Who’s Super Bowl-bound? Where do Dolphins land? Our 2020 NFL-in-a-pandemic team rankings! | Opinion

A year ago the NFL, buoyant in robust popularity and financial health, celebrated itself and its 100th season. Today, a humbled King Sport moves nervously into football in a pandemic, planning games in mostly ghost-town-empty stadiums.

The coronavirus/COVID-19 threat pushed basketball and hockey into protective bubbles and caused half of college football to postpone or cancel playing in 2020, but the NFL — maybe boldly, perhaps unwisely — treads on into a season unlike any other.

That isn’t just because of the virus and limited if any crowds, but because interrupted offseason work and no preseason means more guesswork than usual on how teams stack up. Adding to the mystery: A tumult of change, with star players including Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, DeAndre Hopkins, Cam Newton, Todd Gurley, Jameis Winston, Stefon Diggs, Teddy Bridgewater, Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton all changing uniforms. Oh, and Gronk is off the party boat and back!

Now here I am, trying to make order of all the abnormality with my annual NFL Ranking of the 32 teams.

Can Patrick Mahomes and the champion Chiefs stake claim to a dynasty?

Who’ll fare better in The Great Parting of the G.O.A.T.s: Brady in Buccaneers pewter, or Bill Belichick and the Patriots he left, with Newton now on board?

And how soon before the Dolphins unleash top-drafted rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa?

We were solid with our 2019 rankings. Had the Chiefs No. 1 and they won it all. Six of our top 12 teams and eight of the top 14 made the playoffs. We rightly predicted Miami exceeding its betting over/under on wins.

But, presuming the season fends off the virus well enough to make it that far, who’ll reach Tampa and the 55th Super Bowl on Feb. 7, 2021?

How we set the likelihood, 1 through 32:

Super Bowl Favorites

1. Baltimore Ravens (14-2 last season, 0-1 in playoffs): Crows had best record in league last year including 12 straight wins to finish, only to fizzle badly in playoffs with a 28-12 home loss to Tennessee. A dream season led by QB Lamar Jackson’s league MVP trophy ended in shocking disappointment. Meaning no team enters this season as motivated to erase its pain. I wrote in last year’s rankings that Jackson would “skip stardom and leap straight to superstardom.” He did, as an electric pass-run threat balancing an elite defense. John Harbaugh won a Super Bowl for Baltimore in 2012. This team is better.

2. San Francisco 49ers (13-3, 2-1): I went into last season still doubting QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Oops. He led the Niners to Miami and Super Bowl 54, fashioning a nine-win improvement by a team that had gone 4-12 the year before. Helps to have a premier TE in George Kittle, plus Frans bolstered the O-line by adding disgruntled former Washington tackle Trent Williams, a major signing. And DE Nick Bosa fronts a stout D.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (12-4; 3-0): KC won it all in Miami (you’re welcome!) back in early February, before the coronavirus swept over everything, as QB Patrick Mahomes added a Super Bowl MVP trophy to the league MVP award he won season before. His reward: A contract extension with $63 million guaranteed. Mahomes has terrific weapons in WR Tyreek Hill, TE Travis Kelce and now rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Hellaire out of LSU. Chiefs are strong on defense, too. They should be No. 1 here, right? Maybe. But “Super Bowl hangover” is a thing. It’s just tough winning back to back. Been done seven times in 54 years and not since Patriots in 2003-04.

4. New Orleans Saints (13-3; 0-1): Great season ended abruptly last year in overtime playoff loss to Minnesota that had QB Drew Brees pondering retirement. But $50 million over two years convinced him otherwise. So did having weapons like elite WR Michael Thomas and dual-threat RB Alvin Kamara. N’Awlins added WR Emmanuel Sanders, too. Brees (now backed up by Jameis Winston) is as accurate and great as ever at 41 to lead maybe NFL’s most talented roster. That includes defenders like DE Cameron Jordan, OLB Demario Davis and CB Marshon Lattimore.

5. Dallas Cowboys (8-8): Says here defrocked America’s Team is poised to rise up with a big year, finally living up to its talent. Big reason is that uncharacteristically patient owner Jerry Jones finally gave the Cowboy boot to coach Jason Garrett, and ex-Packers boss Mike McCarthy is a smart upgrade. Boys have plenty on the attack led by QB Dak Prescott (now backed by Andy Dalton), RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Amari Cooper and a great O-line featuring OG Zack Martin and OT Tyron Smith. Dallas lost DT Gerald McCoy to season-ending injury but D stills looks good enough.

