Good news, bad news for Dolphins fans. After going 15-0 last week, our NFL Week 9 picks | Opinion
GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 9 PICKS
DOLPHINS THIS WEEK
UPSET OF THE WEEK
JETS (1-6) at DOLPHINS (0-7)
Line: NYJ by 3.
Cote’s pick: MIA 24-21.
“AAAWWWK!” screams the Upset Bird. “The Dolphins win a game! Is that good or baawwk!?” We can all agree, I hope, that the Dolphins have risen from being historically embarrassing in the first few games to being merely regular-bad lately. We can also agree, I hope, that the Stinkin’ Jets are hardly any better, and that Adam Gase looks about as happy as an inmate whose final stay of execution has just been denied by the governor. Overshadowing this matchup, of course: The jockeying for the overall No. 1 draft pick, as the bye-week Bengals watch keenly. Why the upset pick? 1) Sam Darnold (who sees ghosts, by the way) has seven interceptions in the past two games. Darnold bad is worse than Ryan Fitzpatrick bad. 2) Fins players and coaches are beyond-tired of the accusation they are intentionally trying to lose games. The franchise is tanking, but the lockerroom is not. That is an important distinction. It gives Miami the greater incentive here, in addition to the home field. “Yes, tanking schmanking,” adds U-Bird. “Fins win! Fins win! Fins waaawwwk!”
GAME OF THE WEEK
PATRIOTS (8-0) at RAVENS (5-2)
Line: NE by 3 1/2.
Cote’s pick: NE 23-20.
The 1972 Perfect Season Dolphins who stay up that late will be watching Sunday night because this might be the biggest loss-threat left on the unbeaten Patriots’ schedule. Give Crows a major upset shot. Why? Because New England lives on short fields by forcing opponent turnovers — but Baltimore minds the ball well. That means Tom Brady may need to work harder than unusual for his points. And Pats’ insanely good pass defense has feasted on a lot of bad QBs this year and not yet faced a threat like Lamar Jackson. A delicious coach matchup too as John Harbaugh, off a bye week, tries to solve NE’s defense, while Bill Belichick strategizes to limit Jackson’s run threat and force him to throw into the maw of the NFL’s best secondary. Nothing but a bad game would surprise me here. Like Pats to find a way, but Ravens getting that extra half-point on the spread.
THE REST OF WEEK 9:
Texans (5-3, -1) over Jaguars (4-4) in London, 24-20: It’s Breakfast at Wembley as the NFL’s infatuation with London plays on. Houston losing DE J.J. Watt is a big blow and helps make this a near pick-’em game, but I’ll ride with the resourcefulness of dual-threat Deshaun Watson.
@Bills (5-2, -9 1/2) over Redskins (1-7), 19-6: With QB Case Keenum iffy (concussion) into Thursday, the strong possibility of struggling rookie Dwayne Haskins is another reason to like the Buffs at home. A rebound effort by Bills’ D will dominate the Skins.
Vikings (6-2, even) over @Chiefs (5-3), 30-27: Patrick Mahomes had not been ruled out as of Thursday but appeared doubtful to return from his kneecap injury, swinging our Game of the Week first-alternate to a pick-’em contest. Vikes have won four in a row and hope to have Adam Thielen back. Also see a huge game from Dalvin Cook vs. a KC defense that allowing more run yards than anyone but the winless Bengals and Fins.
@Eagles (4-4, -5) over Bears (3-4), 23-20: Chitown’s offense and kicking game are a shambles. Philly’s secondary is shaky, but can struggling Mitch Trubisky take advantage? Birds need more from Carson Wentz, but Bears’ big D is a fair bet to keep this inside the Vegas number.
@Steelers (3-4, +1) over Colts (5-2), 21-17: Upset! Sort of. Pitt RB James Conner is iffy but Jaylen Samuels should be back. Steelers are 3-1 since 0-3 start and have won nine of past 10 at home vs. Indy. Make it a venue call in a near tossup game.
