Wednesday night update: Where the Heat stands and scenarios involving first-round opponent
The Heat on Wednesday stood on the cusp of clinching the top seed in the Eastern Conference, needing only a win on Friday against visiting Atlanta or Sunday at Orlando to assure that.
But the Heat’s first-round opponent won’t be known for more than a week, with four possibilities if the Heat stays No. 1 in the East: Cleveland, Brooklyn, Atlanta or Charlotte.
The Nets would be the most daunting among potential opponents. So how could the Heat avoid the Nets?
If the Nets -- who beat the Knicks on Wednesday - also win their final two games (home to Cleveland on Friday and home against Indiana on ESPN at 3:30 p.m. on Sunday), Brooklyn would finish seventh in the East because it would then own a tiebreaker with the No. 7 Cavaliers, who lead the Nets by one game.
In that specific scenario, the Nets and Cleveland would meet in the 7-8 play-in game next week in Brooklyn, with the winner of that game claiming the No. 7 seed and playing the No. 2 seed in the first round.
The loser of that 7-8 play-in game would play the winner of the 9-10 play-in game (Atlanta-Charlotte, in this aforementioned scenario) for the No. 8 seed and the right to meet the No. 1 seed.
Though the No. 8 Nets and No. 9 Hawks entered Wednesday with the same record at 41-38, the Nets control their own destiny for the No. 8 seed because they won the season series with Atlanta and thus own the tiebreaker.
Both the Nets and Hawks are now 42-38 after Atlanta’s win against Washington on Wednesday.
The Nets also control their own destiny for the No. 7 seed.
Charlotte, which is in 10th place at 40-39, owns the tiebreaker with Brooklyn.
If the Nets lose Friday or Sunday, Atlanta would move past Brooklyn by winning out (at the Heat on Friday and at Houston on Sunday).
Charlotte closes with games at Orlando and at Chicago, and then a home game against Washington.
Teams that finish ninth and 10th can emerge from the play-in games with no higher than the eighth seed.
So if Brooklyn falls to ninth or tenth and wins two games in the play-in round, the Nets would play Miami in the first round, presuming the Heat is the top seed.
As for the Heat, there are several ways for Miami to clinch the No. 1 seed even if the Heat loses its remaining two games. Among those: a loss by Milwaukee and a loss by Boston, which beat Chicago on Wednesday.
The Heat would clinch the top seed on Thursday if the Celtics lose to the Bucks and the 76ers lose to the Raptors.
The Bucks would win a three-team tiebreaker with Miami and Philadelphia because of a superior record in head to head meetings among the three. Philadelphia cannot surpass Miami for the top seed.
Miami (52-28) entered Wednesday’s play 2.5 games ahead of Boston, Milwaukee and Philadelphia, who all stood at 49-30. Boston closed to within two games of Miami by beating Chicago on Wednesday night.
For the Celtics to surpass Miami, Boston needs two wins (at Milwaukee, at Memphis) and two Heat losses.
THIS AND THAT
The Heat had no immediate update on PJ Tucker’s strained right calf, an injury sustained in the third quarter of Tuesday’s game. Tucker didn’t return after the injury and didn’t speak to reporters afterward.
But with the Heat unlikely to open the postseason until Sunday, April 17, Tucker would have well over a week to recover.
▪ Charlotte coach James Borrego, after Miami produced its highest point total ever in a regulation game in Tuesday’s 144-115 thumping of the Hornets: “They are a hell of a group. They got depth, size, they shoot it, they defend. They’ve got a starting unit and a bench unit.”
▪ Bam Adebayo has gone 15 consecutive games shooting at least 50 percent from the field in each of them. He’s the fourth Heat player to achieve that, joining Chris Birdman Anderson (who did it most recently in 2013-14), Shaquille O’Neal (who did it four times) and Alonzo Mourning.
Adebayo is shooting 62.6 percent during this 15-game stretch.
Here’s my Wednesday piece examining the best decision that Erik Spoelstra has made this season.
This story was originally published April 6, 2022 at 5:20 PM.
