It’s the Game of the Weak, Dolphins-Bengals! Plus all of our other NFL Week 16 picks | Opinion
GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 16 PICKS
DOLPHINS THIS WEEK
BENGALS (1-13) at DOLPHINS (3-11)
Line: CIN by 1.
Cote’s pick: MIA 27-20.
Upset! Sort of. Miami was favored for first time all season, albeit by one point. For a minute. Then betting line swung to even. Then it moved to Bengals by 1 (we use latest Caesars Sportsbook lines). I don’t get it. Miami is home and better than Cincy. Granted, that’s like saying Spam is tastier than tripe. Still. One-win Gals have No. 1 draft pick in-pocket at the moment. Why would they want to jeopardize that? While Miami, clearly playing to win under Brian Flores, has the added incentive in this home finale of halftime ceremony honoring 1972 Perfect Season Dolphins — voted best team of all time as part of NFL’s 100th anniversary. The current Fins should be inspired to not wet the bed as the iconic Perfectos look on. Did I mention Cincy is 0-7 on the road?
GAME OF THE WEEK
COWBOYS (7-7) at EAGLES (7-7)
Line: DAL by 1 1/2.
Cote’s pick: DAL 23-21.
Odd that a fortune .500 matchup is our GOTW, but, with both teams teed up for near-certain wins in Week 17, this is pretty much winner-take-all for the NFC East title and playoffs. Dallas went from 2 1/2 to 1 1/2 as road chalk late in week, perhaps a red flag? Is Philly a gift as home dog? Is Dak Prescott’s “minor” index finger injury on his throwing hand maybe not so minor? Presuming Dak is OK, he has more weapons than Carson Wentz and a better defense, too. And Dallas has won six of past seven trips to the City of Brotherly Shove. The Cowboys should win. That’s miles from will win, as Jerry Jones’ll tell you. But they should.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
PACKERS (11-3) at VIKINGS (10-4)
Line: MIN by 5 1/2.
Cote’s pick: GB 24-20.
“AAAWWWK!” carols the Upset Bird. “Fa la la la la, la la la laawwk!” Big stakes for Monday nighter with Game-of-Week heft. Packers are playoff-clinched but secure division with win. Vikes are in with a win or Rams loss. Admittedly this is risky pick. Though Gee Bees beat Purples 21-16 in Week 3, Minnesota is better on balance. And Vikes are 6-0 at home while Pack has lost 10 of past 12 roadies to teams with winning records. But! 1) Vikes star RB Dalvin Cook won’t play, reports ESPN. 2) Aaron Rodgers vs. Kirk Cousins. One is 7-14 in prime time. The other is Rodgers, who on his past five Monday nights has thrown for 1,683 yards, 14 TDs and one pick. “Good stats,” nods U-Bird. “Green Bay Paawwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 16:
Texans (9-5, -3) over @Buccaneers (7-7), 27-23: Kickoff to Saturday’s tripleheader finds it suddenly tough to bet against Tampa and Jameis Winston, who has surpassed 450 yards each of past two games. But I’m doing it! Houston still fighting for playoffs and clinches division with win. Bucs, relegated to spoilers, face a much better defense here than in their four-game win streak, while Deshaun Watson faces league’s worst pass D.
@Patriots (11-3, -6 1/2) over Bills (10-4), 19-16: Saturday’s middle game will have playoff feel and might have been our Game of Week if Cowboys-Eagles weren’t winner-take-all. Pats clinch division with win and still vie for first-round bye. Buffs also have clinched postseason. Two strong defenses should keep scoring way down. Pats at home always safe play, but like Bills’ cover.
@49ers (11-3, -6 1/2) over Rams (8-6), 24-20: Prime-time division test closes Saturday troika. Frans in playoffs for first time since 2013 but still have division crown and bye in play. Niners silenced Rams 20-7 in October, but Todd Gurley missed that one, and SF defense is beat up now. Rams will be best NFC team to miss playoffs and should keep this close.
