NFL Week 10 picks, starring Tua vs. Herbert, Seahawks-Bills, 2 big upsets and the rest | Opinion
GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 10 PICKS
DOLPHINS THIS WEEK
CHARGERS (2-6) at DOLPHINS (5-3)
Line: MIA by 2 1/2.
Cote’s pick: MIA 31-24.
TV: 4:05 p.m., CBS.
They won’t meet often but their careers will forever be linked and compared, and it starts Sunday at Hard Rock: Tua Tagovailoa vs. Justin Herbert. Along with Cincy’s Joe Burrow these are the high-drafted rookie quarterbacks in a race to see who’ll be best and who’ll lift his team highest. So far so good for the two men drafted fifth overall (Herbert) and sixth (Tagovailoa). Miami’s golden Samoan has impressed in his two starts and kept the Dolphins hot. Herbert holds the inside lane for rookie of the year despite the Chargers’ tough-luck season. This is only the second time all year Miami has been a betting favorite; it’s been tough for Joe Public to accept that the long-downtrodden Fins suddenly are, like, good. Scoring a lot and defending strong — and doing both better than the Chargers do ether. MIA is ahead of expectations on its rebuild in a way that should have Brian Flores climbing the coach of the year charts. Be wary of the Bolts, though, despite their record. All six LAC losses have been by less than seven points. They are a couple of bounces and a bit of luck from being in the same 5-3 neighborhood as Miami. Fins (and Tagovailoa) will miss injured WR Preston Williams but will catch a break if Chargers DE Joey Bosa (concussion) remains out. This game is high-risk for a loss if Miami struts in all full of itself and expecting an easy time, but Flores has this team better-coached than that. The Miami bandwagon is getting crowded and picking up speed. Now is not the time to jump off.
GAME OF THE WEEK
BILLS (7-2) at CARDINALS (5-3)
Line: ARI by 1.
Cote’s pick: ARI 37-27.
TV: 4:05 p.m., CBS.
Slim pickins’ for the Game of the Week committee (only Seahawks-Rams challenged), but it’s tough to overlook an expected pointfest shootout by two long-time losing franchises suddenly playoff-good behind the emergence of young-star QBs Josh Allen (blessed by the addition of Stefon Diggs) and Kyler Murray. Buffs impressed in beating Seattle last week while ‘Zona was stumbling against Miami. There are two good offenses in play here but only one stout defense, and it belongs to the Cardinals. Allen won’t have it nearly as easy as the Seahawks’ plain awful D made it for him last week. Allen and Murray both are dual threats, but Murray is the master at it with 543 rushing yards, a 7.1 average and eight TDs, all NFL bests for a QB. No result would surprise in a near-pick ‘em game, but I’m liking the home team with the much better defense, fueled by a huge day for Murray both in air and on ground.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
WASHINGTON (2-6) at LIONS (3-5)
Line: DET by 3 1/2.
Cote’s pick: WAS 20-17.
TV: 1 p.m.;, Fox.
“AAAWWWK!” serenades the Upset Bird. “Welcome back, Alex Smith. Alex Smaawwk!” Washington QB Alex Smaawwk I mean Smith makes his first start in two years — since that gruesome leg injury on Nov. 18, 2018. I’m feeling Smith stars in a feelgood story Sunday, quite literally inspiring an upset win. Matthew Stafford passed concussion protocol and will play, but he may be missing top WR Kenny Golladay again. And Washers’ pass defense is quite good. The No-Names are still playing hard, and watch them push Motown coach Matt Patricia a step closer to the firing line. “The firing Lion is what you mean,” adds U-Bird. “Matt Patraawwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 10:
@Browns (5-3, -3 1/2) over Texans (2-6), 27-24: Surprisingly tough pick for me because Deshaun Watson makes Texans a dangerous bad team, and I’m still not sold on Browns. Cleveland is off a bye, on a 7-2 run at home, and expects RB Nick Chubb back from injury — and Houston’s run D is Charmin soft. Still, Texans have won five in a row in series. Give us that half-point and a cover.
@Packers (6-2, -13) over Jaguars (1-7), 45-16: Here is one of those rare NFL matchups where there is next to zero hesitation on who wins, and when even a big point spread seems an easy choice. A Jake Luton-led Jax win might be the upset of the year. Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and Aaron Jones should have their fantasy owners popping champagne against this Jags defense.
Eagles (3-4-1, -3 1/2) over @Giants (2-7), 23-20: Philly has won past two and staked claim as clearly best team in the miserable NFC Least. Birds have beaten NYG eight in a row and like ‘em here coming off a bye. Medium upset shot, though. Giants are still fighting. Since 0-3 start they’ve won twice and had four losses by one score. So I’ll hedge this bet and put that half-point on a G-Men cover.
