Examining Spoelstra’s best decision of the year and how Heat’s Strus and Robinson compare
Erik Spoelstra stands as a clear underdog, behind Phoenix’s Monty Williams and Memphis’ Taylor Jenkins, in voting for the NBA’s Coach of the Year.
But Decision of the Year?
If such a recognition existed, Spoelstra replacing Duncan Robinson with Max Strus in the starting lineup would certainly warrant consideration.
The Heat’s ongoing five-game game winning streak dovetailed with Spoelstra inserting Strus in Miami’s starting five, a move that sent Robinson to the bench.
Strus has flourished in the new role, and Robinson has thrived more often than not off the bench, delivering 21 points in Monday’s 144-115 stomping of Charlotte.
The transition, Robinson acknowledged Tuesday night, has been somewhat difficult.
“For me, it’s just about wrapping my mind around that, and it’s definitely not something that’s easy,” Robinson said. “It’s sacrifice. When you’re on a good team like that, that’s what it takes. Whatever is required of me on a nightly basis, I’m four feet in.”
After Robinson missed three games in COVID protocols around New Year’s Day, Spoelstra started Strus for Robinson’s first five games back in early January.
Over those five games, Strus scored 25, 14, 11, 16 and 11 points, while shooting 46.5 percent on three-pointers (20 for 43).
The Heat won the first four of those games before losing the fifth, to Philadelphia, after which Spoelstra reinserted Robinson in the lineup.
After Spoelstra opted to resume starting Strus last week, the third-year swingman from DePaul has produced scoring outputs of 8, 14, 10, 23 and 12, while shooting 50 percent (18 for 36) on three-pointers during that stretch.
“I’m just here to help,” Strus said of the lineup change. “I just want to make the game easy on everybody else. They’ve seen when I’m open, I’m going to shoot and knock down shots, and just be there for the guys.”
So how do Robinson and Strus compare statistically this season? Strus has the edge in nearly every quantifiable measure:
▪ Shooting percentage: Strus is shooting 40.8 percent on threes, which is 19th in the league. His 179 made threes are 25th.
Robinson is shooting 37.2 percent on threes, which is 68th in the league. His 227 made threes are seventh most in the NBA.
▪ Points per 36 minutes: Strus has the edge there, too, averaging 16.5 points (108th in the league) to Robinson’s 15.2, which ranks 131st.
They average virtually the same number of field goal attempts per 36 minutes (12.9 to 12.8).
▪ Performance as starters: Robinson, when he starts, is averaging 11.1 points, 2.7 rebounds and 1.7 assists in 26.7 minutes per game, while shooting 49.6 percent from the field and 36.8 on three-pointers.
The Heat is 42-25 with Robinson starting.
Strus, in his 15 games as a starter, has averaged 16.6 points, 3.7 rebounds and 1.7 assists on 48.6 percent shooting from the field and 46.4 percent shooting on threes.
The Heat is 13-2 when Strus starts.
Edge: Strus.
▪ Plus/minus: With Robinson on the floor, the Heat has outscored teams by 125, which is eighth on the team.
With Strus on the floor, the Heat has outscored teams by 159, which is sixth on the team.
Per 100 possessions, the Heat outscores teams by 5.0 points with Strus on the court, compared with 3.1 for Robinson.
In the 15 games that Strus has started, Miami has outscored teams by 68 points with Strus on the court.
▪ Playing with the other starters: With Robinson playing alongside Jimmy Butler, P.J. Tucker, Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowry in the Heat’s former starting lineup, Miami has outscored teams by 108 in 423 minutes and shot 47 percent from the field but just 33.2 percent on three-pointers. It’s by far Miami’s most-used lineup.
Strus has played just 53 minutes alongside Butler, Tucker, Adebayo and Lowry, but the shooting numbers with that lineup are far better than those with Robinson, albeit in a much smaller sample size. That starting lineup with Strus is shooting 58.3 percent from the field and 53.8 on threes.
The starting quintet with Robinson has outscored teams by 12.3 points per 48 minutes. The starting five with Strus has outscored teams by 11.7 per 48.
▪ Defensive metrics: Strus is allowing the player he’s guarding to shoot 44.6 percent, compared to the 44.9 those players shoot overall.
Robinson is allowing the player he’s guarding to shoot 47.1 percent, compared to the 45.5 those players shoot overall.
Strus has taken 15 charges, Robinson 11.
“He’s really improved in seeing situations happen before they happen, getting to his spots earlier,” Spoelstra said of Strus, without any reference to Robinson. “He also has some size where he can help out on the glass when he’s on the backside of your defense. Whether he’s rebounding or throwing his body into the mix, it helps.”
▪ Clutch play: During clutch time — defined by the NBA as the final five minutes of games with a margin of five points or fewer — Strus has played 47 minutes and the Heat has outscored teams by 23, by far the best on the team. He’s shooting 5 for 12 overall and 5 for 10 on clutch threes.
Robinson has played 43 clutch minutes and is shooting 4 for 11 overall and on threes. Miami is a plus-two in those minutes.
Since moving to the bench, Robinson has averaged 21.6 minutes (down from 26.7 as a starter) and shot 40.5 percent on threes (compared with 36.8 as a starter) while averaging 10.4 points (compared with 11.1 as a starter).
The Heat could look to use Robinson’s contract to help facilitate a trade this offseason. Robinson’s five-year, $90 million deal has four years and $74 million remaining, but only $9.8 million of his $19.8 million salary is guaranteed in the final year of the deal.
The final year becomes fully guaranteed after two days of the signing moratorium in the summer of 2025, according to a source. Hoopshype.com reported Robinson’s final year also becomes fully guaranteed if the Heat wins an NBA championship between 2022 and 2025 season and if he reaches various minutes/games played thresholds along the way.
This story was originally published April 6, 2022 at 3:10 PM.
