Dolphins-Browns, top games, big upsets — presenting all of our latest NFL Week 12 picks | Opinion
GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 12 PICKS
DOLPHINS THIS WEEK
DOLPHINS (2-8) at BROWNS (4-6)
Line: CLE by 11.
Cote’s pick: CLE 30-13.
Odell Beckham Jr. and former Dolphin Jarvis Landry both are battling injuries for Cleveland but you know they’ll play. A dead receiver would rise in his coffin for the chance to face a Miami pass defense allowing the third-highest opponent passer rating in the NFL. Then again, how much will Baker Mayfield have to throw with Nick Chubb kicking up dirt against the league’s 31st-ranked run defense? Have you gotten the idea yet that I don’t love this matchup for Miami? Plus Ryan Fitzpatrick is iffy with right shoulder and forearm injuries, so Josh Rosen is on call. Uh oh. Either guy will have no run support. The good news? Browns DE Myles Garrett is suspended so he won’t be swinging his helmet at anybody’s head. Tempted to fancy the Fins with an 11-point head start. The thing is, Miami is 1-10 in its past 11 roadies, and I envision a rout more than I do anything winnable late.
GAME OF THE WEEK
UPSET OF THE WEEK
PACKERS (8-2) at 49ERS (9-1)
Line: SF by 3.
Cote’s pick: GB 28-24.
“AAAWWWK!” warbles the Upset Bird. “Green Baaawwwk!” Prime-time Sunday gets a heavyweight bout that will feel like an NFC Championship Game. Aaron Rodgers and the Pack come in off a bye and are healthier than they’ve been all year. San Fran’s defense has looked mortal lately, giving up 78 points the past three games. Also concerning: Three top Niners yard producers — TE George Kittle, RB Matt Breida and WR Emmanuel Sanders — all are questionable to play. (Sniff). I smell an upset! “Yes, indeed,” says a nodding U-Bird. “Although the olfactory acuity of my breed, the common raven (Corvus corax) is open to spirited scientific debate. Go Packers. Go Paaawwwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 12:
@Falcons (3-7, -4) over Buccaneers (3-7), 38-16: Big defense has fueled Atlanta’s two straight impressive wins, and now arrives a Tampa team the Falcs have beaten five times in a row. And a QB, Jameis Winston, who has thrown 13 picks in his past five games. Matt Ryan might roll 400 on Bucs’ sorry pass D.
@Bills (7-3, -4) over Broncos (3-7), 19-17: Denver has been really competitive the past three straight games, and I’m chancing Broncos with the points in what should be a low-points affair.
@Bears (4-6, -6) over Giants (2-8), 23-20: Mitch Trubisky (ribs) seems ready to start. Is that a good thing? Biggies defense is awful, but can weak-scoring Chitown take advantage? See NYG, off a bye, keeping it inside the bet-line.
Steelers (5-5, -7) over @Bengals (0-10), 23-17: Pitt’s offense is hurtin’, with WR Juju Smith-Schuster unlikely to play, C Maurkice Pouncey suspended and RB James Conner very iffy. Steelers have won nine straight in series and six in row at Cincy, but I hunch ‘Gals muster what little pride hasn’t yet been beaten out of them and keep it close.
@Saints (8-2, -8 1/2) over Panthers (5-5), 34-13: The bloom is off Cats fill-in QB Kyle Allen. Christian McCaffrey will get his numbers, but their fantasy owners will absolutely feast on Drew Brees and Michael Thomas here.
@Jets (3-7, +3) over Raiders (6-4), 23-20: Upset! NYJ and Sam Darnold have been cadavers-come-to-life in two straight wins (albeit vs. bottom-feeding Giants and Skins), and hot Oakland is due a road stumble. Raiders have lost five trips in row to Jetsville, and home team is on 8-1 series run.
@Eagles (5-5, -2) over Seahawks (8-2), 27-24: Phils’ plausible playoff shot is via NFC East title, not wild card, so the more desperate team is the one at home here. Seattle, off a bye, 5-0 on road and getting points, tempts me like pie a la mode. You know Russell Wilson will outpitch Carson Wentz. But I’m saddling up the venue and Eagles’ defense. And praying.
Lions (3-6-1, -3 1/2) over @Redskins (1-9), 20-17: Detroit is on a 1-6 skid and Washington is Washington. Run from this game like it had rabies. Two bad defenses, but Dwayne Haskins’ Skins with the ball will be worst unit on field. Still, a big upset shot, so I’m hedging with Washington to cover.
@Titans (5-5, -3) over Jaguars (4-6), 24-17: Tennessee and Derrick Henry run the ball well. Jacksonville’s defense has allowed 480 yards rushing the past two games. That is not a misprint. Ryan Tannehill (3-1 starting) has Titans back in AFC South chase, but running and defense will steer this one.
@Patriots (9-1, -6 1/2) over Cowboys (6-4), 27-16: Death, taxes, typos in a Trump tweet and Patriots winning at Foxborough. That’s about it for life’s certainties. New England has won 20 home games in a row. Twenty. Dallas tends to beat bad teams and lose to good ones. This is a good one. Tom Brady needs to jump-start that offense, but venue and elite defense make this a no-hesitation pick.
Ravens (8-2, -3) over @Rams (6-4), 30-17: Baltimore risks a letdown after that utter domination of Deshaun Watson and Houston. But a worthy opponent and the Monday night stage tend to slap the letdown clean out of you. Lamar Jackson’s offense can seem unstoppable, and Ravens’ defense also is ratcheting up. Rams have won three of past four over so-so to bad teams. Yonder comes the rude awakening.
OFF THIS WEEK
Cardinals (3-7-1; next vs. Rams): It’s last week for byes. Bye-bye, byes! Cardbirds have lost four in a row.
Chargers (4-7; next @Broncos): Philip Rivers’ four INTs doomed Bolts vs. KC. Suddenly: Old Man Rivers.
Chiefs (7-4; next vs. Raiders): Impenetrable Arrowhead? KC is 2-3 at home, and 5-1 on road.
Vikings (8-3; next @Seahawks): Vikes-’Hawks next Monday night stars two of NFC’s five 8-win teams.
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
Pocketed a nifty 11-3 overall last week and scrambled to an even 7-7 against the spread. Had very little confidence in my Jaguars-over-Colts call but needed an Upset of the Week pick and blatantly forced it. Won’t do that again. We did nail a mini-upset with Jets beating Skins, and won on a pair of dogs-with-points in Falcons and Cardinals. Time to catch a wave and ride it! [Note: Thursday night pick was @Texans (-3 1/2) over Colts, 27-17. Find that full pick capsule here].
Overall; Vs. spread
Week 11 — 11-3, .786; 7-7, .500
Season — 110-51-1, .683; 86-74-2, .538
Final 2018 — 179-75-2, .705; 145-104-7, .582
