Saints-Bucs in Brees vs. Brady G.O.A.T Bowl, a big upset and Tua 2.0 | Opinion
GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 9 PICKS
DOLPHINS THIS WEEK
DOLPHINS (4-3) at CARDINALS (5-2)
Line: ARI by 4 1/2.
Cote’s pick: ARI 23-20.
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS.
This result is disproportionately all about Tua Tagovailoa. After not needing much in his first start in last week’s defense-driven home upset of the Rams (an upset I called), more will be required of the rookie quarterback Sunday in his first road start vs. a good team coming off a bye. Miami coach Brian Flores refuted the noisy speculation he was ”auditioning” Tua for a later trade in case Miami were to high-draft yet another QB in 2021, but such stuff is better quieted with results than coachspeak. Will Tagovailoa be up to hanging tough in a shootout if Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins can unlock Miami’s hugely improved D? Will Fins’ minor trade-deadline deal to acquire RB DeAndre Washington have any impact with leading rusher Myles Gaskin out injured? Both teams have three-game winning streak and comparable in most major measurements including scoring, defense and point differential. And the Cardbirds and Fins rarely meet (last in 2016), so that adds yet another layer making this one a tough call. There is little cause for Zona to be favored beyond whatever home-field advantage there is in a crowd-diminished pandemic. In what feels like a pick-’em game in which no result would surprise, I will give the slightest nod to the home team coming off a bye, but Dolphins to cover.
GAME OF THE WEEK
SAINTS (5-2) at BUCCANEERS (6-2)
Line: TB by 4.
Cote’s pick: TB 37-34.
TV: 8:20 p.m., NBC.
It is New Orleans at Tampa Bay, Saints at Bucs, a battle for first in NFC South. More than all that, of course, it is Drew Brees at Tom Brady in Sunday prime time. The G.O.A.T Bowl! It is Brady’s 561 career TD passes and Brees’ 560 in a see-sawing duel for the all-time lead. It is Tom at 43 and young pup Drew at 41 in a continuing run of excellence and defiance of age. Brees leads their all-time head-to-head meetings 4-2, including 34-23 in this year’s season opener. Brady is favored here to narrow that gap. Brady will benefit from the expected season debut of reinstated Antonio Brown, while Brees hopes but is not certain to finally have top target Michael Thomas back. No matter, both teams can score, but Tampa’s edge on defense is clear. Me? I respect Brees enough to run with that added point on the bet line and see it as a field goal difference in a must-watch game.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
GIANTS (1-7) at WASHINGTON (2-5)
Line: WAS by 2 1/2.
Cote’s pick: NYG 23-21.
TV: 1 p.m., Fox.
“AAAWWWK!” trumpets the Upset Bird. “New Yaaawwwk!” Picking the Giants to win is of course inherently dangerous, mainly because Daniel Jones is a human turnover machine, and more so with Washington coming off a bye and NYG a short week. Still, I feel oddly confident in this pick. Giants’ past three losses have been by six total points, including 25-23 to Tampa Bay on Monday night. The G-Men are playing hard for Joe Judge. Sidelights: Giants’ win in October was fourth in a row over Washington. Giants are 10-4 straight up in past 14 trips to D.C. And Washington is on a 3-13 skid at home. “If Danny Jones limits the turnovers to one we got a shot,” notes U-Bird. ”Is that too much to ask? Don’t answer that! Aaawwwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 9:
@Falcons (2-6, -3 1/2) over Broncos (3-4), 27-20: Two teams finally waking up here. Falcs are 2-1 (the loss by one point) since their coaching change, and Broncs are on 3-1 run after last week’s miracle rally past Chargers. ATL 0-4 at home but that trend ends. Matt Ryan brings more pop on offense, and Falcons’ D has been much better past month.
Seahawks (6-1, -3) over @Bills (6-2), 34-26: This matchup and Ravens-Colts battle for Game of the Week runner-up. A pair of disappointing defenses here and DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett vs. Stefon Diggs and John Brown could make for an air show and pointfest. The big difference? Josh Allen has cooled, while Russell Wilson remains MVP-caliber hot. Faith in the pick will tick up if running back Chris Carson (foot) is a go for Seattle.
@Titans (5-2, -6) over Bears (5-3), 23-16: Two shiny records have tarnished, with each team losing two consecutive games. Like Titans at home holding the get well card here. Chicago is better on D, but Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry will still score too much for Nick Foles and Bears’ weak attack to match. A Chitown cover tempts, but resist!
Ravens (5-2, -2 1/2) over @Colts (5-2), 24-21: We all know Ravens are good, even with last week’s loss to unbeaten Pitt. Indy is sneaky-good — don’t-get-the-respect-warranted good. Gamblers know it, though, and bet the line down from four. Two strong defenses vs. two can-be-erratic quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson and Philip Rivers further complicate the pick. An outright upset would only mildly surprise, but a Ravens cover looked a lot more like the gift you don’t return once the line fell below a field goal.