@Falcons (5-9, -7 1/2) over Jaguars (5-9), 31-16: Atlanta is finishing on an upswing while Jax was finishing like a team trying to get Doug Marrone fired — at least until last week’s upset win at Oakland. Matt Ryan at home, thank you.
Ravens (12-2, -10) over @Browns (6-8), 37-13: Incredibly, Baltimore lost at home to Cleveland 40-25 in Week 4. Ravens haven’t lost since, while Earthtones have gone from full of hype to out of playoffs. Again. BAL clinches bye and home-field throughout with win as Crows and MVP-headed Lamar Jackson emphatically remind Cleveland who’s boss.
Saints (11-3, -3) over @Titans (8-6), 30-23: Game of Week-quality duel has large stakes as N’Awlins stills guns to lock down first-round bye and Tenners still claw to reach postseason. Home-dog Titans are on 5-1 series run and have sizable upset shot. But Saints have won five in a row and 10 of past 12 on road. Oh and there’s that Drew Brees-Michael Thomas combo.
@Colts (6-8, -6 1/2) over Panthers (5-9), 23-18: Welcome to the Sad Bowl. Carolina has lost six in row and has benched backup QB Kyle Allen for rookie Will Grier. Indy has lost four straight behind a declining Jacoby Brissett. Like Nags in a venue call but Cats to stay close.
Steelers (8-6, -3) over @Jets (5-9), 20-16: Jets RB Le’Veon Bell facing his longtime former team for first time is headline in New York, but bigger story is Pittsburgh needing win as it jockeys for wild-card ticket. Give Planes medium upset shot (especially if safety Jamal Adams plays), but in what should be defensive scrum, don’t forget: You make Sam Darnold see ghosts by blitzing, and nobody does that better than Pitt.
@Redskins (3-11, -2 1/2) over Giants (3-11), 24-21: With the only stakes a higher draft pick, NYG expects to have Daniel Jones back (sorry, Eli). Still lean Washers in venue call. Skins have been fighting harder for Bill Callahan than they did for Jay Gruden, and Dwayne Haskins is incrementally less awful.
@Broncos (5-9, -6 1/2) over Lions (3-10-1), 23-9: A Detroit team that has lost seven in a row, is piloted by a third-string quarterback and is a dome team traveling to play in wintry Denver. Yeah, I don’t think so, Lions.
@Chargers (5-9, -7 1/2) over Raiders (6-8), 27-17: Team Gruden couldn’t muster the magic to win its Oakland finale in storybook fashion, and now RB Josh Jacobs is out. Bolts on a 12-4 home run vs. Raiders and should continue that trend.
@Seahawks (11-3, -10) over Cardinals (4-9-1), 28-20: Seattle is in but still playing for division title and bye, and Russell Wilson can break Tom Brady’s record for most wins (86) in first eight years. But Zona has won three of past four trips to Seattle. And with Seahawks closing vs. San Fran next week — likely for NFC West title — see Cardbirds sneaking inside betting line.
Chiefs (10-4, -6) over @Bears (7-7), 24-16: Sunday nighter finds Chiefs on 6-1 run in road games and still angling for first-round bye. Dan Marino reached 75 TD passes in record-low 31 games. Patrick Mahomes has 73 after 29. Bad Bears offense meets improving KC defense now adding Terrell Suggs.
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
Our season has tailed off a bit lately, especially against the spread the past two weeks, but we’re still running solid overall and plus-side ATS. Last week we called the Cowboys’ mini-upset over Rams and had the Falcons with points at Niners, but that was about it for the highlight reel. (The tie was Seattle’s 6-point push). Santa, all I want for Christmas is 13-3 against the spread this week. C’mon, I’ve been a good boy!
Overall; Vs. spread
Week 15 — 9-7, .563; 6-9-1, .400
Season — 148-75-1, .664; 113-106-3, .516
Final 2018 — 179-75-2, .705; 145-104-7, .582
This story was originally published December 19, 2019 at 3:51 PM.