Playoff contenders

6. Seattle Seahawks (11-5, 1-1): Young guns Mahomes and Jackson bogart the hype, but Russell Wilson is as good and as clutch any QB in NFL. And he has quietly top-rate weapons in WRs Tyler lockett and DK Metcalf and RB Chris Carson. Seattle chose to not re-sign DE Jadeveon Clowney in a money decision, but still has plenty of pop on D led by MLB Bobby Wagner and new S Jamal Adams, the former Jet.

7. Minnesota Vikings (10-6, 1-1): QB Kirk Cousins and RB Dalvin Cook are coming off Pro Bowl years, thriving in offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak’s system, although departed WR Stefon Diggs will be missed. Defense also took some hits in free agency but still has fixtures like DE Danielle Hunter, S Harrison Smith and MLB Eric Kendricks.

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9): Tom Brady! Tom Brady! Tom Brady! Tampa Bay went from under-radar to overhyped overnight when Brady opted to leave New England — the biggest move in an NFL offseason full of them. Brady is why Tampa has fifth-best Super Bowl odds at 14-1. Seems a stretch considering Tom is 43 and coming off a mortal season that saw his Pro Bowl streak end at 10 straight. But Brady talked TE Rob Gronkowski off the retirement party boat, has elite WRs in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and added RB Leonard Founrtte after Jax cut him. Sounds like Brady just found his fountain of youth. Plus Bucs top-drafted OT Tristan Wirfs to help protect Tom’s old bones. Tampa should be better on D, too, led by OLB Shaq Barrett and OLB Lavonte David.

9. Buffalo Bills (10-6, 0-1): Bills in my top 10!? Yup. Buffs coming off club’s first 10-win year since 1999 and QB Josh Allen, off much-improved sophomore season, is poised to blossom with the gift of WR Stefon Diggs. That Buffalo spent first-round draft pick to pry Diggs from Minnesota tells you Bills are in win-now mode. Major signing. Bills also should have top-five defense led by line and CBs Tre’Davious White and (if he has much left at 32) Josh Norman.

10. Green Bay Packers (13-3, 1-1): If you doubt Aaron Rodgers is still elite at 36, that’s on you. Past two seasons he’s thrown for 8,444 yards and 51 TDs vs. six interceptions. No wonder Rodgers and others were baffled why Pack top-drafted QB Jordan Love in April instead of getting Aaron another receiver or blocking help. Oh well. He has RB Aaron Jones and WR Davante Adams to play with. Gee Bees also solid on D led by OLBs La’Darius Smith and Preston Smith.

11. Tennessee Titans (9-7, 2-1): Titans took off when Ryan Tannehill took over at QB in Game 6 last year and ex-Dolphin piloted team within one win of reaching Miami Super Bowl. Cinderella stuff, and a huge contract to keep him in place. Titans have an elite RB in Derrick Henry, and top CB Logan Ryan leads a solid D.

12. Philadelphia Eagles (9-7; 0-1): A healthy QB Carson Wentz had big 2019 to quiet doubters, despite average ground game and lack of elite receivers other than TE Zach Ertz. Birds had mid-pack defense last year led by DT Fletcher Cox, but luring Pro Bowl CB Darius Slay away from Detroit in free agency was a big get.

13. New England Patriots (12-4, 0-1): Ding dong the king is dead? Is the two-decade Belichick dynasty finally ending? The notion rests on more than just Brady leaving for Tampa — itself once unthinkable. No team was hit as hard by coronavirus-related opt-outs, including the loss of defensive mainstays Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung. There were hits in free agency, too. Pats might not have a truly elite player left other than CB Stephon Gilmore. But! (You knew it was coming.) Signing QB Cam Newton could restore Belichick’s genius card if Cam stays healthy. He has prime left at 31 and when healthy is a dynamic dual-threat. And Belichick is Belichick. Write off Pats’ playoff chances at your own peril.

14. Indianapolis Colts (7-9): Nags fell from 10 wins to seven in first year post-Andrew Luck, but signed ex-Charger Philip Rivers in the offseason for a QB upgrade over Jacoby Brissett. But how much does Rivers, 38 and interception-prone, have left? Indy’s top-five O-line led by OG Quenton Nelson will give him a shot to stave off doubters. Indy’s defense led by OLB Darius Leonard needed help, and got it in free agency with ex-Niner DT DeForest Buckner.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8): Pitt struggled with two backup QBs last year after Ben Roethlisbreger was lost to injury, tumbling to a second straight year out of playoffs. Now Big Ben is back but he’s also 38 and coming off elbow surgery. Can Ben, RB James Conner and WR Juju Smith-Schuster all stay healthy and return to 2018 form? No such worries on D, where OLB T.J. Watt, S Minkah Fitzpatrick and DT Cameron Heyward lead the way.