Buccaneers (6-3, -5 1/2) over @Panthers (3-6), 34-26: Tom Brady had a meltdown in the 38-3 Sunday night loss to Saints that marked the worst defeat of his career, stamped by his own three interceptions. This NFC South rivalry has been back-and-forth over the years, but Carolina comes into this one on a four-game losing streak, and with RB Christian McCaffrey (shoulder) very doubtful. Watch Mr. Brady bounce back big in a shootout.
@Raiders (5-3, -4 1/2) over Broncos (3-5), 24-17: Teams split last year in what tends to be a close series, but give us Vegas at home, with Derek Carr and Josh Jacobs delivering to Team Chucky a bit more offensive pop than Broncos usually muster. Also see Denver on a 2-14 road skid against teams with winning records.
Seahawks (6-2, +1) over @Rams (5-3), 30-27: Upset! If you insist. (Doesn’t feel like one). Seattle’s two losses in past three games have underlined that Seahawks are half great — the Russell Wilson/offense half. The once-great D stinks. That’s why Rams, off a bye and on 4-1 series run, are the narrowest of home favorites. But LAR has benefited from soft schedule including 4-0 vs. NFC Least. With ‘Hawks hoping to have RB Chris Carson back, trust Russ to find a way.
@Saints (6-2, -10) over 49ers (4-5), 41-17: N’Awlins is NFL’s hottest team not based in Pittsburgh, on a 5W streak including that absolute crush of Tom Brady’s Bucs last week. Drew Brees is great as ever at 41, and his defense is top-notch. Saints are an under-radar Super Bowl contender. At a glance the double-digit bet-line seems a diss to San Fran, but that’s untl you consider the 49ers’ massive injury toll on both sides of the ball. Healthy, SF has a big shot. As is, Niners will be overmatched and ovewhelmed.
@Steelers (8-0, -7 1/2) over Bengals (2-5-1), 30-20: Backup QB Mason Rudolph is on call for the NFL’s lone unbeaten team, with Ben Roethlisberger in COVID isolation due to a close contact. He still could be activated Saturday and play Sunday, but the situation is a problem from a betting standpoint. Steelers past three wins all have been close. Cincy is coming off a bye after a nice win over Tennessee. That makes ‘Gals-to-cover very tempting. But Pitt has won 10 straight in this series, Cincy has a bad defebnse and is on an 0-15-1 skid on the road, and there’s still a good shot Big Ben plays.
Ravens (6-2, -7 1/2) over @Patriots (3-5), 24-13: Man, this looked like a great prime time matchup! Then Tom Brady left, and New England crashed from dynasty to just another team. Pats barely beat winless Jets last Monday to end a four-game skid. Baltimore has won 10 road games in a row, and its only two losses this season have been to the combined 16-1 Steelers and Chiefs. Cam Newton’s struggles figure to continue vs. the best defense he’s faced.
Vikings (3-5, -2 1/2) over @Bears (5-4), 24-20: An NFC North battle of teams headed in different directions is the less-than-scintillating matchup for Monday night. Minnesota has won two in a row and Chicago has lost three straight. Bears have beaten Vikes four in a row, but see an end to that trend. Chitown tempts as home ‘dogs but doesn’t generate much on the attack under always-under-siege Nick Foles. Hotfoot Dalvin Cook leads the way.
[Point spreads used are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook by Williams Hill as of Thursday afternoon].
Byes:
Chiefs (8-1) — KC only beat Carolina by two points last week but it’s still four consecutive wins as Patrick Mahomes takes over MVP frontrunner status. Next: At Raiders.
Cowboys (2-7) — Jerry‘s World continues to crumble under four straight L’s, although ‘Boys showed fight in five-point loss to Steelers last week. Next: At Vikings.
Falcons (3-6) — The coaching change has roused Atlanta. Win over Denver last week makes Matt Ryan and Falcs 3-1 after an 0-5 start. Next: At Saints.
Jets (0-9) — NYJ was as good as off the schneid before a blown fourth quarter lead and three-point loss to Pats put Planes back on track for 0-16. Next: At Chargers.
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
We went 10-4 straight-up last week (pretty solid in this strangest of seasons) and an OK 7-7 against the spread. Needed the Patriots to cover Monday night for a much better 8-6 ATS. Note to self: Quit betting on the disintegrating ghost of Bill Belichick’s dynasty. The highlights: Nailed our Upset of the Week with Giants beating Washington (“Aaawwwk!”). Also had a pair of ‘dogs-with-points in covers by Dolphins at Arizona and Saints at Tampa Bay. So glad you’re with us on our 30th season of picks in the Herald. Onto a big second half! [Note: Thursday night pick was Colts (5-3, +1) over @Titans (6-2), 24-20). Find that full preview and pick HERE].
Week 9: 10-4, .714 overall; 7-7, .500 vs. spread.
Season: 83-49-1, .629 overall; 66-65-2, .504 vs. spread.
Final 2019: 169-86-1, .663 overall; 129-120-7, .518 vs. spread.
Final 2018: 179-75-2, .705 overall; 145-104-7, .582 vs. spread.
