 starts. That’s a pretty fair sample size to suggest strong starting pitching can overcome a lot, even, to a degree, inferior run production.
With good health (Lopez missed a chunk of 2021), this starting five and the poised-and-waiting arms in Triple A portend a solid rotation for years, with nobody older than 26.
▪ 2. New bats = improved run production: I mean, give your pitchers a break, will you Marlins? Alcantara’s 9-15 record last season was a crime. Miami was next-to-last among 14 NL teams averaging 3.85 runs per game. The 158 homers were third fewest and the .233 team average tied for last.
Miami smartly emphasized adding bats in free agency, and those included outfielders Avisail Garcia (29 homers last year) and Jorge Soler (27); an All-Star versatile infielder in Joey Wendle; and solid catcher in Jacob Stallings at a position of need. Soler was World Series MVP last year.
▪ 3. Jazz Chisholm: His personality is as colorful as his first name. Now, at 24, can he make the leap to stardom that Miami hoped for when it traded for Arizona’s No. 1 prospect in 2019, giving up highly regarded pitching prospect Zac Gallen?
Chisholm can steal bases and has some power (18 homers last year) but was inconsistent and batted only .248. A breakout season by the young second baseman would be huge for the lineup. There is also big fab-favorite potential to see blossom.
Said Mattingly: “We need Jazz to be an every-day, we-know-what-we’re-going to-get guy.”
▪ 4. The bullpen: Because the complete game is all but extinct (Miami had one all last year) even a strong rotation needs help finishing the job. But the Miami bullpen is in flux because closer Dylan Floro continues to suffer from arm soreness that will see him on the injured list Opening Day.
The Fish smartly targeted the situation in Sunday’s trade with Baltimore for relievers Cole Sulser and Tanner Scott in exchange for a draft pick, two lesser prospects and a player to be named. Sulser looks like an especially nice get; he had been pegged as the Orioles closer and can slide in, along with Anthony Bender, as a likely fill-in for Floro.
The Marlins pen ranked seventh in MLB with a 3.81 ERA last year but Floro had six blown saves against 15 saves, a ratio the club would like to see improve when he’s healthy again. The starters’ youthfulness and in some cases inexperience make a reliable bullpen all the more essential.
▪ 5. Little stuff that isn’t so little: Beat good teams, for starters. Miami was 19-38 last year vs. playoff teams, and begins this season with 18 of the first 24 games against teams with winning records last year.
Be better on the road, too. Marlins’ 25-56 away record was fourth-worst in baseball.
And how about: Defense! Miami was last in the bigs in 2021 with 122 errors and a .979 fielding percentage. Speaking of D, is converted center fielder Jesus Sanchez the answer at a pretty important position? If not, might want to put a rush on the call-up for the top prospect Bleday.
For Miami, though everything starts with the starters, with the rotation.
This is the year the rebuild must show results. Make it .500 or better, or bust. Make it a run at the playoffs ‘til the end, or call it disappointing. No excuses.
The franchise has stacked its chips on starting pitching and is all in.
Time to deal.
This story was originally published April 6, 2022 at 7:00 AM.
