Exploring key Heat decisions to be shaped in coming months, including Martin/Oladipo one
The Heat last summer wisely attached a second year on the contracts of Max Strus, Gabe Vincent and Omer Yurtseven, so Miami won’t need to worry about re-signing them this summer. Each of the three will be bargains at $1.8 million next season, with Yurtseven making slightly less than Vincent and Strus.
But four Heat financial decisions will be heavily impacted by what happens during the post-All-Star break schedule and postseason:
1). How much to offer Tyler Herro in a contract extension that he becomes eligible for this summer, a situation explored here.
Herro will make $5.7 million next season regardless of whether he signs an extension that is very likely to be offered. His new deal likely will average at least $20 million per season. It could be $25 million if he plays like an All-Star well into postseason.
2). Whether to offer P.J. Tucker a non-Bird exception (with a starting salary of $8.8 million) if he opts out of his player option for $7.3 million next season. This would seem to be no-brainer; at this point, giving Tucker the higher amount would be fully justified.
The only question would be whether to give Tucker, 36, the full three years. Tucker told me he wants to play at least another two or three years.
3). Whether to re-sign impending unrestricted free agent Victor Oladipo this summer and whether to give him a multiyear deal, knowing a Herro extension likely would push Miami well into the luxury tax in 2023-24 barring a trade of a key piece.
4). How to keep Caleb Martin, an impending restricted free agent who has exceeded all expectations.
There are several mechanisms to re-sign Martin: the Heat’s full $10.1 million midlevel exception, the $4 million biannual exception, a $2.4 million non-Bird exception or the $2 million veteran minimum. None of the four can be combined.
Martin has positioned himself to make more than both the non-Bird exception and veteran minimum. And if he keeps playing at this level, he likely will garner offers exceeding the $4 million biannual exception.
Though the Heat can match outside offers, it cannot exceed the cap to do it unless it uses exception money. If Tucker opts in, the Heat already has $131.4 million in salary cap commitments for nine players next season, well above the projected $121 million cap but well below the $147 million tax.
Martin told me last week that he very much hopes to stay with the Heat next season.
“For sure, I would love to be here,” he said. “I feel like this is my place. I love it here and the people here. Hopefully we can make something work to where I can be here long-term.”
Though the move was inevitable to make him playoff-eligible, Martin appreciates how the Heat moved him from a two-way contract to a standard deal sooner than later.
“With the rules and the way two-ways are set up, they could have waited all the way to the playoffs to convert me,” he said. “I’m incredibly grateful. That speaks volumes of them and what they think about me and how they do things here. They reward people who do the right thing. Obviously, they showed that.”
As for the Oladipo decision, even though the Heat can pay him up to a max deal (highly unlikely) under cap rules because of his Bird Rights, tax considerations could limit Miami’s offer, based on what happens with Tucker and Martin — combined with how well Oladipo plays as he returns from last May’s quad tendon surgery.
Oladipo is nearing a return; he has displayed good mobility, explosion and lateral motion in 2-on-2 workouts observed by reporters. His three-point shooting has been hit-and-miss when I’ve watched him a few times before games and after practice.
Hypothetically, if Tucker gets a new deal at that $8.3 million and Martin gets a deal starting at $8 million, the Heat would be close to $141 million in payroll, with a cap hold for an empty roster spot bringing that total close to $143 million.
That would leave Miami with only about $4 million to give Oladipo and remain under the projected tax line. The Heat might be willing to surpass the tax line if Oladipo and Martin play well in postseason and this team makes a deep playoff run.
So it’s a jigsaw puzzle that the Heat will navigate this offseason.
Another decision that looms: whether to re-sign Dwayne Dedmon to another minimum deal or move ahead with Yurtseven as its backup center.
A more pressing decision: whether to add someone in the buyout market. If an experienced, accomplished power forward who can stretch the floor becomes available, the Heat could have interest.
But nobody fitting that category is available at this point. Players who have appeared in the NBA this season must be released by March 1 to be playoff eligible with another team.
Otherwise, the Heat could use the 15th roster spot on a developmental prospect. The NBA’s trade deadline passed two weeks ago.
THIS AND THAT
Oladipo and Markieff Morris both traveled with the team to New York but will not play in Friday’s game against the Knicks (7:30 p.m., Bally Sports Sun, ESPN).
Morris hasn’t played since sustaining a neck injury when Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic pushed him to the floor late in a game on Nov. 8. According to three sources, the team — for weeks — had concerns about using him in a game because of that injury combined with a previous neck injury. But Morris is now moving closer to a return, with the Heat’s blessing.
Oladipo hasn’t played since last May’s surgery to repair his right quadriceps tendon. Last week, he spent a few days practicing with the Heat’s G League team in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. Coach Erik Spoelstra said last Thursday that Oladipo’s return to game action is not imminent.
The Heat will further update their status following Thursday’s late-afternoon practice in New York City.
▪ Bam Adebayo is happy where the Heat stands, at 38-21 and first in the East.
“We’ve been playing great basketball,” Adebayo said. “We’re still No. 1 in the East.”
Lowry said his first season with the Heat has “been great. It’s been fun, man. I mean look at it, we’ve got a great group. We’ve got a bunch of guys who want to win games.”
▪ While lavishing praise on the Heat and its defensive excellence, ESPN’s Zach Lowe makes an interesting point on the team’s offense in this piece:
“The Heat will sink or swim in the playoffs based on their ability to score in the half court. Spacing gets cramped with Tucker, Butler, and Adebayo on the floor. (Tucker is shooting a league-best 45.5 percent on three-pointers, but almost all his attempts are from the corners; defenses ignore him above the arc, and only kind of guard him in the corners.)
“Miami is seventh in points per possession, but about league average in half-court efficiency, per Cleaning The Glass. Their half court number falls into bottom-five range with the Tucker/Butler/Adebayo trio. [But] Miami makes up for blah spacing with supreme IQ and constant movement.”
This story was originally published February 24, 2022 at 3:20 PM.