16. Houston Texans (10-6, 1-1): Bettors’ regard for Houston took a major hit when team stunningly and stupidly traded elite WR DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona for injury-prone RB David Johnson. But I still like Texans’ chances. QB Deshaun Watson is dynamic with both arm and legs and still has solid targets like Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks. Huge key: DE J.J. Watt staying healthy after managing only one full, injury-free season since 2015.

17. Los Angeles Rams (9-7): Only winning-record team to miss playoffs last year, big letdown after reaching Super Bowl season before — so much so that coach Sean McVay has two new coordinators. Rams need better season from QB Jared Goff and must hope rookie RB Cam Akers (FSU) is up to replacing departed Todd Gurley. Mighty DT Aaron Donald leads an otherwise just-OK defense; a full season of CB Jalen Ramsey should help.

18. Arizona Cardinals (5-10-1): Look out for the Redbirds. If any five-wins-or-fewer team is playoff-bound, I’d bet on ‘Zona. Second-year coach/QB tandem Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray are settling in and on the ascent. The offense came together as last season wore on, and now it adds A-list WR DeAndre Hopkins via trade. Lots of talent here led by Hopkins, ageless WR Larry Fitzgerald, OLB Chandler Jones, S Budda Baker and a rising Murray.

19. Atlanta Falcons (7-9): After consecutive 7-9 years despite a still-solid QB Matt Ryan and still-elite WR Julio Jones, Falcons look to newly signed RB Todd Gurley to shake off a poor 2019 season with Rams and add a jolt. Bigger need is on defense other than highly regarded DT Grady Jarrett, so team rolls dice with a new coordinator.

20. Cleveland Browns (6-10): A year ago this was supposed to be the “it” team but fizzled, extending club’s playoff drought to NFL-worst 17 straight seasons. Now it’s up to new coach Kevin Stefanski to meet expectations. QB Baker Mayfield regressed (21 picks) after promising rookie year and must bounce back. With top targets Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry, great young RB Nick Chubb, productive TE Austin Hooper and now beefed-up blocking with free agent addition of OT Jack Conklin, Mayfield has no excuses. Defense also must improve and see a star other than DE Myles Garrett emerge.

The also-rans

21. Chicago Bears (8-8): Chitown’s offense was as bad last year as its defense was good. The D should be winning-caliber again, led by OLB Khalil Mack. But the offense? Remaining doubts about the upside of QB Mitch Trubisky led team to trade for Nick Foles as safety net, and I don’t see much difference-making talent when Bears have the ball other than maybe WR Allen Robinson.

22. Denver Broncos (7-9): Team has not made playoffs since winning Super Bowl in 2015. Much rides on QB Drew Lock, who impressed in 4-1 run as rookie last year but now is handed the keys fulltime at 23. Team took a hit when OT Ja’Wuan James opted out of season over coronavirus concerns, but Lock will have help if newly acquired RB Melvin Gordon can regain his Pro Bowl form. Defense, led by OLB Von Miller and DT Jurrell Casey, is good enough to elevate team to playoff contender if Lock is all that.

23. Los Angeles Chargers (5-11): Plummeting from 12 wins to five made Bolts perhaps NFL’s biggest disappointment. Now Rivers is gone, and Tyrod Taylor minds the job and aims for WR Keenan Allen until rookie Justin Herbert is ready. Team targeted O-line help in free agency, and also aimed to bolster Joey Bosa-led defense that ranked mid-pack in points allowed.