@Panthers (4-3, -4) over Titans (4-4), 23-20: Look for Kyle Allen to bounce back a bit from last week’s nightmare vs. San Fran, while Ryan Tannehill (2-0 since replacing Marcus Mariota) faces his toughest test yet. Hedging on points, though. See a field goal difference.
@Raiders (3-4, -2) over Lions (3-3-1), 30-27: Oakland is playing its first home game in 48 days. Raiders’ erratic nature makes Motown a tempting upset play, but Derek Carr should find some wide open spaces in Lions’ depleted secondary.
@Seahawks (6-2, -6) over Buccaneers (2-5), 31-16: Seattle has unbeaten rival San Fran on deck, so look-ahead might be a factor here. And Seahawks are only 2-2 at their once impenetrable home this year. Still, Tampa is on a 4-18 skid on the road, and Jameis Winston produces more turnovers than most bakeries.
@Broncos (2-6, +3) over Browns (2-5), 19-17: Upset! Two disappointing teams wracked by internal turmoil make this a volatile matchup (and pick). Brandon Allen makes first career start for injured Joe Flacco, but that could be a plus. A spark. Bottom line, give me Broncos’ D at Mile High vs. an Earthtones squad that kills itself with penalties and giveaways.
Packers (7-1, -3) over @Chargers (3-5), 27-20: Aaron Rodgers’ Gee Bees have won four in a row (also four straight on road), but Philip Rivers vs. a pliable Pack air-D should make for a fun matchup. One key: Both of their top WRs, Davante Adams and Keenan Allen, could play or might not. Bolts fired offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt. They still won’t outscore Rodgers.
Cowboys (4-3, -7) over @Giants (2-6), 34-16: Cowboys hit the Monday stage off a bye, after beating Philly and with Minnesota on deck. Might they take reeling NYG lightly? Nah. ‘Boys should be up (enough) for a rival in prime time. Besides, Dallas lost to the Jets. Should they take anyone lightly? Ezekiel and Dak will eat up Biggies’ defense. Giants need turnover-free game to stay in it, a very large ask.
OFF THIS WEEK
Bengals (0-8; next vs. Ravens): Cincy benched veteran QB Andy Dalton for Ryan Finley. Miami’s biggest rival for overall No. 1 draft pick could win by not playing if Fins beats Jets.
Falcons (1-7; next @Saints): Atlanta, based on preseason expectations, is the NFL’s single biggest disappointment at midseason.
Rams (5-3; next @Steelers): L.A. has rallied with two straight wins but they’ve been over the weakling Falcons and Bengals.
Saints (7-1; next vs. Falcons): Drew Brees returned spectacularly from injury last week to lead sixth straight win for a N’Awlins squad looking Super Bowl-capable.
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
History! I have been at these NFL picks in the Miami Herald since 1991 -- that’s 29 seasons -- and last week’s 15-0 record straight-up was my first-ever perfect week. (Where’s my welcome-to-the-club from Don Shula and his ‘72 Perfectos?) I stumbled in an OK 7-8 against the spread, nailing another Upset of the Week with Chargers’ win at Chicago (“Aawwk!”), and a second outright upset hit with Eagles winning in Buffalo. Also had Dolphins with points in Pittsburgh. Usually my ATS record means more to me, but, hey, 15-0 is 15-0! My previous record for best weekly win percentage was .929 (13-1), and for most wins I’d had a handful of 14-2s. But never a Perfecto --until now. The only negative: Nowhere to go but down? (Note: Thursday night pick was 49ers (-10) over @Cardinals, 27-13. Find that full pick capsule here).
Overall; Vs. spread
Week 8 — 15-0, 1.000; 7-8, .467
Season — 81-39-1, .675; 64-56-1, .533
Final 2018 — 179-75-2, .705; 145-104-7, .582
This story was originally published October 31, 2019 at 2:33 PM.
