How the Robinson contract could help Heat in a trade and be a get-of-jail-card for teams
Though the Heat’s trade assets are decent, several other teams with a treasure chest of future first-round draft picks are seemingly better positioned to acquire a disgruntled star via a trade.
But Miami has one carrot that other teams do not: Duncan Robinson’s unusual contract.
And that contract presents an opportunity for some cost-conscious owners to secure a get-out-of-jail card.
Robinson’s five-year, $90 million contract - which has one year remaining - contains only a partial guarantee for next season.
Miami must decide by July 8 whether to pay Robinson his full $19.9 million salary for next season or pay him the guaranteed $9.9 million portion and release him – a move that would save the Heat $10 million against the cap and luxury tax. (Miami would not be anywhere close to slipping under the 2025-26 salary cap even if it released Robinson.)
But for teams worried about their position with the luxury tax – or eager to climb below the punitive first or second apron - acquiring Robinson in a trade, before the guarantee deadline, would present an opportunity to instantly lower their tax bill and improve their flexibility.
When NBA trades (involving $30 million or more in salaries for each team) are made involving teams without cap space but under the aprons, salaries must be within 125 percent of each other, plus as much as $250,000.
But teams over the first or second aprons (which are about $8 million and $20 million over the tax line, respectively) cannot acquire any more money than they’re sending out.
There’s also an arcane rule involving any possible trade of Robinson before July 8: His full $19.9 million salary counts on the Heat’s books in a trade, but only $9.9 million counts for the team acquiring him.
As a hypothetical, let’s say Miami sent Robinson, Andrew Wiggins, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Pelle Larsson and Golden State’s 2025 first-round pick, two second rounders and pick swaps to Phoenix for Kevin Durant, who has one year remaining on his contract.
That’s $54 million in salary being sent out by the Heat and $54.7 million (Durant’s salary) coming back. But only $9.9 million of Robinson’s salary counts on the Suns’ books, while Robinson’s entire $19.9 million counts on Miami’s books within NBA trade rules.
But that trade would be cap compliant for Miami because of the 125 percent rule and would be cap compliant for Phoenix because they’re taking back less money than they send out, a requirement for teams over either apron, and not aggregating contracts, a requirement for teams over the second apron.
But here’s the catch: To make a trade like that, the Heat, by NBA rule, must stay under the first apron. In other words, the trade is prohibited if it puts Miami over the first apron.
Without factoring in Davion Mitchell or its first round pick or Keshad Johnson’s team option, Miami is about $16 million below the first apron. That shrinks by $10 million in that Phoenix/Robinson/Durant hypothetical transaction and would leave the Heat with only nine players under contract, forcing Miami to fill most remaining roster spots with minimum deals unless it can dump money elsewhere.
That would make a Mitchell return unlikely. Keep in mind that the cap hit for the 20th pick of last year’s draft, Cleveland’s Jaylon Tyson, was $3.3 million and that will rise a bit and must be accounted for on Miami’s cap if the pick isn’t traded. The Durant hypothetical above would require that pick being dealt unless Miami can offload money in a different deal.
Even though the Suns likely could get more for Durant than the aforementioned hypothetical Heat package, the Robinson contract -- if he’s traded before July 8 -- has value for an owner looking to get his team under either apron.
If the Suns made that trade and then cut Robinson -- and waived Cody Martin (whose contract is non-guaranteed) and declined Vasa Micic’s team option -- their payroll would go from $210 million to $183 million, which is below the $187.9 million luxury tax threshold and give the Suns far more flexibility.
Let’s say Giannis Antetokounmpo asks for a trade (unclear if he will) from Milwaukee, which is $13 million under the luxury tax threshold, not counting impending free agents Gary Trent and Brook Lopez.
While a few other teams theoretically could top an offer built around Bam Adebayo and three-first round picks and one or two of Miami’s young players, Miami including Robinson would allow the Bucks (if they cut Robinson) to clear out $23 million in space for Trent (who averaged 19 points in the playoffs) and Lopez and/or use of its full midlevel exception.
If Memphis took Robinson in a Ja Morant trade and cut Robinson, that would open $17 million in cap space for the Grizzlies, counting Santi Aldama’s cap hold.
If the Heat could acquire perpetually injured Pelicans forward Zion Williamson without giving up valuable assets and if Robinson were included, the Pelicans could create $13 million of room under the tax. They’re just $3 million under now factoring in their draft pick, per ESPN’s Bobby Marks.
Boston, Minnesota, Denver and Dallas are among other teams facing tax bills next season, with the Lakers also up against the tax. The Celtics will be looking to trim payroll this summer, ESPN reported Thursday. There’s no indication that the other four teams are determined to fall under the tax line.
Even with the Robinson chip, Miami will be at an asset disadvantage in trade pursuits this summer. Oklahoma City has 10 tradeable first round picks, San Antonio five and Houston four.
The Heat has two tradeable firsts but could essentially deal three if they draft a player for another team on June 25, as part of a pre-arranged deal completed after the draft.
So the Robinson contract assures nothing in the trade market. But it could help the Heat close a deal if a team likes Miami’s other assets and wants tax or cap relief. It likely would come at the cost of Mitchell, but Robinson -- for another two months -- gives Miami a financial carrot that most other teams lack.
This story was originally published May 1, 2025 at 4:07 PM.
