The word that the Heat needs to quietly send out to stars considering a trade request
If you’re a star player and you would like to spend your winters in balmy Miami, playing for an organization that has made seven NBA Finals appearances this century, here’s some advice:
Tell your team by late May, or early June at the latest.
And find a way for your agent or a trustful intermediary to tell the Heat, too.
Here’s why the timing on the Heat’s impending umpteenth star search is so important:
If the Heat has a trade in place by the first night of the June 25-26 NBA Draft, Miami could offer a more appealing package than it could after the draft.
Here’s how it would work:
In the days or weeks before the draft, Miami could offer what amounts to as many as three first-rounders: That would include Golden State’s first-round pick (20th overall) in this June’s draft and its own first-round picks in 2030 and 2032. But the catch is the 2032 pick cannot be traded until after draft night.
But by agreeing to a trade before draft night, Miami could use Golden State’s pick to select a player that another team asks Miami to pick, with a discreet understanding that the player drafted at 20 will be sent along with 2030 and 2032 first-round picks in the days following the draft.
For any trades made now or in the weeks before the draft, Miami can trade only Golden State’s first-rounder, plus one other first-rounder (in 2030 or 2031). The 2032 pick is unlocked, for trade purposes, immediately after the draft.
But if a trade is verbally agreed to before the draft, the Heat can essentially make sure that the other team gets three of its first-round picks. Conversely, if Miami uses the Warriors’ pick to select a player that it wants — and not one that another team wants — then Miami essentially can offer only two future first-round picks (2030 or 2032).
At least three picks likely would be necessary to land an in-his-prime star, if one becomes available.
In fact, four first-round picks might be necessary to land a star, and there’s a way the Heat could achieve that, too — but only if it happens by draft night and only if the Charlotte Hornets are willing to be active participants.
Here’s how:
Miami owes Charlotte a first-round pick, from the regrettable Terry Rozier trade. That pick is lottery protected in 2027 and unprotected in 2028 if it isn’t conveyed in 2027. Because teams must own at least one first-round pick every other year, that trade prohibits the Heat from trading any first-rounders this decade.
But there’s nothing to stop Miami from going to Charlotte and offering a 2032 unprotected first-rounder, plus cash, a second-rounder, a player (Jaime Jaquez Jr.?) and even a pick swap in exchange for giving Miami back its 2027 first-rounder.
If the Hornets agreed to that (and the deal couldn’t be done until after draft night), Miami could theoretically then pick a player for another team at No. 20 in June (Golden State’s pick) and within NBA rules could then also offer its own first-round picks in 2026, 2028 and 2030. But Miami could offer those four specific picks only if the deal for an All-Star is verbally agreed to by draft night (and if Charlotte cooperates).
That’s why it’s important for a star who wants to play in Miami to make his intentions known (at least privately to his own team and to the Heat) long before the draft.
Acquiring Duncan Robinson — whose salary is only partially guaranteed — also could be a carrot for teams with high payrolls, as explained here. But any deal involving Robinson would need to be completed before his July 8 guarantee date.
So the sooner a trade can be made, the more attractive a package the Heat could offer.
Unfortunately for the Heat, NBA superstars operate on their own timelines. So if Giannis Antetokounmpo or Ja Morant or some other star decides to ask out in July instead of June, Miami would be in a weaker position than it would before the draft.
As for Antetokoumpo, nobody has any idea if he will ask out of Milwaukee.
Longtime NBA writer Howard Beck said this week on a podcast with Zach Lowe: “Does Giannis ask out? If he does, does he have a list? I poked around a little bit a few days ago and the initial thing I got from one person was some rumblings that it’s already just the big cities. It’s one of the L.A. teams or one of the New York teams, or maybe Miami.”
As for any Heat hypothethical pursuit of Morant, The Ringer’s Lowe said on his podcast: “I don’t see it. I don’t think that’s the star Miami will go for when they use their ammo and they will inevitable try to use their ammo.”
Durant note
The sense here is that while the Heat might again pursue Phoenix’s Kevin Durant, Miami isn’t going to offer all of its first-round inventory for a 36-year-old with one year left on his contract.
But Houston’s interest in Durant has been overstated, according to reports. Minnesota could become a top contender for Durant if the Wolves don’t win a championship.