24. MIAMI DOLPHINS (5-11): In last year’s rankings I wrote Fins’ QB play would exceed expectations and so would the season win total. Both happened. Expectations for 2020 remain low with complete rebuild fully underway, but clear signs of hope are bubbling up. Miami had most draft picks in April and most spending money in free agency, and result is significant upgrade in roster depth and talent. (Then again how can you not improve after allowing club-record 494 points on defense, having worst rushing attack and giving up most sacks?) Ryan Fitzpatrick proved last year he is more than capable of running things until rookie Tua Tagovailoa is ready, and should have much better run-game support this year. Big question: How long to jell for an offensive line that could have four new starters including two rookies? Coach Brian Flores should see biggest improvement on defense, with notable additions like CB Byron Jones, LB Kyle Van Noy and edge rushers Shaq Lawson and Emmanuel Ogbah. Jones and Xavien Howard will make a potent CB tandem if the latter can stay healthy for a change, and pass rush should be markedly better. I see Miami’s best possibility as around 8-8 and with luck even the periphery of wild-card contention, in a season all about anticipation for when Tagovailoa will finally be handed the keys to the future.

25. Las Vegas Raiders (7-9): The nee-Oakland Raiders enter their first season in Sin City with the onus on coach Jon Gruden and QB Derek Carr following three straight losing years. Team signed Marcus Mariota to push Carr, who is coming off a career-best 100.8 passer rating but can’t seem to shake his doubters. Carr has solid RB in Josh Jacobs but is light on notable pass catchers. Defense also needs help and was the focus of the offseason.

26. Detroit Lions (3-12-1): Club is coming off worst season since 2009, thanks largely to 0-8 mark after QB Matthew Stafford was lost for year to a back injury. Now Stafford is expected to be healthy but will need better blocking than he’s used to to stay that way. Lions forever need help on D and so added CB Desmond Trufant and LB Jamie Collins in free agency.

27. New York Giants (4-12): Biggies have been 12-36 since their last playoff season in 2106, but have a top RB in Saquon Barkley, a QB in Daniel Jones who threw 24 TD passes as a rookie last year, and some decent targets in WR Golden Tate and TE Evan Engram. NYG added productive CB James Bradberry in free agency, but D still looms an issue. Let’s see if new coach Joe Judge, eight years a Patriots assistant, brings any Belichick mojo with him.

The dregs

28. New York Jets (7-9): There’s a man on a ledge. He looks a lot like Adam Gase. Looking like a 10th straight year out of the playoffs for Planes, and like a season Gase might not survive. QB Sam Darnold has been just OK his first two seasons with a not-OK 28 picks, so they brought in Joe Flacco as insurance. Jets have few notable pass catchers, and RB Le’Veon Bell’s best days are past. And a nothing-special defense loses its two best players with LB C.J. Mosley’s coronavirus-related opt-out and S Jamal Adams traded.

29. Carolina Panthers (5-11): There’s fantasy-darling RB Christian McCaffrey and ... and a whole lotta nuthin’! QB Teddy Bridgewater is an interesting replacement for departed Newton, but is he better? As good? Carolina has the least-experienced coaching trio in the NFL in rookie head coach Matt Rhule and his two new coordinators. And LB Luke Kuechly’s sudden retirement at 29 is a huge blow to the D. A team in flux.

30. Cincinnati Bengals (2-14): Bengals did what Miami wouldn’t. They outright tanked, for their worst season since 2002 and QB Joe Burrow No. 1 in draft. It’s Burrow or bust from the get-go, with Andy Dalton gone and inexperienced Ryan Finley the backup. Aging WR A.J. Green is still productive when healthy. DT D.J. Reader and CB Trae Waynes are upgrades via free agency but not enough to turn around a really bad D. Unless Burrow is Mahomes out the gate, it’s a long season.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10): Jags are officially back to bad after reaching conference finals in 2017. (Was that a mirage?) QB Gardner Minshew is OK-ish but there isn’t much else to love on O, especially after cub unexpectedly waived RB Leonard Fournette. And Jax defense was trending down even before trading away top CB Jalen Ramsey.

32. Washington Football Team (7-9): No nickname. No real chance. The team, finally shamed into losing the racist moniker, had league’s lowest scoring team last year, were as bad on D (despite somehow winning seven games), and didn’t add much help in offseason. QB Dwayne Haskins needs to be a lot better than he showed as rookie, especially with Alex Smith finally cleared to play again. Bright side: New coach Ron Rivera is a big upgrade over fired Jay Gruden. It’ll pay dividends ... eventually.

This story was originally published September 8, 2020 at 9:00 AM.

Greg Cote

Miami Herald

305-376-3492

Greg Cote is a Miami Herald sports columnist who in 2025 won a first-place Green Eyeshade award in Sports Commentary and has finished top 10 in column writing by the Associated Press Sports Editors on multiple occasions. Greg also hosts The Greg Cote Show podcast and appears regularly on The Dan LeBatard Show With Stugotz.