@Chiefs (7-1, -10 1/2) over Panthers (3-5), 37-24: Three straight L’s have taken the bloom off Carolina, but Panthers expect back fantasy stud RB Christian McCaffrey for first time since Week 2 injury. (“Very hopeful,” said coach Matt Rhule). That’s a difference-maker vs. an average opponent. Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes ain’t that.
@Vikings (2-5, -4) over Lions (3-4), 30-20: Minnesota has won five straight in this division rivalry. Make it a six-pack. Motown QB Matthew Stafford likely will be missing injured top WR Kenny Golladay. Vikes RB Dalvin cook went wild in upset over Green Bay last week and has another favorable matchup in Lions’ typically porous run defense.
Texans (1-6, -7) over @Jaguars (1-6), 34-13: Dolphins own Houston’s No. 1 draft pick next spring, so the worse Texans are, the better for Miami. Well, sorry, Fins. Be really tough for HOU to not win this one. Jax D can’t hold anybody to less than 30 points, and Jags are starting raw-green rookie QB Jake Luton because Gardner Minshew has injured thumb. Deshaun Watson has been hot past few games and should feast here.
@Chargers (2-5, even) over Raiders (4-3), 28-24: Pick-’em betting lines are rare as 10-7 games in the NFL, but here’s one. This is a gut-feel, hunch call by me. Surprised Vegas isn’t favored. Chargers keep blowing leads, but their five losses have been by 19 combined points. They have been very close vs. Chiefs, Bucs and Saints. This is not a bad team, and Bolts are way overdue to show it.
Steelers (7-0, -13 1/2) over @Cowboys (2-6), 31-10: Dallas’ downward spiral of a nightmare season is about to see it fourth starting quarterback in five weeks, from Dak Prescott to Andy Dalton to Ben DiNucci to now Garrett Gilbert or Cooper Rush. Hey, maybe reel in Troy Aikman from the TV booth? Or Roger Staubach — he looks pretty fit for 78! Cowboys are double-digit home dogs for only second time in Super Bowl era. The only thing imperiling Pittsburgh, the last unbeaten team, is a huge letdown after facing rival Ravens last week. But even that wouldn’t be enough. Dallas is an incredible 0-8 against the spread. Why stop now?
Patriots (2-5, -7 1/2) over @Jets (0-8), 19-10: The Monday night stage welcomes in a real stinker — but yet a rather delicious one! Granted, it takes a bit of Schadenfreude to fully maximize one’s viewing pleasure. Normally, Dead Man Coaching Adam Gase of the Jets would be plenty to enjoy as he pratfalls through what could be an 0-16 season. Ah, but Bill Belichick! Now we shall probe and dissect, in prime time, the public disintegration of the Patriots Dynasty in a sort of living autopsy of Belichick’s suddenly mortal facade. NYJ has lost all eight, but the Pats’ four-game losing streak seems oh so much worse. Alas, somebody gotta win.
Byes:
Bengals (2-5-1) — Gals are last in AFC North but coming off nice upset win over Tennessee. Cincy visits Miami December 6. Up next: Uh-oh. At Steelers.
Browns (5-3) — Sorry, not buying Clevers as 10-win-headed at midseason and playoff bound. Show all us doubters, Baker Mayfield. Next: Vs. Texans.
Eagles (3-4-1) — Birds are on top in the awful NFC East, off consecutive division wins over miserable Cowboys and Giants. Next for Philly: More dregs. At Giants.
Rams (5-3) — Upset loss at Miami last week hurt L.A. in tough NFC West and things aren’t getting easier. Next: Vs. Seahawks, and then at Buccaneers.
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
Went a not-OK 8-6 straight up last week. This pandemic season continues to mess with us. (I know how you feel, Belichick). Also went 8-6 against the spread, which is acceptable and a nice little rally over the previous week. Our bounceback ATS starred a bull’s-eye on our Upset of the Week with Dolphins beating Rams outright. (“Aaawwwk!”) ESPN’s experts were 0 for 10 on that one; I nailed it. Also called Denver’s outright mini-upset over the Chargers, and had three other ‘dogs-with-points in covers by Patriots, Vikings and Steelers. Glad you’re with us on our 30th season of picks in the Herald. All abooaarrd! [Note: Thursday night pick was Packers (-6) over @49ers, 27-23. Find the full preview and pick here].
Week 8: 8-6, .571 overall; 8-6, .571 vs. spread.
Season: 73-45-1, .619 overall; 59-58-2, .504 vs. spread.
Final 2019: 169-86-1, .663 overall; 129-120-7, .518 vs. spread.
Final 2018: 179-75-2, .705 overall; 145-104-7, .582 vs. spread.
This story was originally published November 5, 2020 at 2:48 PM.
